1. Steve Jobs

It’s kind of like the Beatles, the best is the BIGGEST!

Oh, there were people who hated the Beatles.  Then again, these detractors
had the Stones.  So far, a Stones hasn’t appeared in the world of digital music.
 Probably because the rest of the marketplace doesn’t seem to understand. 
It’s all about the SOFTWARE!

Sure, the iPod is cool, featuring amazing design.  But what is even MORE
amazing is when you plug your iPod into your computer and all your music flies to
it at a second a track, with no glitches.

If Microsoft wanted to compete it would create a better iTunes.  But,
Microsoft hasn’t ever shipped a product that didn’t need three iterations to be
SERVICEABLE!

You’d think that Microsoft made MS DOS/Windows the default.  But IBM did
that, by using the software, by giving it its imprimatur.  Otherwise, MS
DOS/Windows is another CP/M.  For some reason Redmond thinks that its market
share/monopoly in the past allows it to have a monopoly in the future.  Which is why the company is suddenly behind the eight ball.  Just read last week’s front page
story in the WSJ on how fucked up the company is for edification.  Then again,
Microsoft could make progress by giving up WMA.

Microsoft’s got the game all wrong.  It thinks its customers are the
corporations.  Yes, their operating system monopoly was built on the back of business, but music is ruled by the people.  Microsoft gives the corporations
everything they want, digital rights management, whereas the public wants FREEDOM!  Microsoft could make an end run around Apple by embracing open standards, but that’s not their style.  They want to own everything!

Actually, Apple is employing an open standard.  AAC is based on MPEG-4.  It’s
just the DRM, FairPlay, that’s proprietary.  But, I’ve got to tell you, the
DRM/FairPlay/iTunes Music Store arm of the enterprise is almost irrelevant. 
You see Apple’s iTunes software supports the standard, MP3.  It rips CDs.  And,
the iPod will accept stolen P2P tracks just as well as it will iTunes Music
Store bought copy protected AACs.  The key isn’t to get Jobs to have variable
pricing on tracks but to find a way to monetize the trading of files P2P.  More
tracks are traded in a month than are sold on disc in a year.  One would think
that the labels would try to capture this market.  But they’d rather argue
with a king more powerful, HIPPER than they are, about some sideshow.  Really,
step back and have a look.  It’s utterly laughable.

2. Eric Garland

The RIAA is a disinformation organization.  As bad as any Third World
government entity.  If you believe what the RIAA has to say, you probably believe
Paul McCartney is dead.  Or that Enron is still a burgeoning corporation.

Despite a slight sales renaissance in the first half of 2004, CD sales have
continued to drop.  DRAMATICALLY!

And P2P trading continues to go up.

RIAA lawsuits have decimated trading not a whit.  Whatever b.s. they spin.

Thank god there’s a counterbalance to the disinformation.  That’s this man,
head of BigChampagne.  Now, the mainstream press is catching on.  They’re
calling Eric for the truth.  And they’re printing it.

More music for more people.  That’s the formula of the future.  That’s what
Napster wrought.  The labels just have to monetarily harness reality.  You
can’t stop trading, you can’t stop passing on.  The key is not to try and
eviscerate this behavior but to CHARGE FOR IT!  It’s just like performing rights
societies.  All those restaurants, bars and coffee shops have BMI and ASCAP
licenses.  Every Internet user who trades music should have a license to do so also. 
Sure, they won’t pay much, but think of all those CUSTOMERS!  Suddenly music
goes from being something people can’t afford to a commodity that is embraced
by EVERYBODY!  The labels make more money.  The artists make more money.  Live
business explodes.  Please tell me what’s wrong with this formula.

3. Coran Capshaw

God bless the entrepreneur.  Unlike the execs who played games to make it to
the top of the corporate ladder, Coran Capshaw built his own.  No one can take
it away from him.  No one can fire him.

Oh, Dave Matthews can let him go.  But now it’s not only Dave’s touring
business, it’s the complete MusicToday empire.

Unlike Clive Davis, who is courting the press 24/7, spending a fortune to
look good, Coran flies completely under the radar.  But I would be surprised if
Coran had less money than Clive.

Yup, while you’re watching one game, the major label circus, that world is
being eroded by what you deem irrelevant.  Coran started with a bar, not an MBA.
 He built his empire on live music.  Where the buck stops.  Where if you
can’t play, you’re done.

And, because of this background, other managers trust him with their
merchandising business.  When most managers won’t trust ANYONE, for fear they’re going to encroach on their territory.

Nobody studies the music business.  It’s not something you can learn in
school.  But, if you’re new to the game and you want to know how it’s done pay
attention to Coran.  He’s got money, power and credibility.  Everything you want.

4. Jimmy Iovine

Jimmy played it the opposite of Coran.  He started out on the outside, but
needed to be IN!

A psychiatrist could do an amazing workup.  Jimmy NEEDS the money.  He NEEDS
the power.  He NEEDS to be at the center of every deal.  And this incredible
desire with a ton of street smarts results in the power Jimmy possesses.

I don’t know if Jimmy is truly artist-friendly, but having spent all those
hours in the studio he certainly understands artists.  He can speak their
language.  And this counts.  Believe me, when you take a real artist out to Arnie
Morton’s in a limo talking about making him a star he thinks you’re a jerk and
doesn’t trust you at all, whereas when Jimmy speaks, creative people listen.

Jimmy can win any bidding war.  And for a man who’s sucking at the corporate
tit he gives the impression he’s for the artist first.  An amazing dance. 
Then again, artists were never known for their sophistication.  And, at this
point, Jimmy, Zach and Doug essentially OWN Universal, since everybody at the
parent company is clueless when it comes to music.  Then again, they don’t want
stock, they just want cash, and they get it.

And freedom.  Jimmy doesn’t even have to give the company 100% of his time.

But really, it’s the web of relationships and the resulting favors and pure
desire that make it all work.  Jimmy took an almost stiff Gwen Stefani album
and made it a hit.  That’s what Jimmy does.  He believes in success.  He doesn’t
need to be the guy on the cover of the magazine but he needs you to know HE’S
THE GUY!

5. Michael Rapino

This ain’t your father’s Clear Channel.  Not even the Mays family Clear
Channel anymore.  Actually, isn’t it SPINCO?

My only problem with Rapino is he takes it too seriously.  As if he BIRTHED
the concert business.  Hey Michael, you’re just a MANAGER!

But what a manager he is.

If you’re not a winner, if you don’t produce, if you don’t want to be held
accountable, don’t work for Clear Channel.  Or, as some employees put it, FEAR
CHANNEL!

But, Rapino had to shake the company up.  It was dysfunctional.

There’s no question who the boss is now.  And the boss wants progress.

I’m sick and tired of hearing him tell me how he’s trying, just like he’s
sick and tired of hearing me beat up what’s wrong with his enterprise and the
concert business at large, but he IS trying!

It’s Rapino who’s for change.  He’s the one who wants to bring guarantees
down.  AEG is just the new boss, same as the old boss.  But with less debt and no
shed stranglehold.

As we march forward, the road is becoming more important.  MTV plays no
music.  Terrestrial radio plays almost no music.  Both are dishonest outlets that
can’t be trusted.  Whereas live music is SOLELY about trust.  A bond between
performer and fan.

It’s gonna start small.  In clubs.

It’s gonna be about customer service, respecting the patron.

Rapino cares about all this.  He wants better food.  He wants lower
TicketMaster fees.  He’s tried to bring down ticket prices.

We haven’t seen the end of this movie, but you’ve got to root for this guy. 
He’s just not another old guard player looking for the day his retirement
package kicks in.

6. Q Prime/Front Line

They hate each other but they’re the two management powerhouses.  All the
eyes on Kwatinetz are looking in the wrong direction.  The Firm is Sanctuary lite.

Back in the day the manager was king.  Then, in the nineties, the LABEL
became the manager.  And all the middle level managers went to work for the label! 
Don’t forget where Will Botwin came from.  And Danny Goldberg had the best
non-metal roster in the business but jumped ship to work for the man.

But Cliff and Peter and Irving stayed on the sidelines.  Because, if you know
these guys, they can’t work for anybody else.  They’re independent
entrepreneurs.

Irving specializes in getting money from other people.  That’s why it didn’t
work when he had his own label.  He couldn’t argue and sue HIMSELF!  But,
underneath the zealous tactics is a guy who just wants to hang and be your friend.
 Irving talks to everybody, not only the powerful people.  And that’s how he
stays on top.

As to whether his new Front Line ends up ruling the earth…we’ll see.

But I like the strategy.  Irving was telling me how a label wanted a piece of
one of his artist’s VOICE TONES!  Yup, this artist’s VOICE was being used as
a cell phone ring, NOT the music!  The corporation said it was their COMPANY
POLICY!  After acquiring assets Irving now wants to tell these motherfuckers
it’s HIS corporate policy not to give up a piece of this action, never mind
slices of a million other bits.

And now Irving’s back together with accountant extraordinaire Howard Kaufman.
 I think Howard burns out acts.  He’s much more interested in the now than
the future.  But, if you want to go on the road and clean up TODAY, he’s your
man.  God, they might as well build him an office at Clear Channel, that’s how
much control he’s got.

Cliff and Peter are different.  Cliff’s an intellectual.  If you want
strategy, Q Prime is the place to be.  If you want someone to argue it out with you,
Q Prime is the place to be.  Unlike Howard, Q Prime is ONLY interested in the
career.  Every move is part of a giant puzzle, made to sustain the act’s
career.  And their three biggest acts, Metallica, Shania Twain and the Red Hot
Chili Peppers, are the biggest acts in their respective genres.

If you want to be with an insider, go with Irving.  He plays the game, albeit
by his own rules.

If you want to be aligned with a renegade, who has no allegiance to a
corporation and is just as outside as you are, go with Q Prime.

Or, maybe you can find one of those one act managers.  Bruce Allen actually
has more than one charge, but he treats every one like they’re the only one. 
Bruce CARES, and fights with the best.  And don’t think Sheryl Crow would be
better off with anyone other than Scooter Weintraub.

Managers are gaining power every day.  As the major label monolith erodes. 
These are the guys who count.

7. Pitchforkmedia, et al

Only a broad stroke old fogey like Clive Davis plays to mainstream media
anymore.  Whether it be TV OR the press.  The new players, the twentysomethings,
they know the old game is dead.  It’s no longer about hype, rather it’s about
credibility.  It’s not about paying people off to SAY they believe but finding
people who REALLY DO!

Pitchfork is as powerful as "Rolling Stone" was in the sixties.

In the seventies "Rolling Stone" gained its preeminent, market-dominating
position.  It became the anointed bible.  Will pitchforkmedia play this role?

Unclear.

But we DO know that the next step, the next battlefield, is FILTERS!  Places
on the Web that weed through all the information and tell you what’s good. 
Like Google.  Search used to be almost unusable, you could never find what you
were looking for.  Now you EXPECT to find what you’re looking for.

But Google is dumb.  Software ain’t gonna be the new filter, people are. 
People you don’t know the name of yet.  Who don’t do it for the paycheck, but the
music.  People web surfers can TRUST!

And, you won’t have to buy the CD for fifteen bucks to find out if they’re
right, you’ll just download the tracks.  Only keeping them if you like them. 
You can tell me this ain’t the way it’s going to be, but I’m going to tell you
THIS IS THE WAY IT ALREADY IS!  You can send a track via e-mail, never mind
classic P2P.  And there’s no copy protection that can’t be broken.

8. Yahoo/AOL

They’re both disasters.  Terry Semel thinks the Web is like TV, he hired a
bunch of old wave execs who are going to put an audacious dent in the portal’s
bottom line.  The web isn’t about shows, but INFORMATION!  And right now, Yahoo
has the best music information.  And, a full slate of music videos.

AOL’s got the opposite problem.  It was never hip.  Its glory days are behind
it.  But maybe that makes the company work harder, take bigger chances. 
AOL’s now a portal.  Their music services are free.  They simulcast Live 8 and
proved the viability of a medium most people thought was destined to never take
hold.  The WEBCAST!

Major labels are all about restrictions.  The Internet is about casting those
restrictions aside.  You want to make MORE available, at a LOWER COST!  Sure,
charge Yahoo and AOL for your content, they ARE building businesses on your
back, but don’t charge the customer.  Especially not when you’re trying to turn
them on to something.

If Yahoo and AOL were smart, they’d make their sites more hip.  You don’t
have to worry about scaring off the casual user, everybody WANTS to be hip.

But hip is about all that MTV.com has got.  The site doesn’t run fast.  It’s
got the faux-community of the TV channel.  It’s got no soul, no earthiness,
it’s not where music lives, but where people who employ music as grease, who
don’t LIVE for it, go.

Rollingstone.com could have ruled, but they blew it long ago.

First comes information, then comes community.  Actually, community is
completely secondary at music portals like Yahoo and AOL.  Community’s for MySpace.  The twain don’t meet.  You don’t hang out and talk at the library.  You don’t read at the club.

Acts might break at MySpace, but that’s not what Yahoo and AOL are about. 
They’re not breaking acts, they’re tools, like craigslist.org, where you can go
to FIND OUT THINGS!  Once they start trying to break acts, they lose their
non-soul.  Like AOL’s Warner Music reality show.  God, didn’t anybody at AOL ever
see Zeppelin, never mind the DEAD?

I know, it sounds murky.  Not completely defined.

But that’s the web.  A place where you can blow all your money trying to be
the next big thing.  But, one thing for sure we know is that SOMEWHERE on the
web will be the next big thing, rolling in dough.

And never forget, music video isn’t dead, it’s just moved to the web.  Every
act should have a video.  An inexpensive PERFORMANCE video.  It’s about
familiarizing yourself with the act, not being DAZZLED!  Hell, the screen is small,
the resolution is bad, but the sound…the sound remains.

9. Roger Ames

Doug Morris with fewer years and less of a need for the glory.

Roger’s a weird combination.  He knows the music, he LOVES the music, and he
knows the money.  There’s not a single man working at a major label with this
exact combination.

Warner and EMI are going to merge.  And EMI is going to come out the winner. 
Lyor will be history instantly.  As will Edgar Bronfman, Jr.  Hell, he lost
control of a major label group once already.

And this leaves Levy, Munns and Ames in charge.

Levy knows no tech.  Munns specializes in marketing.  Ames, the man you
rarely hear about anymore, he knows it all.

A different man would have sat on the sidelines, living off his millions.  Or
gone into business for himself, LOSING his millions.  But Roger jumped back
in.  He needs the action.  He’s the one to watch.

10. Hugh Panero

Mel Karmazin gets all the ink, but Hugh’s the man.

Irrelevant of Stern, XM has the head start.  And has systems in place to
maintain their lead.

Will satellite ultimately rule?

I’m not guaranteeing it will.  But people need to listen to SOMETHING in
their cars.  And terrestrial radio is UNLISTENABLE!  Even its one star, talk, has
way too many commercials.  While you hear Mel going on and on about ads has
Hugh been talking up spots?  No!  Because they’re a TURN-OFF!

XM is the future.  XM is narrowcasting.  A channel for every taste.  Hell,
I’ve had the service for YEARS and I’ve barely dented it.

The old days of growing a superstar that everybody knows are ALREADY done. 
Just look at the sales chart.  The days of the diamond seller are history. 
God, multiplatinum is rare!

It’s like cable TV.  The future is about choice.  He who provides said choice
wins.  By cutting rosters and employees the major labels are shooting
themselves in the foot.  Unless you’re servicing everybody, you’re losing market
share.  The future is about selling FEWER copies of a VAST QUANTITY of music.

It’s all about the factory installs.  That’s why Internet radio has its hand
tied behind its back in the auto world.  Satellite is JUST making inroads.  In
the near future EVERY car will be satellite-ready, and THEN you’ll see major
labels tearing their hair out, saying they can’t get enough SPINS to make it
worth their while!

Meanwhile, the indies, purveyors of niche product, will use specific channels
to gain a foothold in the marketplace, which they will grow.  It will be like
the sixties all over again.  With bands playing theatres every night of the
week.

And this will be good.

The end is not coming, the future is gonna be great.  Music will be a
laughable second-rate cousin to movies and TV no more.  Music’s gonna RULE!