{"id":639,"date":"2007-01-01T19:12:58","date_gmt":"2007-01-02T03:12:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/archives\/2007\/01\/01\/2007-predictions\/"},"modified":"2007-01-01T19:12:58","modified_gmt":"2007-01-02T03:12:58","slug":"2007-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/2007\/01\/01\/2007-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"2007 Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"

1. CD sales will continue to tank<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sometime in the next twelve to eighteen months CD sales are going to decline so precipitously as to cause the major labels to rethink their digital strategy.\u00c2\u00a0 With the iTunes Store no replacement for discs, they’ll be forced to authorize a new method of distribution, just to maintain their bottom lines.<\/p>\n

You’ve seen this movie.\u00c2\u00a0 With film.\u00c2\u00a0 For fifteen years seers predicted digital would eclipse the old format.\u00c2\u00a0 This finally happened a year ago, when Konica Minolta exited the camera business and Nikon essentially stopped making film cameras.\u00c2\u00a0 Same thing is going to happen in the music business, with CDs, it’s just a matter of when.\u00c2\u00a0 The most interesting point is how the usage of music will change.\u00c2\u00a0 People shoot MANY MORE digital photos than they ever did film ones.\u00c2\u00a0 People will own MUCH more music than they did in the physical era.\u00c2\u00a0 This is good.<\/p>\n

2. Rhapsody will still have no traction<\/strong><\/p>\n

When people tell you subscription is the future, they’re right.\u00c2\u00a0 But it’s not rental.\u00c2\u00a0 Not for a long long time.\u00c2\u00a0 Yes, eventually people will have no need to own the product, but that’s closer to ten years out than five, and I’d say more like fifteen.\u00c2\u00a0 Call it human nature, people want to OWN things, call them their own, have them forever.<\/p>\n

Rhapsody IS an excellent service, it’s just that Real doesn’t have enough cash to market it properly.\u00c2\u00a0 Most people have no idea how it works.\u00c2\u00a0 If they did, it would make inroads.\u00c2\u00a0 As for Napster…give me a break.\u00c2\u00a0 Maybe they can sell the name to the new legalized P2P service!<\/p>\n

3. Snocap\/MySpace<\/strong><\/p>\n

Irrelevant.\u00c2\u00a0 Most people don’t want to pay for this crap, and those that do don’t want to pay this MUCH!<\/p>\n

4. EMI<\/strong><\/p>\n

Heading for disaster.\u00c2\u00a0 Either this fiscal year, or next, the financials are going to tank, and then so will the stock.<\/p>\n

Gross mismanagement by those in power.\u00c2\u00a0 Anybody with private equity money and a brain would snatch this company up in a minute.\u00c2\u00a0 Because in the future, the catalog alone will be worth MANY billions.\u00c2\u00a0 Because believe me, people will pay for music in the future, we’re in a temporary lull, where those in the know don’t know how to leverage their assets.<\/p>\n

5. Apple<\/strong><\/p>\n

Any other CEO would be fired.\u00c2\u00a0 But canning Steve Jobs would be like firing Tiger Woods from his enterprise.\u00c2\u00a0 Steve Jobs IS Apple Computer.<\/p>\n

Apple will introduce sliver-like notebooks that you’ll be dying to own.\u00c2\u00a0 They’ll probably introduce a phone in the next ninety days.\u00c2\u00a0 They’ll continue to have a stranglehold on per track downloads and hand-held music players.\u00c2\u00a0 BUY STOCK!<\/p>\n

6. Rob Stringer<\/strong><\/p>\n

Will not have long enough before the business implodes to save Sony.\u00c2\u00a0 Looks like BMG is gonna rule this empire in the future.<\/p>\n

7. Bono<\/strong><\/p>\n

Will continue to wear those phony sunglasses and try to save the world, sliding into irrelevance all the while.\u00c2\u00a0 This is a band that needs experimental music released sequentially to regain its cred.\u00c2\u00a0 But they’re too busy satiating their fortysomething audience, giving them exactly what they want, to matter.\u00c2\u00a0 It would be like the Beatles releasing "Beatles For Sale" over and over and over again.\u00c2\u00a0 How about another "Achtung Baby", babies?<\/p>\n

8. Live Nation<\/strong><\/p>\n

Don’t focus on the acts, the ticket counts, the grosses, this is a WALL STREET PLAY!\u00c2\u00a0 Michael Rapino has convinced the money men that he has a way of maximizing revenue.\u00c2\u00a0 We don’t believe it, we don’t see superstar acts in the pipeline.\u00c2\u00a0 Then again, if he knocks down TicketMaster fees, and continues to tape and broadcast shows, and sells chazerai to ticket buyers, just maybe he can make the numbers work.<\/p>\n

9. XM and Sirius<\/strong><\/p>\n

A merger would be terrible.\u00c2\u00a0 For you’ve got two completely different cultures and Mel Karmazin would be in control when the deal was done, and all Mel knows is advertising, and that’s the one ace in the hole satellite has, its LACK of advertising.<\/p>\n

XM was caught with its pants down by Scott Greenstein and Mel’s star strategy.\u00c2\u00a0 Actually, the worst mistake the Washington, D.C. company ever made was NOT doing a deal with Howard Stern, that would have killed Sirius once and for all and XM would have emerged triumphant.\u00c2\u00a0 Instead, XM has now overspent trying to compete with Sirius and its financials suck and there is PRESSURE to merge with Sirius.<\/p>\n

Sirius has got the image and the mo.<\/p>\n

XM has the better service, both musically and technologically.<\/p>\n

The way this fucked up world works expect the two companies to get together and for the resulting company to be like Sirius.\u00c2\u00a0 And, to paraphrase John Lennon, then the dream would be over.<\/p>\n

Two different cultures.\u00c2\u00a0 Two different incompatible technologies.\u00c2\u00a0 Does this sound like fertile ground for getting together?\u00c2\u00a0 But don’t ever forget, Wall Street is in control here, and what the Street wants will happen.\u00c2\u00a0 And just like with Live Nation, the Street is ignorant.<\/p>\n

XM should stay the course.\u00c2\u00a0 Improve its image.\u00c2\u00a0 Play the underdog, even though it still leads in subs.\u00c2\u00a0 I believe it can emerge triumphant.\u00c2\u00a0 As for Sirius…\u00c2\u00a0 I don’t know one person who doesn’t complain of dropouts, no matter WHAT they’re airing.<\/p>\n

10. Zune<\/strong><\/p>\n

Already dead.<\/p>\n

Play by the rules, and you’re history.<\/p>\n

Squirt a track to another, if you can FIND another person with a Zune, and it expires in three days, to satiate the RIAA.\u00c2\u00a0 What if you’re squirting a college lecture?\u00c2\u00a0 What if you’re squirting the track of an unsigned band?\u00c2\u00a0 REMEMBER, if you play by the RIAA rules, you’re DOOMED to failure.<\/p>\n

Zune will limp along.\u00c2\u00a0 Then again, Dell killed its DJ.<\/p>\n

11. Dell<\/strong><\/p>\n

Will never recover from its bad press.<\/p>\n

If your customer service sucks, if your PRODUCT sucks, it’s only a matter of time before someone will establish a Website revealing this fact and your image will be trashed, probably PERMANENTLY!\u00c2\u00a0 The old paradigm of selling crap via marketing is DEAD!<\/p>\n

As for Dell, it is being killed by the commoditization of the PC business.\u00c2\u00a0 People would rather just go down to Staples and buy an HP off the shelf, having it IMMEDIATELY!\u00c2\u00a0 Dell will continue to own the corporate sphere, but the company has hit a wall.\u00c2\u00a0 DON’T BUY THIS STOCK!<\/p>\n

12. "American Idol"<\/strong><\/p>\n

Will continue to have solid ratings, which will decline a bit with every season, just like "Survivor".\u00c2\u00a0 Fox will make a fortune.\u00c2\u00a0 But the records of these acts…will not rule the sales chart in the future.<\/p>\n

13. What WILL sell<\/strong><\/p>\n

It’s 1967.\u00c2\u00a0 Just before underground FM radio started to gain traction.\u00c2\u00a0 By 1970 nobody hip was listening to AM.\u00c2\u00a0 And by ’73, AOR ruled.<\/p>\n

In other words, that SoundScan chart with the albums of acts with hits on the Top Forty???\u00c2\u00a0 It’s gonna look completely different in the future.\u00c2\u00a0 That paradigm won’t die, but it will diminish in domination.\u00c2\u00a0 It will be about the outside, the cult, the LESS THAN HYPED!\u00c2\u00a0 Invest in your future by finding an act that can write and play, and then develop it SLOWLY!\u00c2\u00a0 Say no more than yes.\u00c2\u00a0 It’ll help your cred.\u00c2\u00a0 And if you don’t think it’s about cred, you probably haven’t seen the photos of Britney Spears’ pudenda.<\/p>\n

14. Soundtrack albums<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dead.<\/p>\n

Oh, now and again one will sell a million.\u00c2\u00a0 But if you’re a label, offer almost NOTHING as an advance.\u00c2\u00a0 The movies suck, why should someone want a shitty souvenir?\u00c2\u00a0 Movies ruled in the nineties and the early part of this century, now they’re a joke.\u00c2\u00a0 If you’re building a soundtrack with a music supervisor looking to have the new "Footloose", I’m laughing.<\/p>\n

15. MTV<\/strong><\/p>\n

Will be less and less about music.\u00c2\u00a0 The old days are NEVER coming back.\u00c2\u00a0 And Fuse doesn’t matter.\u00c2\u00a0 Video’s on the Web now baby.<\/p>\n

16. YouTube<\/strong><\/p>\n

What Napster was, before you had a high speed connection and knew the JOYS of excavating rare tracks by your favorite bands.<\/p>\n

If YouTube can be legalized, then so can music P2P.<\/p>\n

17. "Billboard"<\/strong><\/p>\n

Will get thinner and thinner.\u00c2\u00a0 Everything in the magazine worth knowing can be distributed on the Web, there’s no reason for this magazine to exist.\u00c2\u00a0 Expect more conferences as they try to keep the company afloat.\u00c2\u00a0 Eventually it will just be a Website, but not soon ENOUGH!<\/p>\n

18. Managers<\/strong><\/p>\n

More important than they’ve been in fifteen years.<\/p>\n

Yes, for the last decade and a half the LABEL was oftentimes the manager.\u00c2\u00a0 DICTATING the selling of the act.\u00c2\u00a0 But now almost nobody’s WORKING at the label.\u00c2\u00a0 The superstar managers are not interested in developing acts, there’s almost no MONEY in it.\u00c2\u00a0 They’d rather service the superstars and cherry-pick those newbies that break through.\u00c2\u00a0 The landscape is ripe for a young ‘un to develop new acts and own them.\u00c2\u00a0 Yes, a new Irving Azoff is in the offing.<\/p>\n

19. David Geffen<\/strong><\/p>\n

Done.<\/p>\n

20. Dr. Dre<\/strong><\/p>\n

Just as powerful as ever.<\/p>\n

But hip-hop is not.<\/p>\n

Hip-hop will never go away, but it has peaked.<\/p>\n

21. Pitchforkmedia.com<\/strong><\/p>\n

Won’t become any more powerful, but some company doing a similar thing, much more trustworthy because of a more singular\/policed voice, will emerge and be the bible.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s all about filters.\u00c2\u00a0 They’re coming.\u00c2\u00a0 Maybe not this year, but soon.<\/p>\n

22. Rolling Stone<\/strong><\/p>\n

Irrelevant.<\/p>\n

23. Celebrity news<\/strong><\/p>\n

If your act is a celebrity, you’re fucked.\u00c2\u00a0 Because celebrities are to be made fun of, they’re entertaining for BEING celebrities, not for anything they’ve done.\u00c2\u00a0 Just check out perezhilton.com or egotastic.com if you doubt me.\u00c2\u00a0 You don’t see Jim James or Sufjan Stevens on either of those sites, and that’s just the point.<\/p>\n

24. Social networking sites<\/strong><\/p>\n

Just the latest manifestation of the AOL chatting phenomenon of ten years ago.<\/p>\n

People are isolated, and lonely.\u00c2\u00a0 They want to connect.\u00c2\u00a0 The Net is a tool for this.\u00c2\u00a0 But it’s only a tool.\u00c2\u00a0 Most of the connecting is done amongst those you already know.\u00c2\u00a0 Therefore, it’s important to be a member of a group.\u00c2\u00a0 To get e-mailed tracks, forwarded news, to be kept in the loop.\u00c2\u00a0 If your group is made up of people you’ve never met who you talk to online, you’re a loser.<\/p>\n

25. SXSW<\/strong><\/p>\n

Will continue to be the preeminent circle jerk, promoted by established players and the mainstream media as important even though those truly in touch know that by time it reaches Austin all those with a clue ALREADY KNOW!<\/p>\n

26. English music<\/strong><\/p>\n

Still won’t break through, even though much of it is better than American pap.<\/p>\n

It’s a cultural thing.\u00c2\u00a0 In the U.K. there are numerous outlets, and people follow the acts like sports teams.\u00c2\u00a0 Here there’s just Top Forty, and we don’t want any fops.\u00c2\u00a0 In other words, there’s no ROOM for English acts on today’s mainstream radio formats, and therefore they can gain no traction.\u00c2\u00a0 Will someone with dedication try to break great English acts from the ground up, via hard work?\u00c2\u00a0 I don’t know, but that’s the only way to do it.<\/p>\n

27. The blues<\/strong><\/p>\n

Blues rock is coming back.\u00c2\u00a0 Maybe not this year, but within three.\u00c2\u00a0 After all, all those kids listening to Zeppelin, they want something NEW to hang their knit caps on.\u00c2\u00a0 And those acts you hate, Nickelback and Hinder, they’re closer to what’s coming than Justin Timberlake.<\/p>\n

28. The Grammys<\/strong><\/p>\n

Will continue to mean less and less.<\/p>\n

29. Jimmy Iovine<\/strong><\/p>\n

The days of record execs as stars peaked with Christopher Moltisanti noticing Tommy Mottola outside a New York club in "The Sopranos".\u00c2\u00a0 Even if he was hot, nobody would care about Jimmy Iovine anymore.<\/p>\n

Once again, all the recognition you can get as an exec is from your peers.<\/p>\n

30. Coachella and Bonnaroo<\/strong><\/p>\n

Scenes, not the mainstream.<\/p>\n

If you think either of these clusterfucks is the future, you’re sadly mistaken.<\/p>\n

We’re not in the age of Aquarius, but cacophony.\u00c2\u00a0 There WILL be a new mainstream, we just don’t know what it is right now.\u00c2\u00a0 AND, it will not be as dominant as the OLD mainstream.\u00c2\u00a0 And astride the mainstream will be a bunch of narrowcasted worlds.\u00c2\u00a0 Where Coachella and Bonnaroo reside.<\/p>\n

But no one will tell you the foregoing, because those PROMOTING Coachella and Bonnaroo need to be big swinging dicks, need to be dominant.\u00c2\u00a0 This constant braggadocio will be undercut by the we’re all in it together ethic of the younger generation.\u00c2\u00a0 You’ll know progress has been made when the youth squeeze out the old farts at the top, holding back the future, not only in the recorded music sphere, but the live music arena as well.\u00c2\u00a0 The old rules don’t fit the new world.\u00c2\u00a0 A kid has an MP3 player, and WANTS MP3s, not copy protected tracks, which he gets from his buddies.\u00c2\u00a0 This same kid doesn’t understand the TicketMaster fee and the facility fee and all the other bullshit of the live experience, and until ALL of these are gone, we can make no progress.<\/p>\n

31. Respect<\/strong><\/p>\n

The key to the future.<\/p>\n

And we haven’t had that spirit since 1969.<\/p>\n

It’s a more close-knit society.\u00c2\u00a0 Everybody’s equal on the Web.\u00c2\u00a0 If you’re not concerned with the experience of your customers, you’re doomed to death.\u00c2\u00a0 Give people something that touches their souls for a fair price and they’ll give you ALL their money.\u00c2\u00a0 Rip them off with shit and they’ll tell everybody they know and decimate your enterprise.<\/p>\n

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1. CD sales will continue to tank Sometime in the next twelve to eighteen months CD sales are going to decline so precipitously as to cause the major labels to rethink their digital strategy.\u00c2\u00a0 With the iTunes Store no replacement for discs, they’ll be forced to authorize a new method of distribution, just to maintain […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-639","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-music-business"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p96vPs-aj","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/639","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=639"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/639\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=639"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=639"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=639"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}