The NPD Report

Legal online music stores gain on illegal services

This is fucking crazy.  Doesn’t anybody at Reuters have any power of
ANALYSIS??

In case you missed it, the NPD Group, whoever the hell THAT is, now states
that the iTunes Music Store is the second most popular online music source.  The
report states that 1.7 million U.S. households downloaded at least one song
in March.  NPD says this ties it with Limewire, and puts it right behind WinMX,
which had 2.1 million households using it.

Let’s see.  Assuming these statistics are true…  Isn’t this like saying if
the same number of people visit a 7-11 as a supermarket, sales are equal, 7-11
is TAKING OVER THE WORLD??

If you’re familiar with 7-11, and if you live in the U.S. you must be, you
know the outlets stock limited inventory at EXORBITANT prices.  You only go
there when you’re desperate, for convenience.  Willing to overpay for one item,
knowing you won’t have to wait in a long line to check out.  Hell, they don’t
even have SHOPPING CARTS at 7-11, that’s how little they expect you to buy. 
Hell, they don’t even have those HANDHELD BASKETS!

People go to supermarkets to buy MULTIPLE ITEMS, to STOCK UP!  They don’t log
on to Limewire to download a track or two, they take dozens, hundreds,
sometimes THOUSANDS!!!  How many people log on to the iTMS and download dozens, hundreds, even THOUSANDS of tracks?  HUH??  I’d bet almost NO ONE!!  Because not only do you have to pay, it’s a bad deal.  You’re paying the aliquot price of the CD for a track, and getting shitty sound, copy protection and no artwork. 
This is the savior of the business?  Are you KIDDING ME??

And what about the FREE downloads on the iTMS.  How many of those 1.7 million
visitors just took the FREE track?  Hell, I’ve NEVER purchased anything at
the iTMS, but I’ve downloaded a free Kathleen Edwards track.

This NPD report is the kind of irresponsible research that is flogged by the
RIAA and trumpeted in the media resulting in the public being given a
completely incorrect view of reality.  Kind of like the President stating that CIA
research told him that Iraq had nukes.  Oh, the "New York Times" blindly repeated
this, only checking itself AFTER we invaded Iraq and U.S. soldiers, never
mind many more Iraqis, died.

Face facts.  P2P downloading DWARFS legal downloading.  Sure, P2P is aided by
being FREE, but to only focus on that factor is to miss the issue.  P2P is a
different paradigm of music acquisition.  It’s about downloading MASS
QUANTITIES of music, for which the RIAA and publishers should extract a low price, one spread out over millions of now non-music buying citizens, such that these
entities make MORE money than they do now.  Don’t get people to buy ONE track,
get them to buy TONS, charging them FAR MORE than ONE costs, making them think
they’re getting a deal.  Which, THEY ARE!  But, EVERYBODY IS BENEFITING, the
companies, the creators and the public.

The iTMS is a zit on the ass of online music.  I don’t think it should be
eviscerated, but to see it as the savior of the business is to be so myopic and
ignorant as to make ANYBODY tech-savvy laugh hysterically.

As for Rhapsody, Yahoo! Unlimited and Napster…  You can’t fight human
nature.  TODAY people want to own.  They might want to rent in the future, then
again, the sale of DVDs as opposed to the rental of VHS tapes doesn’t portend
that this will be the case.  Furthermore, why did DVD blow up?  Why does DVD now
eclipse THEATRICAL revenues?  BECAUSE THEY’RE CHEAP!!!!

4 Responses to The NPD Report »»


Comments

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  1. Comment by Dan Millen | 2005/06/15 at 13:45:37

    The report states that 1.7 million U.S. households downloaded at least one song in March

    hehe yeah, if you buy 3 bottles of mountain dew you can download a free song on ITMS, that’s 5.1 million bottles of mountain dew that got consumed last month for all those ITMS downloads;) meanwhile I’ve got 15 simultaneous downloads running on edonkey as I type this… and I didn’t have to pump my body full of nasty sugar, caffiene, food coloring and artificial flavors… ah, the irony

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  3. Comment by Kevin | 2005/06/15 at 13:47:32

    I couldn’t agree more with this analogy. And on that subject, how many of the 430 million downloads that Jobs keeps talking about are from the FREE PEPSI CAPS? Is that actually the number SOLD, or just what’s been DOWNLOADED from the store? I for one still haven’t paid for a single song on iTunes, because it’s so easy to stockpile the caps from people who don’t bother using them.

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  5. Comment by Paul Resnikoff | 2005/06/15 at 13:47:47

    There’s also another problem with the research in my opinion, which is that networks are really left out of this analysis. Overnet, for example, has a long list of clients that cannot compete with Limewire, but which are collectively much bigger. So, a client-by client review misses the real action. And BitTorrent is a whole new can of worms that really throws the client concept out the window.

  6. comment_type != "trackback" && $comment->comment_type != "pingback" && !ereg("", $comment->comment_content) && !ereg("", $comment->comment_content)) { ?>
  7. Comment by Brian O’Neal | 2005/06/15 at 13:48:14

    I’m not exactly a disinterested party since my client is Morpheus, but I
    think the NPD report should be seriously questioned.

    It would seem strange not to mention eDonkey, possibly the most downloaded
    software on a weekly basis right now. Software downloads come from many places
    including CNET and dozens of shareware sites as well as the developer’s own
    servers.

    eDonkey removed itself from CNET for many months, so software download data
    would need come diretly from them. And they have HUGE number. Many MORE than
    Limewire.  Morpheus, Limewire, eDonkey and Bearshare account for over 2 million
    software downloads per week. Not only is NPD getting it wrong, incumbant music
    insudtry executives aren’t marketing to this audience properly. They refuse
    to deal with p2ps.

    Morpheus, eDonkey, Limewire, and Bearshare have all recently removed
    advertising bundles as per a new no adware and no spyware policy from CNET’s
    download.com and are all now listed.  Users are flocking to p2p software in record
    numbers and iTMS sales are up. So what’s the problem?

    I seriously doubt anyone at NPD is even aware of the fact that Morpheus’ new
    proprietary Neo Network has scaling for nearly year with a growing number of
    users at a surprising clip. It will be supported by a new Morpheus 5 client
    which we just released as a Beta.

    Yes, NEOnet is very similiar to Gnutella or FastTrack. It uses DHT
    (distributed hash technology) to scale and find queries with EXACT accuracy.  If there
    is just one file on one user’s computer anywhere in the world, it can be found.

    This underlying technology in Morpheus will applied to IM, VoIP, Mobile Apps,
    email and other applications.  Morpheus is currently licensing the technology
    for such things.

    I have to give props to StreamCast ongoing development of Morpheus and their
    stubborn stance that has enabled them to not be sued into submission by the
    RIAA and MPAA’s interests to control this new distribution channel.


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  1. Comment by Dan Millen | 2005/06/15 at 13:45:37

    The report states that 1.7 million U.S. households downloaded at least one song in March

    hehe yeah, if you buy 3 bottles of mountain dew you can download a free song on ITMS, that’s 5.1 million bottles of mountain dew that got consumed last month for all those ITMS downloads;) meanwhile I’ve got 15 simultaneous downloads running on edonkey as I type this… and I didn’t have to pump my body full of nasty sugar, caffiene, food coloring and artificial flavors… ah, the irony

  2. comment_type == "trackback" || $comment->comment_type == "pingback" || ereg("", $comment->comment_content) || ereg("", $comment->comment_content)) { ?>

    Trackbacks & Pingbacks »»

    1. Comment by Kevin | 2005/06/15 at 13:47:32

      I couldn’t agree more with this analogy. And on that subject, how many of the 430 million downloads that Jobs keeps talking about are from the FREE PEPSI CAPS? Is that actually the number SOLD, or just what’s been DOWNLOADED from the store? I for one still haven’t paid for a single song on iTunes, because it’s so easy to stockpile the caps from people who don’t bother using them.

    2. comment_type == "trackback" || $comment->comment_type == "pingback" || ereg("", $comment->comment_content) || ereg("", $comment->comment_content)) { ?>

      Trackbacks & Pingbacks »»

      1. Comment by Paul Resnikoff | 2005/06/15 at 13:47:47

        There’s also another problem with the research in my opinion, which is that networks are really left out of this analysis. Overnet, for example, has a long list of clients that cannot compete with Limewire, but which are collectively much bigger. So, a client-by client review misses the real action. And BitTorrent is a whole new can of worms that really throws the client concept out the window.

      2. comment_type == "trackback" || $comment->comment_type == "pingback" || ereg("", $comment->comment_content) || ereg("", $comment->comment_content)) { ?>

        Trackbacks & Pingbacks »»

        1. Comment by Brian O’Neal | 2005/06/15 at 13:48:14

          I’m not exactly a disinterested party since my client is Morpheus, but I
          think the NPD report should be seriously questioned.

          It would seem strange not to mention eDonkey, possibly the most downloaded
          software on a weekly basis right now. Software downloads come from many places
          including CNET and dozens of shareware sites as well as the developer’s own
          servers.

          eDonkey removed itself from CNET for many months, so software download data
          would need come diretly from them. And they have HUGE number. Many MORE than
          Limewire.  Morpheus, Limewire, eDonkey and Bearshare account for over 2 million
          software downloads per week. Not only is NPD getting it wrong, incumbant music
          insudtry executives aren’t marketing to this audience properly. They refuse
          to deal with p2ps.

          Morpheus, eDonkey, Limewire, and Bearshare have all recently removed
          advertising bundles as per a new no adware and no spyware policy from CNET’s
          download.com and are all now listed.  Users are flocking to p2p software in record
          numbers and iTMS sales are up. So what’s the problem?

          I seriously doubt anyone at NPD is even aware of the fact that Morpheus’ new
          proprietary Neo Network has scaling for nearly year with a growing number of
          users at a surprising clip. It will be supported by a new Morpheus 5 client
          which we just released as a Beta.

          Yes, NEOnet is very similiar to Gnutella or FastTrack. It uses DHT
          (distributed hash technology) to scale and find queries with EXACT accuracy.  If there
          is just one file on one user’s computer anywhere in the world, it can be found.

          This underlying technology in Morpheus will applied to IM, VoIP, Mobile Apps,
          email and other applications.  Morpheus is currently licensing the technology
          for such things.

          I have to give props to StreamCast ongoing development of Morpheus and their
          stubborn stance that has enabled them to not be sued into submission by the
          RIAA and MPAA’s interests to control this new distribution channel.

        This is a read-only blog. E-mail comments directly to Bob.