It all comes down to demand.\u00c2\u00a0 Can the act draw a crowd, is it someone people want to see?<\/p>\n
Doesn’t matter how great the venue is, certainly doesn’t matter how great the promoter is, it comes down to the act.<\/p>\n
Then again, people went to the Fillmores, the original ones, not the Live nation rebrands, for the Bill Graham experience.\u00c2\u00a0 But not everything sold out.\u00c2\u00a0 And business is better at the Hollywood Bowl, people like the experience at America’s number one outdoor venue.\u00c2\u00a0 But even the best promoter utilizing the best venue can’t fill the house for an unknown or has-been or just plain lousy act.<\/p>\n
Concert promotion blew up in the late sixties and early seventies during the development and heyday of classic rock.\u00c2\u00a0 Analogize it to video games ten years ago, or Facebook now.\u00c2\u00a0 Music drove the culture, everybody wanted to participate.\u00c2\u00a0 Kicked the tires at Electronic Arts recently? Their numbers are no longer so rosy.\u00c2\u00a0 Video games are a mature business, and especially hit driven, just like the music business.<\/p>\n
The music business was fading in the late seventies.\u00c2\u00a0 Corporate rock turned off the customer and disco didn’t fill the void and then died.\u00c2\u00a0 But along came MTV.\u00c2\u00a0 Nothing can make a star like television, when there are relatively few channels and everybody’s watching.\u00c2\u00a0 Sure, the MTV stars were instantly big and instantly over, but the channel just made new ones, the same way "Ally McBeal" is hot and is then replaced by "Grey’s Anatomy".<\/p>\n
But then came the Internet.\u00c2\u00a0 And suddenly, everyone was no longer focused on the same thing, MTV, which had already reduced video airtime since it didn’t pay financial dividends.<\/p>\n
The major labels and the wannabes continued to play the old game.\u00c2\u00a0 Let’s get that TV exposure, let’s get on terrestrial radio with its twenty two minutes of commercials an hour.\u00c2\u00a0 Broadcasting is king.\u00c2\u00a0 But suddenly, niche was king.\u00c2\u00a0 And a big story online lasts for days, not even weeks or years.\u00c2\u00a0 And the public was sick of being dictated to by rapacious corporations purveying whored-out "artists" only in it for a buck…hell, didn’t they all start clothing companies and do endorsements as soon as they gained some success?<\/p>\n
So suddenly, it was much more difficult to build an act.\u00c2\u00a0 And those acts that did get traction were a poor imitation of the credible classic rock stalwarts.\u00c2\u00a0 They didn’t generate passion, people didn’t believe the words were their own, they’d go to the show to be a part of the mania, but the mania barely lasted.<\/p>\n
Of course there are exceptions.\u00c2\u00a0 Lady GaGa for instance.\u00c2\u00a0 And certainly Taylor Swift, who sang from her heart so kids could connect (and adults too!)\u00c2\u00a0 But everyone else on the hit parade seemed to be produced by Timbaland or Dr. Luke, the acts were just a front.<\/p>\n
The good news is bands like Arcade Fire and the National and yes, even the Hold Steady, could gain a toehold playing by the new rules. Making good music and allowing for online word of mouth to grow their audience, albeit not to stadium proportions.<\/p>\n
Yes, stadiums.\u00c2\u00a0 That’s where the gig took place in the seventies.\u00c2\u00a0 Because Lee Abrams banded together the hits of the alternastars and turned it into a radio format that was the heartbeat of America.\u00c2\u00a0 And many of those bands are still out there.\u00c2\u00a0 Performing the same songs, unfortunately.\u00c2\u00a0 I mean you want to go to your high school reunion, but every year?\u00c2\u00a0 Can’t it be every five years?\u00c2\u00a0 But no, now the old acts have mortgages, they need the cash, they’re on the road incessantly, charging sky high prices to make up for the decline in record sales.<\/p>\n
And Peter Grant turned concert promotion into a 90\/10 split in favor of the artist and Irving Azoff and Howard Kaufman ramped the guarantees up into the stratosphere.<\/p>\n
Live Nation, i.e. Clear Channel, nee SFX, helped.\u00c2\u00a0 It was a public company, with a ton of overhead and infrastructure, it needed to dominate.\u00c2\u00a0 It became like sports teams fighting over free agents.\u00c2\u00a0 Hurt me before I overpay again!\u00c2\u00a0 But, like EMI and Citi, Live Nation in many cases was bidding against itself.\u00c2\u00a0 But it all worked until all of the above took hold, there were few new acts and the old ones were too available and overcharged.\u00c2\u00a0 Isn’t rule one of dating to say you’re not available?\u00c2\u00a0 Unless it’s true love.\u00c2\u00a0 But true love in the music business went out with the twentieth century.\u00c2\u00a0 Sure, it has been rekindled in niches.\u00c2\u00a0 But how much money can you make off the niche?<\/p>\n
And it all comes down to money.\u00c2\u00a0 Once upon a time, it was about the music, that was long ago.<\/p>\n
But to the niche acts, that’s where it’s at.\u00c2\u00a0 And fans of music will go to the show, multiple times a year, for a hit of real music.\u00c2\u00a0 But they don’t want to see the old acts, nor the Top Forty wonders and they certainly don’t want to overpay.<\/p>\n
So you can talk about the economy, all the external conditions in the concert promotion sphere, but they’re secondary to the acts, the music.<\/p>\n
Will some of these niche acts blow up over time?<\/p>\n
Yes, but to what degree, where we live in an on demand world where you experience only that which you want to?<\/p>\n
Will there be ongoing demand for the old superstars?<\/p>\n
Not at these prices.<\/p>\n
Record labels are screwed.<\/p>\n
And concert promotion is a river of nickels.<\/p>\n
And the true profit in concert promotion is in the fees, which the public abhors.<\/p>\n
Sound like there’s a problem?<\/p>\n
Only if you’re a businessman.<\/p>\n
Focus on the music and the road to salvation will not only appear, but will ultimately be paved with gold.<\/p>\n
But want that cash now by throwing old and brand new against the wall and you’re living in dangerous territory.<\/p>\n
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