{"id":4983,"date":"2012-02-02T07:47:43","date_gmt":"2012-02-02T15:47:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/?p=4983"},"modified":"2012-02-02T07:47:43","modified_gmt":"2012-02-02T15:47:43","slug":"tech-top-ten","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/2012\/02\/02\/tech-top-ten\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Top Ten"},"content":{"rendered":"

1. Apple<\/span><\/p>\n

iPhone 4S is a smash, holding back the Android tide, but as great as the numbers are, you miss Steve. Individuals matter. It was hard to get excited about their education presentation and it’s hard to be optimistic about the future. One man can make all the difference.<\/p>\n

But they could maintain their momentum, they could continue to matter, but I wouldn’t bet on it. No one replaced John Lennon after he was shot and even though the Beatles had already broken up, once Ronnie Van Zant was gone, Skynyrd was never the same.<\/p>\n

As for the Kindle Fire, ignore it. A flawed device that in no way impinges on the iPad. Expect more for less as the iPad matures, as was done with the iPod. The iPod dominated for its entire useful run (now over as a result of the iPhone), right now the iPhone and iPad don’t dominate. They’re very profitable, but they don’t own the sphere. They could, but it’s all about pricing.<\/p>\n

2. Google<\/span><\/p>\n

Owns search the way Apple owned the portable music player sphere with the iPod. The only way to beat Google is to wait for conventional search to fade, that’s how Microsoft got beaten, not by a better OS or better productivity apps, but by new Internet offerings, from Google to Facebook to handsets.<\/p>\n

Search throws off so much cash that Google can lumber into other spheres and wreak havoc. Android is riddled with security issues, but the fact that it’s free allows for inroads.<\/p>\n

Don’t compete with Google on search. Microsoft did this with Bing and lost billions. Google is good enough. Until the next product comes along.<\/p>\n

3. Amazon<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite the negative statements above re the Kindle Fire, Bezos knows that you invest or die. If you play to Wall Street, you’re already history. Ignore yesterday’s reaction to the numbers, Amazon is only gaining in dominance. They’ve got the secret weapon of Amazon Prime and authors are wondering why they’re giving up the lion’s share of their revenue to publishers and are making deals directly with Amazon. Amazon may not have the cachet of Apple, but it’s incredibly disruptive, just check out its cloud offerings, which aren’t sexy but power so many websites. As for the coming need to pay tax…I’d rather buy from Amazon anyway. The product comes right to your door and the customer service is great. They lean over backwards re returns whereas brick and mortar makes you feel guilty for bringing something back.<\/p>\n

4. Facebook<\/span><\/p>\n

It’s all about convincing other companies to sell on Facebook. People hate advertising, so initiatives there are flawed. Furthermore, the social graph is overrated, people will burn out on knowing everything about everybody. But if it’s where you go to get the information you used to get on Google and it’s easy to buy there too, Facebook has a way out.<\/p>\n


5. YouTube<\/span><\/p>\n

Yes, it’s part of Google, but it deserves its own ranking because of its move into channels. The problem with conventional media companies is they don’t want online access, or, if they do, they want it windowed after other more profitable exploitation schemes. But this isn’t a problem if you’re producing on YouTube, you’re already in the online game. This is a very long term play, but it just might win.<\/p>\n

Read this "New Yorker" article to open your eyes: <\/p>\n

\n
Streaming Dreams<\/a><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n

6. "New York Times"<\/span><\/p>\n

In a world of cutbacks, almost no one does any reporting, that is the NYT’s backbone. NYT could own news online if it were only more aggressive. Fox might be a news channel, but there’s very little reporting. As for local news…forget about it.<\/p>\n

Whether it be video or text, right wing or left, we have a lot of bloviators and very few organizations with feet on the ground.<\/p>\n

If the NYT could reimagine itself, stop being a newspaper and start being a news outlet, stop worrying about people stealing content and start making deals to power the news on all websites, the way Google made inroads in search, it could dominate and end up being investigated for antitrust.<\/p>\n

But no one there is thinking that big.<\/p>\n

It’s what you don’t know, what you don’t see that kills you.<\/p>\n

7. Ticketmaster<\/span><\/p>\n

It’s one of the foremost e-commerce sites, traffic is incredible.<\/p>\n

But Ticketmaster missed out on the Amazon lesson, it’s thinking too small.<\/p>\n

Remember when Amazon just sold books?<\/p>\n

With this amount of traffic, Ticketmaster should expand into selling items beyond tickets and dispensing all kinds of information.<\/p>\n

You can’t think small when you’re an e-commerce company.<\/p>\n

Ticketmaster has to own the ticketing sphere and build upon it.<\/p>\n

8. Samsung<\/span><\/p>\n

Has no web presence, but rules in television and is neck and neck with Apple in phone production and is even challenging in the tablet sphere. Could it be that fast broadband and government support helped Samsung grow whereas in America the government tries to hold development back?<\/p>\n

9. Craigslist<\/span><\/p>\n

It’s not sexy, it gets very little press, but it killed newspaper classified advertising and it owns its sphere. If it were a public company grazing for profits you’d read about it in the news every day. Is Craig Newmark one of a kind? Someone who’s about the service as opposed to the money?<\/p>\n

Let’s hope not.<\/p>\n


10. Verizon<\/span><\/p>\n

He who controls distribution wins. FiOS may be built out, but now the company is offering bundles with cable companies. It’s eating AT&T’s lunch. The real play is in wireless. Verizon’s got the cash and it’s spending it. It owns plenty of spectrum too. Verizon may be too big for its britches, but if you’re in the U.S. and you’re on a competing network, you’re ignorant. Verizon is so far ahead in LTE it’s a joke. You want fast access everywhere. Verizon delivers this best.<\/p>\n

Once again, it’s all about investment. Verizon spent billions, the record labels cut back. If you’re not willing to spend, if you’re not willing to risk the wrath of Wall Street, you’re going to have a very brief run.<\/p>\n

In today’s marketplace it’s about owning the sphere. You’ve got to spend to achieve this.<\/p>\n

TOAST<\/span><\/p>\n

Yahoo:<\/span> There is no comeback. It farmed out search, without e-mail, it would collapse. And Gmail is so much better than Yahoo mail, never mind AOL mail, because Google keeps investing, Yahoo is pulling back. As for the content…is there anything on Yahoo that’s must see?<\/p>\n

RIM:<\/span> There is no comeback. Sell now, forget about it. You’ll see people using BlackBerries in the future the day everybody buys a cassette Walkman.<\/p>\n

Sony:<\/span> Is it a content company or a media company or neither?<\/p>\n

Neither. Samsung owns TV. Movie studios are all about glamor and little profit and we all know the value of record companies… Furthermore, games are moving online, Nintendo took a hit and Sony is next.<\/p>\n

Microsoft:<\/span> It’s a long slow death. Windows doesn’t die overnight, but there’s no growth on the horizon. It was always a not invented here corporation, and without a visionary, in today’s world, you’re history.<\/p>\n

Groupon\/Living Social:<\/span> It’s all bad once the heat wears off. Merchants get ripped off and users are schnorrers who don’t come back and there’s a whole segment of people embarrassed to use coupons. A fad.<\/p>\n

Best Buy:<\/span> I could beat up on them, but everyone else already has. Why waste the time to overpay at a place where the help is ignorant? Their share is being eaten by Amazon and there’s no new product on the horizon that will save them.<\/p>\n

MySpace:<\/span> Never coming back. Do you believe Plaxo can have a renaissance?<\/p>\n

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