Terry Semel doesn’t get it.

The problem with the straight press is they love all the old horses.  Until a new horse comes riding in to steal the old horses’ thunder.  And all eyes avert.

The Street doesn’t predict change, it only reflects it.

Case in point, Barry Diller.  He was profiled as God everywhere from the "New Yorker" to the Hollywood trades.  Barry went on an hejira and said home shopping via TV was the answer, the FUTURE!  Everybody bowed at his feet and followed him as he slipped from a man who created a fourth TV network to someone rich but irrelevant.  Oh, Barry now controls TicketMaster, and some dating sites and stuff, but you don’t see his name in the paper too often.  God, the last time he got ink was when he got paid big time for the sale of Universal’s TV operations to NBC.  A positively old wave deal.  You see Barry doesn’t count.  He turned out to know nothing other than the business he grew up in, television.  Sure, he’s mustered some assets and created a business, but isn’t it funny that he BOUGHT everything and grew essentially NOTHING?!

The future belongs to the tech guys.

It’s the pipe.  It’s the math, as "BusinessWeek" just said.  It’s not lunch, but the ability to CODE!  And being of a generation that understands what people who use the Net actually WANT!

Kids are not dying to buy TV shows from the Net.  Hell, if they want them they’ll download them, just like music.  To the younger generation, the Net is a free-for-all.  You buy a shitload of tech gear, computers, digital cameras, videocameras, create your own shit and EXHIBIT IT on the Web.  Getting noticed, getting SEEN, COMMUNICATING, is more important than making money, at least at first.  God do the oldsters not know kids.  Today’s generation isn’t about winners and losers but being a member of the COMMUNITY!

Look at Google’s foray into the video sphere.  They’ll host content, FOREVER, FOR FREE!  And now, if you want to charge for said content, they’ll let you.  And, almost a la eBay, you can constantly adjust the price.  Does this resemble the Hollywood model WHATSOEVER?

And then you’ve got Terry Semel and Yahoo.  Boy is this guy fucking up.  He’s gone on a shopping spree.  For EXECUTIVE TALENT!  And who has he signed up?  Not geeks, but Hollywood dealmakers.  Wow, you go and hire the guys who MISSED the tech revolution to STEER the tech revolution?  Wouldn’t this be like Apple Computer paying a premium for Andy Lack?  Or David Munns?  In the latter case someone who does know how to break a record, but doesn’t know SHIT about technology?

Now I’m not saying Yahoo is going to fade overnight.  But propped up by a resurgent online advertising market, Yahoo is spending in ALL THE WRONG DIRECTIONS!  Because Terry Semel is not a geek.  And, to run an enterprise like Yahoo, you need a geek.

Yup, someone who sits in front of the computer for hours.  Who’s purchased something from craigslist.org.  Who’s IM’ed four people at once.  Who downloaded from Napster.  Who’s conversed via iChat AV.  Someone who’s on the pulse, who understands the market, as well as John Kalodner knew hair bands in the eighties.

The geeks shall inherit the earth.  Make no mistake.  Baby boomers and Wall Street will find out last.  It’s not Hollywood redux.  Do you see the labels solving their problems?  Or movie studios?  Whereas a renegade like Steve Jobs keeps pulling rabbits out of his hat, knowing that yesterday is already history and the old tinseltown mantra rules.  As in WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR ME LATELY??

Rupert Murdoch bought MySpace and curtailed free speech.  And is now going to turn it into a portal.  Yeah, that sounds like a recipe for success.  Like all these users can’t be turned off and go somewhere else essentially INSTANTLY!  There’s not a geek in the world who would have made this decision.  Geeks know it’s about the user experience, and trust.  If you can trust a Hollywood executive you just haven’t met one.