You either have it or you don’t.

That was Billy Beane’s take. The aged scouts would always see potential. Billy thought potential was bullshit. Instead of fantasizing about tomorrow’s statistics, it was better to look at what the player had already accomplished. The only dreaming done was by the players who wanted to be in the big leagues. Then again, many didn’t even do this, because they didn’t possess the qualities the scouts were looking for… And what were scouts looking for first and foremost? Players who LOOKED RIGHT!

Yes, the best indicator of future performance was your god-given looks. Didn’t matter if you could really hit the ball, if you had the physique, they were interested. They’d teach you how to employ those muscles to power home runs. Only this rarely happened.

Sound familiar?

The major labels are in decline, but if you want to sign with one, you’d better look the part. You’d better not be difficult. They want artists they can mold. But the best artists are unmoldable.

The best label ever was run by Mo Ostin. Warner Brothers. Mo specialized in finding true artists and letting them do their thing. This is positively scary to business people, but this is the key to long term success.

Finding someone who can already play, who’s performed gigs, who’s got an audience. That’s a better strategy than starting from scratch. Which is why the Warner catalog is so valuable today and Arista’s is not. Clive made stars, through smoke and mirrors, via publicity and promotion, engaging the best songwriters to prop up the image. But mostly it was image. The tracks were successes, but the performers were empty vessels.

But the Dead and Prince and Neil Young… They’re still working today. Their songs are being played on the radio. They had it to begin with. Might have taken them some time to find their way, but there was no development by the label, no coaching, no cowriting, they were on their own road of discovery.

Now things are different today. Major labels are in the Top Forty business. Which is so hollowed out, even the audience doesn’t believe these people are artists, entitled to a career.

And there’s no sieve to separate the wannabes from the true artists in the rest of the world.

But I’ll make it simple.

If you’re getting no reaction, you’re not doing it right. That’s today’s test. Not whether a middle man will sign you, but whether the audience believes in you, wants to hear more.

As for longevity, you’ve got to have a body of work, you’ve got to stand for something. You’ve got to convince the audience you’re real. Everybody loves a catchy ditty, but that doesn’t mean they believe you’re gonna last.

Look at Rebecca Black. She and her delusional mother can’t see "Friday" was a fluke. She should stay in school. Laugh at her success. Because it’s all she’s gonna get.

But forgetting the ridiculous, let’s look at Owl City. The guy had a hit, now his career is shit, almost nonexistent. Whereas Bon Iver hasn’t had a hit, but he can play multiple theatre gigs in Los Angeles, thousands of people a night, because he’s got an army of believers.

It’s not about casting a wide net and trying to catch everybody. It’s about starting with ones and twos and trying to build a sustainable base. And these people will spread the word much better than any high-priced publicity campaign.

You’ve got to get good on your own. Your potential should be innate. It should not be dependent on the glommed-on work of the usual suspects. If you can’t do it by yourself, you’re not gonna last.