I read in "New York" magazine that the New York Racing Association was going to shut down today.  But the state government gave it a $25 million loan, so it could keep the Belmont, Aqueduct and Saratoga tracks running.  Wise move?

I remember the Aqueduct ads growing up.  Horses running in dim light, was this fun to watch?  Turns out it was about gambling.  But even that’s off.  OTB (Off Track Betting) went bust in December.  4.5 million people went to an NYRA track in 1987, only 1.7 million went last year.  But you don’t have to bet at the track!  But betting plunged from $6.53 billion in ’87 to $2.45 billion last year.  The hope is to save the NYRA by installing slot machines at the track, but is this wise?

Bookies Gone Broke

Atlantic City saw its gaming revenues drop 13.4% in November 2009.

Atlantic City casino revenues drop 13 percent compared to a year ago

And Nevada gambling revenues dropped 6% in April.

Nevada gaming revenues dip almost 6 percent in April

I thought gambling was supposed to be recession-proof!  Like the movies!

Well, if it wasn’t for "Avatar", heads would be rolling in Hollywood.  Attendance at movies is down 2.7% this year.  Leave out "Avatar" and attendance would be down 12.9%. 

At Box Office, ‘Avatar’ Cast As Savior

My colleague Patrick Goldstein at the "Los Angeles Times" believes it’s about quality, that moviegoers are desirous of an original script instead of ongoing sequel-mania. 

Why does Hollywood’s heat of the summer box office feel so ice cold?

And then there’s the music business.  Where sales of recorded music are disastrous and they’re literally giving tickets away to shows.  Is it about quality, or can people just not afford it?

The entertainment industry has been pointing fingers for a decade, especially in music.  If only they shut down Napster, if only iTunes raised prices, if only ticket-scalping could be eliminated, we’d return to the glory days of the past.  Is this reasonable?  Better yet, is it rational?

One thing we do know, people will show up in mass quantities for hits.  Whether it be "Avatar" or "GaGa", grosses are great.  But once you come down from the pinnacle, people are holding their purse strings ever-tighter.  They’re just not buying tickets in knee-jerk fashion.  Which means that quality’s got to go way up, or expectation of revenue’s got to go way down.

This is anathema to the entertainment industry, where every film and record is seen as a breakthrough, trendsetting, a must-have.  But if women don’t want the savagely-reviewed "Sex and the City 2", with all those clothes and their favorite characters, then maybe quality counts.  Maybe most people don’t see today’s music as vital.  Maybe most people believe a show is so expensive, they don’t want to go, unless they’re guaranteed to have a good time.

Wow.

Imagine Doug Morris or Lucian Grainge going to the head of Vivendi and saying there’s just not that much money in recorded music anymore.  Or Michael Rapino going to Wall Street and lowering expectations.  This is sacrilegious!  They all say they’re tinkering with the formula, they’re gonna get it right, revenue is going to return!

Maybe, when the recession is done.  But when is that gonna be?  Wall Street might be cruising, but jobs amongst the hoi polloi are anything but plentiful, and bankers only want to overpay to see the hits.

Maybe there need to be fewer shows.  With only hit acts.

Or cheaper shows for developing acts.

One thing we know is people aren’t coming.  They haven’t stopped completely, but most people don’t want to see average or marginal talent.  And as hard as it used to be to build a star, it’s even more difficult in today’s media-saturated world.