Who’s going to win the music business war?<\/p>\n
It certainly won’t be Sony, or BMG.\u00c2\u00a0 Sony wants out of the music business.\u00c2\u00a0 As does BMG.\u00c2\u00a0 Unfortunately, no one can meet their price, so they’re holding for now.\u00c2\u00a0 But they want to get out.\u00c2\u00a0 Oh, there’s an expansion into music publishing, but no non-traditional ventures are being contemplated.\u00c2\u00a0 It appears they’re going to run the ship until Clive Davis dies or becomes too frail to work, then they’re going to freak out.\u00c2\u00a0 As for Rick Rubin’s recent deal with Columbia?\u00c2\u00a0 If only you could sell CDs, if only online weren’t about singles.\u00c2\u00a0 If only revenue were growing instead of collapsing.<\/p>\n
Then there’s Universal Music.\u00c2\u00a0 With the biggest market share, operating in a vacuum.\u00c2\u00a0 Doug Morris and Jimmy Iovine wanted to be innovators at the turn of the century, with the Farm Club and PressPlay, but after being burned they’ve changed strategy.\u00c2\u00a0 Now it’s all about the check.\u00c2\u00a0 They’re sitting upon a huge copyright asset, if you want to distribute music in the new world, you’ve got to go through them, and you’ve got to pay for the privilege.\u00c2\u00a0 Planning for the future, insuring their place in the coming landscape?\u00c2\u00a0 Not really an issue.\u00c2\u00a0 Especially since the OWNER of the operation wants out, but like Sony and BMG can’t find anybody to sell to, not at a reasonable price.<\/p>\n
Then comes EMI.\u00c2\u00a0 EMI has Ames, but not much else.\u00c2\u00a0 Roger Ames knows where every dollar in a record deal is buried.\u00c2\u00a0 He’s what Warner needs.\u00c2\u00a0 But EMI does not have the assets of Warner.\u00c2\u00a0 EMI is in survival mode.<\/p>\n
And then there’s Warner.\u00c2\u00a0 Unlike his compatriots owning major labels, Richard Parsons decided to get out, he didn’t want to weather the storm, he wanted his money now, before the asset went down in value even further.\u00c2\u00a0 So, the company was sold to private equity interests.\u00c2\u00a0 Although Warner is embracing digital strategies, there’s no overall music business play.\u00c2\u00a0 Oh, they want to strong-arm their artists into giving them rights, but there’s no desire to truly get into the touring or management businesses.\u00c2\u00a0 Hell, their interest in Azoff’s company was just sold to Barry Diller.<\/p>\n
Irving Azoff.\u00c2\u00a0 Is it now his time?\u00c2\u00a0 Is this his David Geffen moment?\u00c2\u00a0 Now that DreamWorks has failed, now that Geffen is a billionaire without portfolio, is Irving plotting to take over the music business?<\/p>\n
Well we read that Jeff Kwatinetz was taking over the music business.\u00c2\u00a0 But Firm clients come and go, as do their managers, Jeff’s always striking up innovative record deals that generate no heat.\u00c2\u00a0 His moment appears gone.<\/p>\n
And then there are our friends up north, Terry McBride and his Nettwerk crew.\u00c2\u00a0 They’re the ones talking innovation, but that’s all in service to their artists, they’re managers through and through.\u00c2\u00a0 As are their east coast counterparts at Q Prime.\u00c2\u00a0 Cliff and Peter experienced a debacle in venue ownership, they’ve now got Snow Patrol and Jimmy Page, but they’re hands-on managers, they’re not interested in the tectonic plates, tilting the world at large.<\/p>\n
But Michael Rapino is.<\/p>\n
Michael Rapino is younger than most of the household names.\u00c2\u00a0 He hasn’t made his fortune yet.\u00c2\u00a0 This is his time to make a move.\u00c2\u00a0 He’s sold what doesn’t interest him, and bought what does.\u00c2\u00a0 He’s got not only Trunk, but MusicToday.\u00c2\u00a0 And suddenly, he’s in ticketing.<\/p>\n
But isn’t that the domain of TicketMaster?<\/p>\n
The coming music story is how new players akin to Microsoft will enter the sphere and eat up market share.\u00c2\u00a0 Computer-savvy tots with their ears to the ground, who know what the public really wants.\u00c2\u00a0 No deals will be made with majors, if there are record companies at all, you presently don’t know their names.\u00c2\u00a0 But these acts WILL have to play live.\u00c2\u00a0 And who will control that arena?<\/p>\n
Yes, right now we’ve got a giant struggle over the live business.\u00c2\u00a0 Who will be the gatekeeper, who will cash the check.\u00c2\u00a0 The record companies are also-rans.\u00c2\u00a0 And the online distributors?\u00c2\u00a0 With licensing so complicated, on such onerous terms, smart money is staying out, there’s no movement in that world, it’s been ceded to iTunes.<\/p>\n
But in the physical world, we’ve got a jockeying for position heretofore unseen.<\/p>\n
And it all comes down to Irving.<\/p>\n
Is Irving just in it for the check?\u00c2\u00a0 Or does he want the power?<\/p>\n
Who knows.\u00c2\u00a0 But if you want to know what happens in the future, watch him.<\/p>\n
Irving assembled a management powerhouse to neutralize the labels, to prevent them from dictating to him.\u00c2\u00a0 FRONTLINE’S policy would be of equal weight to the label’s policy.<\/p>\n
But you’ve got to look back further.\u00c2\u00a0 To AEG.\u00c2\u00a0 Irving Azoff built AEG.\u00c2\u00a0 By resuscitating ConcertsWest.\u00c2\u00a0 Eventually Irving sold his interest to Anschutz, and Randy Phillips took the day to day reins, but Irving’s got a special place in their board room.\u00c2\u00a0 He’s entitled to favors.\u00c2\u00a0 And he returns favors.\u00c2\u00a0 That Live Nation doesn’t get.<\/p>\n
But Live Nation needs Irving’s acts.\u00c2\u00a0 Irving’s partner Howard Kaufman has kept the sheds alive for years.\u00c2\u00a0 Albeit at high prices, but you’ve got to have SOMEBODY to bring in the customer.<\/p>\n
Can you say Def Leppard\/Journey?\u00c2\u00a0 Can you say Chicago\/Earth, Wind & Fire\/this year’s oldie?\u00c2\u00a0 Can you say Fleetwood Mac?<\/p>\n
Michael Rapino cannot afford to piss off Irving Azoff.\u00c2\u00a0 Now more than ever, Irving’s got the biggest stable of acts, and concert promotion is all about the acts.<\/p>\n
But now Irving has made Rapino’s life even worse.\u00c2\u00a0 He’s gotten in bed with the thorn in Rapino’s side, TicketMaster.<\/p>\n
Oh, there’s been a link forever.\u00c2\u00a0 With the name Larry Solters.\u00c2\u00a0 Yes, Irving’s positively old school, he knows it’s about relationships, and information, and he’s got both.<\/p>\n
So now what?<\/p>\n
Well, IAC\/TicketMaster bought the Thomas H. Lee\/Bain stake.\u00c2\u00a0 But Warner’s still got a piece of Frontline.\u00c2\u00a0 Is this significant?\u00c2\u00a0 Well, maybe to the point that Irving’s got a special relationship with Warner.\u00c2\u00a0 At least until he gets frustrated and makes their life hell.<\/p>\n
But it’s Irving who controls the landscape now.\u00c2\u00a0 Suddenly, Irving’s a linchpin in Warner, Live Nation, IAC\/TicketMaster…\u00c2\u00a0 Suddenly, the brilliant poker player has more cards than anybody.\u00c2\u00a0 How’s he going to play them?\u00c2\u00a0 What does he WANT?<\/p>\n
Warner, Live Nation and TicketMaster are fighting for their lives.\u00c2\u00a0 Good idea to line up with TicketMaster, kind of like Sirius buying Howard Stern.\u00c2\u00a0 If Rapino sells his own tickets, TicketMaster is fucked.\u00c2\u00a0 But if Irving’s in between, does TicketMaster keep its deal?<\/p>\n
And Irving controls the only thing that counts.\u00c2\u00a0 The talent.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s not like movies or TV, you can’t create a new roster out of thin air.<\/p>\n
Maybe Irving just wants a check.\u00c2\u00a0 He’s certainly sold for a price in the past.\u00c2\u00a0 Or maybe he wants to control the business.\u00c2\u00a0 If not in name, then reality.<\/p>\n
One thing is clear.\u00c2\u00a0 The wagons are circling, we’re in the final throes of consolidation.\u00c2\u00a0 Everyone thought it was about the labels, but really it’s about the gig.\u00c2\u00a0 Who controls the gig.\u00c2\u00a0 Right now, Irving Azoff controls the gig.<\/p>\n
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Who’s going to win the music business war? It certainly won’t be Sony, or BMG.\u00c2\u00a0 Sony wants out of the music business.\u00c2\u00a0 As does BMG.\u00c2\u00a0 Unfortunately, no one can meet their price, so they’re holding for now.\u00c2\u00a0 But they want to get out.\u00c2\u00a0 Oh, there’s an expansion into music publishing, but no non-traditional ventures are […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-799","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-music-business"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p96vPs-cT","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/799","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=799"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/799\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=799"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=799"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=799"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}