What Will Disappear:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/h3>\n Discs<\/strong><\/p>\n It’s going to happen sooner than you think.\u00c2\u00a0 What with Apple introducing a $149 Nano and a $69 Shuffle today.\u00c2\u00a0 We’ve seen this movie again and again.\u00c2\u00a0 Old wave technology holds its own, with slight erosion, and then CAVES!\u00c2\u00a0 It happened in photography, it’s going to happen in music.\u00c2\u00a0 And the labels are just not ready for it.\u00c2\u00a0 Oh, retail is.\u00c2\u00a0 Every music retailer has either gone bankrupt or is letting its lease(s) expire or is diversifying greatly into other merchandise.\u00c2\u00a0 As for Best Buy, Wal-Mart, etc, it was NEVER about the music.\u00c2\u00a0 They can survive fine without it.\u00c2\u00a0 They’ll find something else to give away below cost to get people in the store.\u00c2\u00a0 But, record labels…they’re fucked.<\/p>\n Napster<\/strong><\/p>\n Blame it on Microsoft, who can never get software right until the third iteration.<\/p>\n Blame it on the major labels.\u00c2\u00a0 Who didn’t see downloading AHEAD of time and push rental.<\/p>\n But don’t blame it on the people.\u00c2\u00a0 The people want to own music.\u00c2\u00a0 After all, what’s more valuable than your favorite tunes?<\/p>\n Music On Terrestrial Radio<\/strong><\/p>\n You can’t compete with iPods and commercial free music on satellite.\u00c2\u00a0 Radio will go talk.\u00c2\u00a0 Its local flavor being what saves it from going belly-up completely.<\/p>\n Music On MTV<\/strong><\/p>\n Wait, it’s ALREADY gone.\u00c2\u00a0 Give up the ghost, MTV only plays videos so you’ll give them talent to use in their promotions.\u00c2\u00a0 They’d eviscerate it completely if they could, it gets HORRIBLE ratings.\u00c2\u00a0 Music video, which will be sans major production in most cases, will be a Net form.<\/p>\n Stereos<\/strong><\/p>\n Actually, for the under-thirty set, they’ve ALREADY gone.<\/p>\n Music is portable.\u00c2\u00a0 That’s the main place you hear it, on the run.\u00c2\u00a0 Except for when it emanates from your computer, whether through speakers attached directly to it or via bridges that throw the sound around your house.<\/p>\n You doubt me?\u00c2\u00a0 Check out a dorm room.\u00c2\u00a0 Go to a store and try to buy two-channel, even at a HIGH END shop.<\/p>\n Long Term Recording Contracts<\/strong><\/p>\n Hell, they’re already dying in the U.K.\u00c2\u00a0 The majors LICENSE a record or two and end up with NOTHING!<\/p>\n It’s gonna be like the movie business.\u00c2\u00a0 Everybody’s a free agent, nobody’s locked up for a long time.\u00c2\u00a0 Except to THEMSELVES!<\/p>\n THIS is what the Net is bringing us.\u00c2\u00a0 THIS is why the majors are fighting Net distribution so hard.\u00c2\u00a0 If you can be on an indie and get paid…shit, what do you need the major for?<\/p>\n Furthermore, those contracts that are signed will be more equitable to the artist and clearer and shorter.<\/p>\n Clubs<\/strong><\/p>\n Nothing replaces the out of the home experience.\u00c2\u00a0 This dancing and drugging to prerecorded tracks isn’t gonna go on forever.\u00c2\u00a0 People want live music.\u00c2\u00a0 It will start locally, in small places, and grow from there.\u00c2\u00a0 People want to see the acts they’ve read about\/and heard on the Net.\u00c2\u00a0 The Net is a conduit to LIVE, not to traditional major labels.<\/p>\n Careers<\/strong><\/p>\n It’s gonna be hard to break someone, but once they’ve been established, they’re gonna be here for good.\u00c2\u00a0 Because the fans that supported them on the way up, who built them, who sold their story, won’t abandon them because they believe they’ve got an investment.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s THEIR band, not the MEDIA’S!<\/p>\n A Ton Of Music<\/strong><\/p>\n Do you remember the one album, three year, five single paradigm?<\/p>\n I don’t give a fuck if your album has five singles anymore.\u00c2\u00a0 The correct parlance is five HITS!\u00c2\u00a0 You’ll release a steady stream of product, building investment in the band.\u00c2\u00a0 Dividends will pay off not only in sale of this music (as part of a bundle, not as single tracks on iTunes), but touring, merchandising…\u00c2\u00a0 Fans will give you ALL their money.<\/p>\n As for singles artists…\u00c2\u00a0 It will be the early seventies all over again.\u00c2\u00a0 You can run a track up Top Forty radio, but you can’t make any real money.\u00c2\u00a0 Hell, the only reason the labels could make real money selling tracks in the past decade was because you HAD to buy the complete album to hear them.\u00c2\u00a0 Those days are THROUGH!<\/p>\n Powerful Managers<\/strong><\/p>\n Gatekeepers of talent.\u00c2\u00a0 That’s what the major labels thought they were.\u00c2\u00a0 In the nineties all the mid-level managers went to work for the labels and the company dictated to those that were left, even the big powerhouses had to deal with "corporate policy".\u00c2\u00a0 No more.\u00c2\u00a0 The manager will be king once again.<\/p>\n A Final Price For Tickets<\/strong><\/p>\n Once the dinosaurs slow down, and the business has to WORK for live revenue, it’s going to be scary.\u00c2\u00a0 Developing new talent is the first criterion for health, but the next will be consumer trust.\u00c2\u00a0 The final cost of a ticket will be clear.\u00c2\u00a0 The public will demand it.\u00c2\u00a0 The days of ordering a $25 ticket that turns out to be $40 are coming to an end.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s gonna be $40.\u00c2\u00a0 Actually lower, since the ruse will have been revealed.<\/p>\n Attorney Strength<\/strong><\/p>\n These weasels will just adjust their loyalty to the managers from the labels.<\/p>\n First we kill all the lawyers?<\/p>\n Sounds good to me.\u00c2\u00a0 They don’t write the music, why should they have such guaranteed tenures\/incomes?\u00c2\u00a0 The problem is too many of today’s lawyers are loyal to the label before the act, since the label will survive and the act won’t.\u00c2\u00a0 This is truly heinous.<\/p>\n New Blood<\/strong><\/p>\n Right now there’s some twentysomething sleeping on a mattress, working on sweat equity, who’s going to be the new king of this business.\u00c2\u00a0 Actually, a FEW!\u00c2\u00a0 Just like Steve Jobs and Bill Gates stole computer thunder from IBM, these guys will decimate the old players.\u00c2\u00a0 Mainframes are history.\u00c2\u00a0 Replaced by localized PCs (or PCs strung up in parallel!)\u00c2\u00a0 Think of the music business the same way.\u00c2\u00a0 As something DECENTRALIZED!<\/p>\n <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" What Will Disappear: Discs It’s going to happen sooner than you think.\u00c2\u00a0 What with Apple introducing a $149 Nano and a $69 Shuffle today.\u00c2\u00a0 We’ve seen this movie again and again.\u00c2\u00a0 Old wave technology holds its own, with slight erosion, and then CAVES!\u00c2\u00a0 It happened in photography, it’s going to happen in music.\u00c2\u00a0 And the 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Will Appear:<\/em><\/h3>\n