Will probably never happen.

Chances are, even if you’re supporting yourself playing music and have a hard core fan base, most people in your neighborhood will have no idea who you are.

Used to be there were markers. Getting signed. Hearing your song on the radio. Going to #1 on SoundScan. All those things can still happen, it’s just their significance is ever-smaller. You can achieve ALL of the above things and still be a one hit wonder. Odds are the band playing live every night of the week will have a longer career than you do. In other words, as the Firesign Theatre once said, everything you know is wrong.

If you’re waiting for acknowledgement, acceptance by the powers-that-be… I hate to tell you, but the powers-that-be no longer exist. Last week the "New York Times" let Jeff Leeds go. Not because he was doing a bad job, but because they needed to reduce their headcount. What, there’s no longer going to be any music industry news? No, it’s just that the paper of record can no longer afford to cover it, the paper of record is trying to avoid a hostile takeover, going out of business itself.

The radio station? You have to ask yourself, do YOU listen to the radio? Do your FRIENDS listen to the radio? Chances are, the answer is no. So, if your demo is not listening, what difference does it make if you’re getting airplay there. If you are garnering fans, chances are they’re not the ones you want. And Top Forty fans, the only format that truly means anything anymore, are notoriously fickle. A number one radio record is akin to being the star magician at the old folks home. A minor figure in a dying world that most people want no part of.

The label? Everybody hates the major labels. They’re the ones suing their customers, right? The ones who tell you what to record and when. Your mother might be impressed that you’ve got a lawyer and a record company, but the public still has no idea who you are, and chances are, never will.

And without the mainstream media attention, the record company push, that breakthrough gig…that can’t happen anymore either.

In other words, if you’re playing with the old scorecard, you must be mightily confused, because that’s for the old game.

The new scorecard is all about fans. How can you make more fans, and make them stick! Collecting friends on MySpace is quantifiable, but MySpace is about getting laid and there’s almost no loyalty involved. If MySpace friends made music careers, you’d be spinning Tila Tequila’s record right now. You might have a desire to have sex with her, but you don’t want to listen to her music. She’s got no talent.

Who has talent?

You’ve got to believe you have talent. Doesn’t matter if the label thinks so, chances are they won’t sign you and if they do, they can’t break you. If you’re looking for some powerful person to wave his hand and say you’re great, you’re delusional. If you believe in yourself enough to put you and your music out there, you’ll continue to be able to play it if people want to hear it. It’s just that simple. Doesn’t matter whether it’s good or bad, but whether you’ve got an audience. If you get an instant audience, great, you’ll probably have a career. If not, chances are you suck, or if you don’t suck, you’re not making music most people want to hear. Don’t cry in your beer, either give up, change your act or accept your fate, as a marginal artist.

The big breaks today?

1. Being able to give up your day job. Used to be, you got signed, you thought you’d made it, you were just a year or so from going back to McDonald’s, behind the counter. Today, since you’ve invested in yourself, built everything yourself, if you can shitcan your day job and make it playing music, kick back and have a drink, congratulate yourself, you’ve truly made it. Carly Smithson had a record deal and national TV exposure and she’s still pulling drinks in a bar in San Diego, or will be again soon. That’s the first hurdle, earning your freedom from the everyday grind.

2. Which may come before 1, getting an agent. It’s hard to book yourself. The road is where you make money. If someone’s interested in booking you, they think they can make money on you, they want their 10%. This is a good sign. This is more important than getting a record deal.

3. Owning something besides an amp and your instrument. Maybe it’s a car, maybe it’s real property. But once your musical enterprise is generating enough extra cash that you can acquire extraneous items, you’ve truly made it.

4. And this can happen anywhere in the food chain, really. An act YOU respect says it likes YOUR music.

5. You play larger and larger venues and your merch numbers grow.

And that’s about it. There is no pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, if there’s even a rainbow. It’s just you, playing music, for people who love it. There’s no awards show, no instant cash, no front page story, nothing that you can show to your relatives that will make them finally realize you’ve made it.

It’s now about being a musician, not a star. Savor the little victories, because that’s all you’re going to get, that’s all that’s out there. The night you were in the zone playing for 3,500 adoring fans. It’s not about the coverage in "Rolling Stone", they’re putting bimbos on the cover. It’s about what you feel inside, the self-satisfaction. You’re not only a player, you now own the game. It’s a big responsibility, are you up to it?