The live business is imploding.<\/p>\n
Common wisdom is it has to do with price, but it appears that the cancer of
the major labels is starting to impact gigs.\u00c2\u00a0 You see, nobody wants to see the
ACTS!<\/p>\n
But it’s more than that.\u00c2\u00a0 The heritage acts, the ones that have supported the
business for years, nobody wants to see them either.<\/p>\n
Make no mistake, people want to see Celine Dion, the Eagles, and even Kenny
Chesney, at almost ANY PRICE!\u00c2\u00a0 And Green Day might not be charging much, but
they could and still sell out.\u00c2\u00a0 But when you dig deeper…<\/p>\n
Let’s start with the Zooma Tour.\u00c2\u00a0 My initial reaction was it was cancelled
due to Trey Anastasio’s overinflated sense of self, thinking that he meant as
much solo as he did with Phish.\u00c2\u00a0 And I do believe that’s an element, that people
were buying culture along with Phish’s music and there’s no culture with
Trey.\u00c2\u00a0 But then I checked the grosses.\u00c2\u00a0 In theatres, LARGE theatres, Trey sells
out.\u00c2\u00a0 The Fox in Atlanta, the Auditorium in Chicago…\u00c2\u00a0 Could it be less of a
factor of not enough fans and more of an issue of Trey’s fans NO LONGER WANT TO
GO TO THE BIG SHOW AND SIT MILES FROM THE STAGE??<\/p>\n
Yes, hate to break it to you, but Phish fans are in the neighborhood of
thirty now.\u00c2\u00a0 And when you hit that age you start to have money.\u00c2\u00a0 And you no longer
want to rough it, no longer want to commune with your buds.\u00c2\u00a0 Rather, you’d
prefer to drive your near-luxury automobile and pay a bit extra for convenience.<\/p>\n
But it gets worse.\u00c2\u00a0 Who ARE the acts these thirtysomethings want to see in
mass quantities??\u00c2\u00a0 Who ARE the acts that have been working for ten years that
hit this demographic that can draw like the baby boomer superstars and the
fortysomething U2?\u00c2\u00a0 Shit, I’m scratching my head, I can’t think of ANY!<\/p>\n
Then let’s get to the new acts.\u00c2\u00a0 That tour with the rappers?\u00c2\u00a0 The one with
SNOOP DOGG!\u00c2\u00a0 The teflon-coated, always in the press superstar?\u00c2\u00a0 Rappers don’t do
well in concert.\u00c2\u00a0 This show ain’t no guaranteed sell-out, FAR FROM IT!<\/p>\n
But it’s not only rappers…\u00c2\u00a0 Look at Maroon 5.\u00c2\u00a0 Clive’s darlings have sold
out a number of 10,000 seat arenas.\u00c2\u00a0 But they only did 75% business in St.
Louis.\u00c2\u00a0 Maybe an anomaly, but the real question is, WILL ANYBODY WANT TO SEE THEM FIVE YEARS FROM NOW??<\/p>\n
Then there’s the other end of the spectrum.\u00c2\u00a0 The tour with Joe Jackson and
Todd Rundgren.\u00c2\u00a0 I just heard Joe on XM last night.\u00c2\u00a0 A true talent.\u00c2\u00a0 I used to
see him ALL THE TIME in the seventies and eighties.\u00c2\u00a0 Todd…he’s God in my book.
\u00c2\u00a0But not in too many other people’s books.\u00c2\u00a0 Oh, the show sold out in New York
City.\u00c2\u00a0 But is doing half capacity, barely over 1,000 people elsewhere.\u00c2\u00a0
Bottom line?\u00c2\u00a0 The baby boomers are done.\u00c2\u00a0 That’s it.\u00c2\u00a0 Kaput.\u00c2\u00a0 They’ve become their
parents.\u00c2\u00a0 There IS a hard core who will support the old acts, who will come
out, who are fans.\u00c2\u00a0 But the majority of baby boomers see live music as
spectacle, they only want to go to the big shows, the ones that cost over a hundred dollars a ticket.\u00c2\u00a0 Otherwise, they’d rather stay home and watch a DVD.\u00c2\u00a0 Or go out
to dinner and purchase a hundred dollar bottle of wine.\u00c2\u00a0 That’s right, the
demo is OVER!<\/p>\n
At least the baby boomers lived through the heyday.\u00c2\u00a0 When music drove the
culture.\u00c2\u00a0 The generation after them lived through the advent of MTV, but if
Culture Club reformed and went on tour today, how many fortysomethings would CARE??\u00c2\u00a0Yup, as this generation, the true Generation X, ages, THEY’RE only gonna
want to see the big acts, and WHO ARE THEY?<\/p>\n
The younger generation…\u00c2\u00a0 They think that music is something you dance to,
in a club.\u00c2\u00a0 Just watch MTV for instruction, that’s the key activity on all the
reality shows, dancing and drinking and flirting.\u00c2\u00a0 Music is NOT a key element.
\u00c2\u00a0It’s just the grease, at most.<\/p>\n
You can’t steal a live performance, you can’t download it off the net.\u00c2\u00a0 And
no matter how fine you make the theatres, it all comes down to the acts.\u00c2\u00a0 And
major labels haven’t been making acts you want to see, want to BELIEVE IN, for
a LONG TIME!\u00c2\u00a0 The Good Charlotte and Simple Plan tour can’t sell out six
thousand seaters.\u00c2\u00a0 Hell, in some places it can’t sell out THREE THOUSAND SEATERS!\u00c2\u00a0
And the vaunted radio shows, the ones stacked with "stars", the shows everybody thought were cannibalizing their business, people aren’t clamoring to go to
those EITHER!\u00c2\u00a0 Gwen Stefani, Kelly Clarkson, Ryan Cabrera, all the fresh faces
the media tells us RULE culture…it’s just a hype, they, along with the
aforementioned Simple Plan and others, could only pull 10,000 people, fifty
percent capacity, at the 93.3 show at Coors Amphitheatre in Chula Vista.\u00c2\u00a0 Yup, hate
to tell you, the public just doesn’t care.\u00c2\u00a0 At least not in the numbers that
the hype machine tells us they do.<\/p>\n
The problem isn’t that there’s competition for the entertainment dollar, the
problem is this competition is BETTER!\u00c2\u00a0 Playing video games, watching a DVD in
your home theatre, SURFING THE NET AND IM’ING!\u00c2\u00a0 They’re MUCH more enjoyable
than the live SHOW!\u00c2\u00a0 And, until new acts, that drive the culture, are built,
expect business to continue to be soft. <\/p>\n
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