So can you still get rich playing music?<\/p>\n
In the nineties we had megastars.\u00c2\u00a0 Boy bands that sold diamond, over 10,000,000 copies of their albums.\u00c2\u00a0 They could even sell two million in a week!<\/p>\n
Did online theft kill those sales, or was it choice?<\/p>\n
What does it mean to be a musician?\u00c2\u00a0 Is it the same thing as being a star?<\/p>\n
We certainly learned what it took to become a star.\u00c2\u00a0 You had to be attractive and be willing to do what your handlers told you to.\u00c2\u00a0 And you had to play ball, deliver to MTV and terrestrial radio whatever they wanted.\u00c2\u00a0 If you got lucky, you became not only famous, but rich.<\/p>\n
But anybody can become famous today.\u00c2\u00a0 That’s not that big an achievement.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s staying power that counts.\u00c2\u00a0 And, if you don’t stay, can you make any money?<\/p>\n
Sure, we can round up thousands of wannabes to try out for "American Idol", but do they represent the heart of the music business, are they still what people want, or is the whole game positively old school?\u00c2\u00a0 Thirty million people watch each show and maybe the winner, if lucky, can sell a couple of million records?\u00c2\u00a0 With all that exposure, based on the nineties MTV paradigm, they should be moving TEN MILLION records.\u00c2\u00a0 What happened?\u00c2\u00a0 Did the public steal the music business?<\/p>\n
No, the public tuned out the mainstream.\u00c2\u00a0 The public wants something different.\u00c2\u00a0 And without this concentration of ears and eyeballs on the usual suspects purveyed in the usual way, sales have dropped.\u00c2\u00a0 And they’re NEVER coming back.<\/p>\n
I believe the overall music business pie, the total revenue achieved, can be greater than it’s ever been, if the acquisition of music online is paid for instead of slipping through the fingers of an industry that only wants to sell songs a particular way.\u00c2\u00a0 Shouldn’t be tough to get everybody to be a music customer, if the buy-in price is low enough, if they can sample and acquire a mass for a reasonable fee.\u00c2\u00a0 But is everybody going to buy the same limited amount of product?\u00c2\u00a0 Absolutely not!<\/p>\n
We’re back to the days of musicians.\u00c2\u00a0 Oh sure, there will be a few mostly vapid stars perched atop the economic heap, but very few.\u00c2\u00a0 Most everybody else will have to work hard for their money.<\/p>\n
We’re living in the era of niche.\u00c2\u00a0 Broadcasting is dead.\u00c2\u00a0 Just ask NBC, which reported its worst prime time ratings EVER!\u00c2\u00a0 People can now get what they want, exactly what they want, and they tune out everything else.\u00c2\u00a0 So, if you’re trying to assemble a mass, you’re screwed.\u00c2\u00a0 Hell, just look at the SoundScan numbers.\u00c2\u00a0 What, there’s one platinum release this year (Norah Jones)?<\/p>\n
The major label model is history, except for the few superstars left.\u00c2\u00a0 Everybody else is going to have to slug it out in the trenches.<\/p>\n
Everything the major depends on, the cross-promotions, the marketing, the airplay…almost all of it’s falling on deaf ears.\u00c2\u00a0 And those who’ve sold a record once?\u00c2\u00a0 The only people who might want their future product are diehard fans.\u00c2\u00a0 That’s what Paul McCartney doesn’t understand.\u00c2\u00a0 The failure of his solo albums isn’t a result of a lame label, or a lack of innovative marketing, people just don’t CARE!\u00c2\u00a0 It’s not like he’s going to sell millions at Starbucks.\u00c2\u00a0 Actually, the more he hypes the fewer he’ll probably sell.\u00c2\u00a0 Because scorched earth marketing makes you look desperate, especially if you’ve already had traction.\u00c2\u00a0 Just ask Jay-Z.<\/p>\n
Should Jay-Z make another album?\u00c2\u00a0 Not unless he’s into it for the music.<\/p>\n
Seems like Jay’s last record was a business exercise.\u00c2\u00a0 To clean up in the fourth quarter.\u00c2\u00a0 So he could have bragging rights re dollars, and his label could report good numbers.\u00c2\u00a0 Only problem is that not only do we no longer live in a hip-hop nation, not enough people are paying attention, there’s no MAINSTREAM!<\/p>\n
All the institutions the business depends.\u00c2\u00a0 Gone.\u00c2\u00a0 Tower Records was just the first obvious domino.\u00c2\u00a0 Look at terrestrial radio, the ratings are constantly declining.\u00c2\u00a0 MTV?\u00c2\u00a0 It’s in trouble.\u00c2\u00a0 Both the "New York Times" and "Los Angeles Times" have reported the story.\u00c2\u00a0 And you know you’re in trouble when the mainstream press pillories you.\u00c2\u00a0 MTV’s\u00c2\u00a0 solution?\u00c2\u00a0 Get more in bed with its fans, make them part of the show.\u00c2\u00a0 If you think that’s a successful strategy, you’re just not old enough.\u00c2\u00a0 MTV gave up its core competency, its raison d’etre, MUSIC, for money.\u00c2\u00a0 Yup, music didn’t get good enough ratings, so they went where the bucks were.\u00c2\u00a0 But suddenly, there are not enough bucks in useless youthquake programming.<\/p>\n
Same deal with the major labels.\u00c2\u00a0 It used to be about signing quality MUSICIANS!\u00c2\u00a0 And developing them over a period of years\/albums.\u00c2\u00a0 But if you could gussy up one act, and sell millions of copies of their initial record, WHY WASTE ALL THAT TIME?\u00c2\u00a0 Well, that paradigm worked for a while, but now it’s finished.\u00c2\u00a0 Because the lowest common denominator stuff flogged so hard just doesn’t resonate with the public anymore.<\/p>\n
If you’re in this business to get rich, get out.\u00c2\u00a0 Because the road to riches just got very windy, there are potholes, and unpaved sections, and there’s no map.\u00c2\u00a0 Now you’ve got to play because you love to.\u00c2\u00a0 And hope that you can garner a fanbase, that will deliver enough money so you can survive.<\/p>\n
Oh, some acts will more than survive.\u00c2\u00a0 There will be new Dave Matthews Bands.\u00c2\u00a0 But they’ll be smaller.\u00c2\u00a0 Dave had a loyal college audience, but MTV and VH1 crossed him over to the mainstream.\u00c2\u00a0 You can’t cross over to the mainstream via big time media anymore.\u00c2\u00a0 You can just grow your base.<\/p>\n
You can’t work at the label, they’re firing people, they can’t pay their bills.<\/p>\n
The major management companies?\u00c2\u00a0 Well, the dinosaurs can tour till their dead, but many of them are nearing the statistical age when they will be passing from this earth.\u00c2\u00a0 Developing new acts that will generate millions in commissions?\u00c2\u00a0 Essentially impossible.<\/p>\n
It’s not about saving what we’ve got, it’s about dealing with the new reality.<\/p>\n
People have choice.\u00c2\u00a0 And they’re hard to reach.\u00c2\u00a0 They want something that resonates.\u00c2\u00a0 And what resonates with Peter might be anathema to Paul.\u00c2\u00a0 You’ve got to get the music into people’s hands, oftentimes initially for free.\u00c2\u00a0 You can’t push it, people have to pull it.\u00c2\u00a0 Which means it can’t be sold on mania, but quality.\u00c2\u00a0 And when you get traction, you have to build slowly, you’ve got no choice.\u00c2\u00a0 To try and take a short cut, to sign with a major and be the beneficiary of all their marketing, NO LONGER WORKS!\u00c2\u00a0 The major can’t blow up your indie act, there’s nowhere to do it!<\/p>\n
It’s cottage industry once again.\u00c2\u00a0 The landscape will be populated by those truly into music, not those eager to earn a buck.\u00c2\u00a0 The old institutions will be shadows of their former selves.\u00c2\u00a0 Not only the major labels and management companies, but Live Nation too.\u00c2\u00a0 Live Nation depends on charging a fortune to see stars.\u00c2\u00a0 But what if there ARE NO STARS?<\/p>\n
We’re not building new stars.\u00c2\u00a0 Not of the magnitude of the past forty years.\u00c2\u00a0 We’re building acts, that have to charge reasonable prices, that have to be in bed with their fans, have to treat their constituency with TLC JUST TO SURVIVE!\u00c2\u00a0 And the acts come first.\u00c2\u00a0 Without acts, you’ve got no labels, managers starve, and Live Nation’s stock plummets.<\/p>\n
You might call it a crisis.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s just reality.<\/p>\n
Music will survive.\u00c2\u00a0 It will be healthier than it’s been in a long time.\u00c2\u00a0 But scanning the landscape will be like flipping through the three hundred channels on your cable system.\u00c2\u00a0 You’ll recognize three or four things, but most of the rest will be foreign to you and you won’t be interested.\u00c2\u00a0 But it will be WORSE, because technology limits the number of channels on a cable system, whereas ANYBODY can make music and put it up on MySpace.<\/p>\n
There are opportunities galore.\u00c2\u00a0 But to get rich quick?\u00c2\u00a0 No, that game is HISTORY!<\/p>\n
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