{"id":3202,"date":"2010-07-30T14:44:06","date_gmt":"2010-07-30T22:44:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/?p=3202"},"modified":"2010-07-30T14:44:29","modified_gmt":"2010-07-30T22:44:29","slug":"duty-now-for-the-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/2010\/07\/30\/duty-now-for-the-future\/","title":{"rendered":"Duty Now For The Future"},"content":{"rendered":"

SIXTIES<\/span><\/p>\n

The Beatles and the British Invasion prove there’s a huge appetite for music amongst the baby boomers.\u00c2\u00a0 An era of experimentation is ushered in, aided by FM radio.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s about the statement.\u00c2\u00a0 If you want to know what’s going on, you buy records and listen to the radio.<\/p>\n


SEVENTIES<\/span><\/p>\n

The sixties hang over until about 1973, when the labels are acquired by conglomerates, Lee Abrams programs FM hits and music explodes until corporate rock kills it and disco surges and then they’re both dead.<\/p>\n


EIGHTIES<\/span><\/p>\n

Music is saved by MTV.\u00c2\u00a0 The power of television eclipses the power of radio.<\/p>\n

NINETIES<\/span><\/p>\n

The Tommy Mottola era.\u00c2\u00a0 You let the media do your promotion.\u00c2\u00a0 You create two-dimensional acts that are hyped to high heaven by print, TV and radio, driving customers to buy overpriced CDs.\u00c2\u00a0 No act lasts, but revenue is staggering.<\/p>\n

2000<\/span><\/p>\n

Napster.<\/p>\n

It’s like the train hit a brick wall.\u00c2\u00a0 Or rode ride off the cliff.\u00c2\u00a0 And the old players are still bitching about it.<\/p>\n

MTV played no music.\u00c2\u00a0 Radio had too many commercials.\u00c2\u00a0 People only wanted the single and stole all the music they needed.\u00c2\u00a0 And the end of the music world was predicted.\u00c2\u00a0 But this is not what’s happened.\u00c2\u00a0 Despite lack of recording revenue, more people are making more music than ever before.\u00c2\u00a0 And more people are listening to more music than ever before.\u00c2\u00a0 Music is accessible to all.\u00c2\u00a0 THIS IS A BAD THING?<\/p>\n


2000-2010<\/span><\/p>\n

The major labels bitched themselves into irrelevancy. They own radio and TV, which is like owning the "Perry Como Show" when everybody’s tuned into FM.\u00c2\u00a0 And since the "Como Show"’s ratings are declining, they make everybody who appears sign a contract coughing up a percentage of all their revenue.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s unfair.\u00c2\u00a0 And who wants to watch the "Como Show" anyway?<\/p>\n

Touring…\u00c2\u00a0 Blend the demand of the early seventies with the ubiquity of the nineties and the economic run-up prior to the 2008 crash and everybody thinks there’s an unending demand at inflated prices.\u00c2\u00a0 But there’s not.\u00c2\u00a0 Music doesn’t drive the culture, like in the late sixties and early seventies.\u00c2\u00a0 Media is self-programmed today, no one can get everybody to pay attention.\u00c2\u00a0 And the economy sucks.<\/p>\n

So we’ve got a recording industry and a touring industry that are desperately trying to hold on to what once was, endlessly telling us it’s the best system ever, as if IBM took out ads saying how great the IBM Selectric typewriter still is.\u00c2\u00a0 As if Sony advertised the Discman, never mind the cassette Walkman.\u00c2\u00a0 As if every Apple product didn’t supersede the one manufactured by Sony and Samsung didn’t make the best televisions.\u00c2\u00a0 Evolution has changed the landscape.\u00c2\u00a0 And left us with chaos.<\/p>\n

CHAOS<\/span><\/p>\n

This is what has everybody frustrated.\u00c2\u00a0 The old model is decaying.\u00c2\u00a0 And old media chroniclers are up in arms about it.<\/p>\n

But we can now view trends.<\/p>\n

1. Files have replaced CDs<\/span><\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

Quote all the SoundScan statistics you want.\u00c2\u00a0 Then call Eric Garland at BigChampagne.\u00c2\u00a0 Illegal trading of files far outstrips physical sales, to the point where the latter are essentially irrelevant.\u00c2\u00a0 End result, everybody’s got a lot of music, and this is good.\u00c2\u00a0 The only piece of the puzzle left is to move the public to paid services providing everything all the time for a low price.\u00c2\u00a0 Emphasis on low price.\u00c2\u00a0 The majors refuse to win this war, refuse to collect a little if it insures they won’t collect a lot. But rental\/streaming\/rented tracks living on handsets is the legal solution that’s imminent.\u00c2\u00a0 Just like digital books.<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

Kindle made inroads.\u00c2\u00a0 The iPad tipped the scales.\u00c2\u00a0 Now Amazon sells almost twice as many files as hardcover books.\u00c2\u00a0 And this is a good thing.\u00c2\u00a0 No manufacturing and no wasted hours controlling\/maintaining\/evaluating inventory.<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

2. No one wants the new music of old stars<\/span><\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

But there’s a desire to hear something new.\u00c2\u00a0 But the oldsters will not start over, they will not play to empty houses, they’re afraid to give up what they’ve already got, just like the labels, therefore although they book the majority of revenue, they’re irrelevant.\u00c2\u00a0 Headed straight for the scrapheap.\u00c2\u00a0 Going to their shows is like reading year old newspapers or your school annual.<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

3. New music<\/span><\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

The old powers are trying to perpetuate the old ways.\u00c2\u00a0 But despite hype in major media, most people don’t bond to today’s evanescent radio stars.\u00c2\u00a0 You know how we can tell?\u00c2\u00a0 No one wants to see them live!<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

4. Truly new music<\/span><\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

We’re in the midst of a revolution, that’s what you can’t see amidst the chaos.\u00c2\u00a0 People have not stopped making music.\u00c2\u00a0 Everybody has access to recording equipment, everybody has access to distribution, leading to an incomprehensible marketplace.\u00c2\u00a0 But for how long?<\/p>\n

Search was baffling until Google.\u00c2\u00a0 Now no one complains they can’t find what they’re looking for online.<\/p>\n

In a matter of years you’ll be able to find all the great new music.\u00c2\u00a0 Algorithms won’t be irrelevant, but human opinion will be key.\u00c2\u00a0 In other words, the musicians doing it for the music first will beget online sites where it’s about the music first instead of profit\/selling advertising.<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

5. Credibility\/Trust<\/span><\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

The new acts are not imitating the American Idols, nor are they imitating the pop stars du jour.\u00c2\u00a0 First and foremost, there’s nothing to imitate in the "Idol" paradigm. Everyone’s singing old songs.\u00c2\u00a0 To fewer people!\u00c2\u00a0 You can reconfigure "Idol" all you want, but it’s history, and even "X Factor" will be its own private backwater, because people don’t want homogenized, soulless crap.\u00c2\u00a0 If you think they do, you believe we still live in the nineties.\u00c2\u00a0 And you can’t imitate the pop stars, because the average person has no access to the hit producers.<\/p>\n

No, the modern musician is writing his own material and recording in his bedroom or basement.\u00c2\u00a0 Sure, some are dunning you to listen, most are crap, but the underlying scene is healthy and portends a new golden era.<\/p>\n

It’s all about technology.\u00c2\u00a0 Now there’s no intermediary who gets to say no.\u00c2\u00a0 Just like there’s no intermediary to insure success.\u00c2\u00a0 You make your music and if it’s good, your friends like it.\u00c2\u00a0 And then their friends.\u00c2\u00a0 Word spreads online.\u00c2\u00a0 But because of the cacophony of information, traction is tenuous, development is slow.\u00c2\u00a0 The end result is only the most dedicated persevere.\u00c2\u00a0 Those who whine loudest retreat to graduate school or the dullness of a day job.\u00c2\u00a0 Whereas modern day Bruce Springsteens play in bars waiting for their Jon Landau to recognize their excellence and spread the word.\u00c2\u00a0 One blog post by the right person and you’re suddenly on your way.\u00c2\u00a0 If you’re great.<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

6. Great<\/span><\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

That’s all we’re interested in.\u00c2\u00a0 There’s too much information and too little time.\u00c2\u00a0 You’ve got to be great to keep our interest.\u00c2\u00a0 Which is why the Zune can’t compete with the iPod.\u00c2\u00a0 Why have pretty good if you can have great?<\/p>\n

Acts have been woodshedding for years.\u00c2\u00a0 Lifers know it’s about the music more than self-promotion.\u00c2\u00a0 Anybody who laments they can’t get signed, that no one will back them financially, that they’re not on television, should be ignored.\u00c2\u00a0 This is the last gasp before giving up.\u00c2\u00a0 Legends don’t bitch, they put their heads down and keep on keepin’ on.<\/div>\n

2010-2020<\/span><\/p>\n

People will pay for music.\u00c2\u00a0 Revenue to labels and musicians could be lower, but it won’t pay to get it for free, it will be too easy and too cheap to pay.<\/p>\n

Acts won’t charge a fortune for personal appearances.\u00c2\u00a0 Old acts on their way out can rip you off, substantial acts girding for the future have to charge reasonably, so concertgoers will take a chance, so fans will keep on coming.\u00c2\u00a0 It doesn’t matter what Irving Azoff and Michael Rapino and Randy Phillips and Jerry Mickelson have to say.\u00c2\u00a0 They’re too old.\u00c2\u00a0 The aged infrastructure will fall by the wayside and be replaced by a younger generation which doesn’t put money first.\u00c2\u00a0 Because there’s just not enough cash in music.\u00c2\u00a0 If you want to get rich, be an athlete, go to Silicon Valley, become a banker.\u00c2\u00a0 Music is akin to archery or dressage or some other obscure Olympic sport.\u00c2\u00a0 You do it for the love of it.\u00c2\u00a0 But the public admires passion, they’re drawn to people who do it for the right reasons, and the underlying power of music allows it to blow up in the way an obscure sport cannot.\u00c2\u00a0 Then again, extreme sports have put a dent in Little League and all the hyper-competitive youth sports of yore.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s now about self-expression, being a member of the group.\u00c2\u00a0 This is the opposite of the old wave music business, where elder fat cats tell you how to do it and they build stars surrounded by posses that insulate them from the real world.<\/p>\n

CONCLUSION<\/span><\/p>\n

The bad news had to come before the good.\u00c2\u00a0 Seeds have been planted that are going to flower into a healthy music scene.\u00c2\u00a0 Where people are drawn to new acts expressing themselves from the heart beholden to no one.\u00c2\u00a0 And intermediaries won’t be gatekeepers so much as conduits, akin to the trusted deejays of yore.<\/p>\n

Doesn’t matter what the RIAA says.\u00c2\u00a0 Nor Lucian Grainge or Irving Azoff.\u00c2\u00a0 Or me.\u00c2\u00a0 That’s what the old wave doesn’t understand.\u00c2\u00a0 The technology has empowered the public.\u00c2\u00a0 Change is happening organically.\u00c2\u00a0 It cannot be stopped.\u00c2\u00a0 And just like open source software employs the crowd to create something great for free, the crowd will determine what will be successful in the future.\u00c2\u00a0 It won’t be top down marketing, but bottom up.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s won’t be about dousing a building with gasoline and lighting a blowtorch, but assembling kindling, lighting a match, nurturing the flame, gently placing more twigs on the fire, growing it to the point where it’s almost self-sustaining.<\/p>\n

The glasses are coming.\u00c2\u00a0 We’re all gonna be able to focus and see.\u00c2\u00a0 The great acts will triumph.\u00c2\u00a0 Sure, crap will still exist, but unlike in the nineties, it will be the sideshow.\u00c2\u00a0 The main attraction will be acts that are all about the music, not dancing, not appearance, not the show, but what you hear in your ears.\u00c2\u00a0 After all, isn’t that what music is all about?<\/p>\n

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SIXTIES The Beatles and the British Invasion prove there’s a huge appetite for music amongst the baby boomers.\u00c2\u00a0 An era of experimentation is ushered in, aided by FM radio.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s about the statement.\u00c2\u00a0 If you want to know what’s going on, you buy records and listen to the radio. SEVENTIES The sixties hang over until […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3202","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-music-business"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p96vPs-PE","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3202","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3202"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3202\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3204,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3202\/revisions\/3204"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3202"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3202"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3202"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}