Does Paul not know that NOBODY cares?

Nobody wants new material from a Beatle.

Oh, I think it’s a good idea for him to make a deal with Starbucks.  He’ll get positioning, and a healthy cut of the proceeds, but the album will STILL stiff.

It’s been so long since Paul McCartney has put out an album you wanted to hear ten minutes, never mind ten years, after it finished playing, he’s completely eviscerated the trust, the BOND with his audience.

But that doesn’t really matter.  Because no one EXPECTS the material of ANY has-been/classic rock/baby boomer act to be any good.

Do you think Carlos Santana could come back TODAY?

No fucking way.

Oh, he could get on the "Today Show", but he could never get on  Top Forty radio.  And not many people are listening to Top Forty radio and…

The mainstream is imploding.  If you’re in the disc business, you’d better be niche, or you’d better GET OUT!

Your only hope is to put out something SO far under the radar that people will seek it out as a badge of honor.  But with the search and destroy marketing campaign that will accompany McCartney’s record, people will RUN!

McCartney could put out something good, and forget the marketing, rely on word of mouth.  But has he got anything good in him?  Probably not.  Most classic artists don’t, sorry to say.  Maybe if we took away all his MONEY McCartney might surprise us, but he’s just not hungry enough anymore, he’s been to the top of the world, he just wants to keep his place there.

But even Madonna can’t keep her place at the top.  Does anybody know she put out that album of her tour?

It’s getting pretty desperate out there.  The mainstream music business, it’s COLLAPSING!

The only way you seem to be able to SELL tonnage is to get on Top Forty radio.  But that’s not really Top Forty, that’s urban and pop.  And you’ve got to be YOUNG!  And, those hip-hop albums, they’re not moving AT ALL!

So, you can sell the MOST albums at Top Forty, but it’s still fifty percent less than you used to be able to move, if not less.

Not that you’d know this if you listen to the hype.  The problem with music sales is that people are STEALING!  If we could just get them to stop STEALING, we’d be in GOOD SHAPE!

Well, it would be great to get the revenue from all that P2P action.  But that’s still not going to give you massive hits.

In other words, the blockbuster is dead.

And this is big news to the majors, because THEIR WHOLE MODEL is built on blockbusters!

They don’t want anything that sells 250,000.  And they can’t make any money on gold.  And all the marketing is built on relationships/trade-out, hell, they fired all the employees who do the grunt work in the trenches.

As we sit here right now, music is turning into TV.  The networks used to have 90+% of the market prior to cable.  Now they barely have over 30%.  The rest is sliced and diced amongst niches.  Instead of selling ten million of a blockbuster, we’ll be very lucky if we sell two.  While a ZILLION indies take over the rest of the sales landscape.

This is fact.

And where does it leave Mr. McCartney?  He wants a blockbuster in an era where there NO LONGER are blockbusters.

If he’s in it for the money, for the quick sale, he did the right thing by going into business with Starbucks.

If he’s in it for the career…

I’d tell him to forget about the hype and make an album as good as "Band On The Run".  But I don’t think he can make that record.

Or, he could go into partnership with Clive Davis, and sing old standards.

But he’d be lucky to move a million after selling his soul.

Used to be that Starbucks was a filter.  But the company burned that out.  If a record is hyped by Starbucks it’s now MEANINGLESS!  The only advantage to going with the company is positioning.  Yup, you’ve got the disc in front of the target demo, there is very little competing product.  But there’s no heat.  Even Starbuckians have iPods.  And although some have no impulse control, there’s no longer any mania associated with music at the coffee company.

This is a flawed concept, Starbucks’ move into entertainment.  Music, and movies, will live on the Web.  To embrace them at physical retail is utterly, incomprehensibly, stupid.  If the company was smart they’d sell something that CAN’T be replicated on the Web, like the drink that earns them their main revenue.  But no, since Howard Schultz had one success, everybody believes he’s untouchable, that everything he does will win.

That’s not Howard Schultz, that’s Steve Jobs.

If only McCartney could emulate Jobs.  If only McCartney could unveil something SPECTACULAR where everybody is paying attention.  And then let the media and the public hype it and sell it.

But that would be too scary, McCartney needs INSURANCE!  He’s gonna be in every magazine and on every TV show that will have him.  Saying this album is his best ever.  And if he thinks people are paying attention, that they care, then he’s even more out of touch than I think he is.

We’re immune to the messages, we want quality, undersold.

But it must be quality.

That’s what sold Starbucks coffee, quality.  At least PERCEIVED quality.

Unfortunately, there’s no perceived quality in the whole MUSIC sphere.  From the Pussycat Dolls to the Shins.  Unless you’re a believer, you’ve tuned out.  THIS is the problem.  The great mass of humanity no longer has a new music jones.  Because they’ve been burned too many times, and they can’t make sense of the landscape.

The majors could address this question.  By creating new trustworthy filters, by marketing credible acts.  But they’re not playing to the consumer, they’re playing to WALL STREET!