That’s where we always have lunch.

I had a crazy day.  First I had to drop my car off for service.  The taillights stopped working.  Right after the machine falls out of warranty?  The bill will be…somewhere between $200 and $900.  There’s a short in the system. BUT I THOUGHT JAPANESE CARS WEREN’T SUPPOSED TO BREAK!  And my service writer, who I set up the appointment with, called in sick.  And the car I rented, a Pontiac G6, has such poor visibility, I won’t even play the radio, needing to concentrate fully to make sure I don’t inadvertently hit any munchkins or run over some low-flying debris.  And after a dr.’s appointment, I had lunch with Mike Caren.

They say the major labels are out of touch, that no one there is living in this century.  But Mike’s as hip as the teenagers.  And unlike a bunch of whiners, Mike has hits.  Flo Rida, T.I., Plies…  Mike knows what’s going on.  And what’s happening shocks me.

Did you know that some lawyers now want ten or fifteen percent?  And there are managers who require twenty five to thirty five percent?  If the label wants 360, and you’re in business with these aforementioned shysters, how are you supposed to make any money?

Then again, Mike referenced the managers who say they’re labels.  They’ve got a record company where they’ll split the revenue and an in-house radio promotion person, but what manager is going to go in the red?  And if so, how far?  The major label has resources, they invest.

But how long does it take to build a touring act?  Five albums and ten years? By then, is the act free and clear of the 360 anyway?

I’m laughing, because I don’t understand the whole paradigm, this hit music thing.  I’ve been listening to XM’s 20 on 20.  I can see appreciating the Black Eyed Peas if you’re ten…  Then again, that’s who Mike says buys on iTunes, ten year olds.  Their parents don’t want them stealing, don’t want them looking at porn, so they cough up the money to Steve Jobs.  R&B? Disastrous on iTunes.

Mike breaks his records in the clubs.  Then goes to radio.

And when an act breaks, anticipation is the next record will sell no better than the one before.  After all, if you do ten percent better and sales keep falling by ten percent a year, you’re even!

And now pennies count.  The key is to be profitable, to sell enough records to cover your reduced costs.  So you can keep the lights on, so you can still keep making records.  Then again, what business is the major label in? Selling records or artist development?  If the latter, according to Mike, shouldn’t the album be FREE?  At least the first couple?  I think it’s about getting attention first and foremost, Mike thinks you’ve got to make it easy, but the publishers won’t.  You can’t give away tracks on iTunes because the publishers want to get PAID!

Wow.

On one hand, we’ve got the aging superstars.  Overcharging to fewer and fewer people.

On the other, we’ve got the Top Forty wonders, making ever more boring records for a shrinking market.

Speaking of those records…  So many hits are recorded with Fruity Loops, or Garage Band, free software that lays out the formula, but contains no innovation.  Mike is listening for the unexpected, but not only the hip-hoppers, but the rock acts too are going with formula. Whenever Mike hires a session musician, he’s over thirty five.  If he ever meets a younger player, he pleads with him to continue, but is it possible, with work drying up?

We’re ready for a musical revolution.  The old hands are squeezing the old formula dry.  If we’re not making enough money, we’ll just take it from the act! But what kind of act wants to give up all that action?  Maybe someone completely down on his luck, but anybody with a brain is going to do it alone, or develop a Website.  And speaking of Websites, everybody’s so busy surfing they’re not working on their chops!  There used to be no options, your guitar was your ticket out of nowhere.  Now you can just log on to the Net and connect.  At least that’s what Mike says.

And the new acts, they need money.  Is the aforementioned manager willing to put up the dough?  Almost never, not in copious amounts, that’s the label’s gig.  Who, other than the label, is willing to lose money to make money?  The big managers only want profitable acts.

This is the view from inside the gold mine.  Forget the baby boomers who are collecting paychecks until their ever-nearer retirement.  Young record makers, like Mike, who’s thirty two, they still care.  What’s going to happen in TWENTY YEARS?

I think Irving’s gonna put all the control in the hands of the acts.  I think the lack of fair accounting, transparent accounting, and the adversarial relationship is killing the majors.  Who are signing ever fewer acts, and want the lion’s share of the money.

But someone’s gonna develop something new.

It’s 1963 all over again.  We’re ready for a new Beatles.  But I bet they don’t come from any of the usual suspects.

Then again, they’ll have to be innovative and different.  Not cookie-cutter, not "the song of the summer" which you forget and never want to hear again except at a camp reunion.  Then again, how long has it been since music has driven the culture?

Interesting times.

P.S. My car will be fixed for free.  The new battery the dealer installed during the last warranty service was the wrong one, it was too powerful and it fried all the electronics.