The Long Tail was a myth.<\/p>\n
In a world where everything is available, people will gravitate to the top, the superstar, the one and only.<\/p>\n
It can be Google or Tiger Woods or U2.\u00c2\u00a0 Most people only have time for that which is universal, anointed by the media and their circle of friends.<\/p>\n
This is not to deny that there’s a market for niches.\u00c2\u00a0 But when it comes to concert tours, expect the rich to get richer.\u00c2\u00a0 And the poor to remain poor.<\/p>\n
A concert is an expensive proposition.\u00c2\u00a0 Even almost down to the developing acts.\u00c2\u00a0 Assuming you buy your ticket in advance, as opposed to paying ten or fifteen or even twenty bucks at the door of a club, you’re going to pay associated ticketing fees (i.e. Ticketmaster), you’re going to pay to park, you’re going to pay for merch and refreshments.\u00c2\u00a0 Is it worth it?<\/p>\n
Sure, there are some new acts who generate heat and explode.\u00c2\u00a0 But Lady GaGa had numerous hits and a whole persona.\u00c2\u00a0 Which translated into big business this year.\u00c2\u00a0 But without more hits, her business will fall off.\u00c2\u00a0 In order to get most people to pay, you’ve got to have a catalog, and you have to be willing to play it.<\/p>\n
That’s what works for U2, the Eagles, the Rolling Stones and Bon Jovi.\u00c2\u00a0 They play for a long time and they play the hits.\u00c2\u00a0 We can debate the exact pricing of their tickets, but generally speaking, demand remains strong.\u00c2\u00a0 There’s a sweet spot at which people will pay to go in great numbers. Whereas for the new and developing act you can give the tickets away and most people still won’t show.<\/p>\n
We live in an era of winners and losers.<\/p>\n
And it’s harder than ever to become a winner.<\/p>\n
Used to be that radio spread the word and anointed stars.\u00c2\u00a0 But radio’s power paled in comparison to MTV.\u00c2\u00a0 If you snuck under the wire, if you made it before MTV stopped playing music, chances are you’re doing strong business today.\u00c2\u00a0 If not?\u00c2\u00a0 You’re facing an uphill battle.\u00c2\u00a0 In other words, Dave Matthews Band got all that MTV\/VH1 airplay, cementing them as stars.\u00c2\u00a0 One can argue that Coldplay was the last band to sneak in under the wire. After that?\u00c2\u00a0 If you’re playing rock music, if you’re playing anything but beat-infused tunes, you’re in trouble.\u00c2\u00a0 And if you’re playing beat-infused tunes and can get on the radio, chances are you can’t sell many concert tickets, because radio means less than ever before.<\/p>\n
And the struggle is so hard, and the rewards so few, that the best and the brightest don’t play music.\u00c2\u00a0 They just don’t get it.\u00c2\u00a0 I’m supposed to give away my music for free, beg people to come to see me and chances are I’ll still starve?<\/p>\n
Yes.<\/p>\n
I’d like to tell you it’s different, but it’s not.<\/p>\n
First, how do you get people to pay attention?\u00c2\u00a0 Time is at a premium for all.\u00c2\u00a0 Getting someone to listen to your track is nigh near impossible.\u00c2\u00a0 Getting them to come to the show if they’re not related or your best friend usually is impossible.\u00c2\u00a0 And isn’t it fascinating that the most burgeoning element of the concert business is deejays\/electronic music, where the focus is less on what comes out of the speakers than being there.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s about the social experience.\u00c2\u00a0 Hanging with your friends.\u00c2\u00a0 Meeting more people.\u00c2\u00a0 Doing via flesh and blood what you cannot do online.<\/p>\n
Going to a traditional concert is about sitting or standing and watching the performer.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s more of a singular than a group activity.\u00c2\u00a0 And it’s harder than ever to get people to leave their home if they don’t feel the activity is anointed by a group.<\/p>\n
That doesn’t mean a new band can’t have fans.\u00c2\u00a0 But what it does mean is the odds that said band will grow into superstars are very low.\u00c2\u00a0 Because it’s harder than ever to be anointed by the masses.<\/p>\n
You go to a Bon Jovi show and they don’t make you listen to new material, not much of it anyway, you pay your money, Jon will sing all the big hits from "Slippery When Wet" and you can go home and tell your buds that you went and had a good time and they’ll know what you’re talking about. Tell them you went to see a new and developing act and they’ll say HUH?<\/p>\n
Maroon 5 can be the biggest act in the land one year and have to deeply discount tickets shortly thereafter.\u00c2\u00a0 Because they’re about the songs.\u00c2\u00a0 The superstars are about a musical culture.\u00c2\u00a0 A tribe.\u00c2\u00a0 You don’t automatically graduate up the ladder like you used to.\u00c2\u00a0 You can stall out, you can fall back down.<\/p>\n
If it sounds like America, you’re right.\u00c2\u00a0 We’ve got winners and losers.\u00c2\u00a0 Bankers and wannabes.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s just that our opinion of the music landscape is clouded by the fact that there’s no entry fee to play music.\u00c2\u00a0 Want to work on Wall Street?\u00c2\u00a0 Go to a prestigious university, get an MBA…how many people can do that?<\/p>\n
So look yourself in the mirror.\u00c2\u00a0 If you want to get rich, pay your academic dues and go into finance, that’s what one-third of 2009 Princeton graduates did.<\/p>\n
Or start a Website.<\/p>\n
Then again, the odds are longer in that sphere than ever before.\u00c2\u00a0 For every Facebook, there’s a zillion sites you’ve never heard of.<\/p>\n
In other words, what your parents said was true.\u00c2\u00a0 If you want to live comfortably, go to graduate school, become a professional.\u00c2\u00a0 If you want to make it in music, there’s a good chance that you’ll work your whole life and still be broke.<\/p>\n
Unless you’re the most talented person in the world.\u00c2\u00a0 We’ve always got room for another Tiger Woods or Elton John or…<\/p>\n
But chances are, you’re not.<\/p>\n
And Tiger Woods started playing golf not long after he was born.<\/p>\n
And Elton John tried to make it as a songwriter, he cut demos for other artists, his solo breakthrough was almost a quirk of fate.<\/p>\n
There will be new superstars.<\/p>\n
But there’s going to be a huge gap between them and everybody else.<\/p>\n
I’ll make it simple.\u00c2\u00a0 Talk to any concert promoter.\u00c2\u00a0 They just can’t sell the tickets in the middle.\u00c2\u00a0 They can sell the expensive seats to the diehard fans and the rich, and the cheap seats to the poor, but the middle?<\/p>\n
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