{"id":2887,"date":"2010-05-12T11:47:27","date_gmt":"2010-05-12T19:47:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/?p=2887"},"modified":"2010-05-12T11:49:41","modified_gmt":"2010-05-12T19:49:41","slug":"explanations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/2010\/05\/12\/explanations\/","title":{"rendered":"Explanations"},"content":{"rendered":"

RHAPSODY DROP<\/span><\/p>\n

From 800,000 subscribers a year ago to 650,000 today.\u00c2\u00a0 A nineteen percent drop.<\/p>\n

Pundits and players say this is evidence that no one wants a subscription.<\/p>\n

No, this is evidence that you can listen to all the music you want for free online anyway.<\/p>\n

Rhapsody portability has historically sucked.\u00c2\u00a0 Sure, you can take your music with you, but not on an iPod and good luck with the sync (and usability of the device).\u00c2\u00a0 I know I couldn’t make my sync\/To Go feature work…<\/p>\n

So most people are subscribing to Rhapsody in order to listen at home, online, in front of the computer.\u00c2\u00a0 But the problem is you can now listen to everything you want for free, legally.\u00c2\u00a0 Well, almost legally.\u00c2\u00a0 Sure, LaLa is disappearing in its present incarnation, but just try searching for that hot new track on YouTube.\u00c2\u00a0 It may have been posted illegally, but the site’s not illegal, you can stream your track instantly.\u00c2\u00a0 As well as the authorized video.\u00c2\u00a0 Never mind MySpace, the band’s site…<\/p>\n

So charging to listen to music online is very difficult now.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s all about mobile, the next frontier.<\/p>\n

People want mobile.\u00c2\u00a0 That’s what an iPod delivers.<\/p>\n

And now Rhapsody and MOG and Spotify offer mobile solutions.\u00c2\u00a0 And be clear here, they CHARGE for these subscriptions.<\/p>\n

Sure, you can take the music you own with you.\u00c2\u00a0 Sure, you can stream Pandora.\u00c2\u00a0 Sure, you can dial up YouTube on your iPhone.\u00c2\u00a0 But none of these is as good a solution as being able to play any track from the cloud, instantly.<\/p>\n

And don’t talk to me about bandwidth.\u00c2\u00a0 That’s the problem, bandwidth is increasing.\u00c2\u00a0 The time to strike is now.\u00c2\u00a0 Especially in the U.S., where mobile speeds are slow and in many cases unavailable.\u00c2\u00a0 You see these new mobile subscription apps allow 2,000+ tracks to live on your handheld.\u00c2\u00a0 So if you’re out of range, if you’re climbing Mt. Everest, you don’t lose your tunes.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s just like owning them. Well, as long as you continue paying the subscription fee!<\/p>\n

And transfer is via the cloud, very quickly and seamlessly.<\/p>\n

Think about it.\u00c2\u00a0 Why buy the track on your computer if you can listen to it for free whenever you want?<\/p>\n

Spotify free on the desktop is an incentive to get people to pay for mobile access.<\/p>\n

Look behind the statistics.<\/p>\n

TICKETSNOW<\/span><\/p>\n

Well, Rapino knows the truth here, he admitted it.\u00c2\u00a0 But the underlying significance is staggering.<\/p>\n

TicketsNow, the secondary market resale division of Ticketmaster is now making $1 million to $2 million instead of the $15 million it used to.<\/p>\n

The reason?\u00c2\u00a0 The removal of TicketsNow links from the Ticketmaster site as per agreement with the Attorney General of New Jersey subsequent to the Springsteen fracas.<\/p>\n

Wow.<\/p>\n

Speak to a record company.\u00c2\u00a0 Price and positioning means something.\u00c2\u00a0 In other words, a record on an endcap, at the front of the store, sells more.<\/p>\n

So the Ticketmaster site is prime real estate.\u00c2\u00a0 What’s located there will move product.\u00c2\u00a0 Sure, TicketsNow was literally tickets.\u00c2\u00a0 But maybe, if Live Nation can cook up some reasonable offerings and put them on the Ticketmaster site those products will sell too.\u00c2\u00a0 Kind of like you buy magazines and candy located at the checkout stand.<\/p>\n

Live Nation has to create the products and acts have to agree to utilize them.\u00c2\u00a0 Physical retail is dying.\u00c2\u00a0 There is proven demand for tickets.\u00c2\u00a0 Presently, iTunes and Ticketmaster are the two storefronts.\u00c2\u00a0 Use them.<\/p>\n

CONCORD RECORDS<\/span><\/p>\n

Had big stories in the "Los Angeles Times" and "New York Times" business sections recently.\u00c2\u00a0 Did something happen?\u00c2\u00a0 Yes, Concord bought Rounder and signed Paul McCartney.\u00c2\u00a0 Was this newsworthy?\u00c2\u00a0 Yes.\u00c2\u00a0 But both of these articles appeared long after the deals were consummated.<\/p>\n

In other words, this isn’t news, this is a public relations push.<\/p>\n

Sure, if there’s an oil spill or an election the newspaper is on the scene.\u00c2\u00a0 Otherwise, it’s manipulated by scores of publicity agents.\u00c2\u00a0 This is the model you want to save?<\/p>\n

Sure, it can be bad online too.\u00c2\u00a0 Mommy bloggers take goods and write positively about them.\u00c2\u00a0 But without one dominant voice filtering the news, a more accurate picture is revealed.\u00c2\u00a0 Which brings us to…<\/p>\n

iPHONE VS. ANDROID<\/span><\/p>\n

Now I know the L.A. "Times" deserves to die.\u00c2\u00a0 This was a front page story in the Business section today.<\/p>\n

Let’s assume the statistics are accurate.\u00c2\u00a0 They say that Google’s Android outsold the iPhone 28% to 21% in the first quarter.\u00c2\u00a0 On the surface, the story appears significant.\u00c2\u00a0 Open systems beat closed systems once again.<\/p>\n

But peering deeper, one sees that Verizon was selling Android phones in a buy one for $50, get one free offer.\u00c2\u00a0 As pcworld.com asks, isn’t this like Prince skewing the "Billboard" chart by giving away his album at the gig and counting it as a sale?<\/p>\n

Yes, PCWorld debunked this story yesterday: <\/p>\n

\n
Don’t Be Misled by Android Sales Stats<\/a><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n

And although the L.A. "Times" story does state that the iPhone is only offered by one carrier, it didn’t delineate the classic Apple sales slowdown in anticipation of a new device, in this case the heavily reported 4G.\u00c2\u00a0 Only the most ignorant and desperate are now buying iPhones.<\/p>\n

But it gets worse.\u00c2\u00a0 If you read to the end of the "Times" story, you find out that the statistics are based on a limited online survey.<\/p>\n

What, you’re going to trust an online survey???<\/p>\n

Come on, do you answer those?<\/p>\n

In other words, what is this data worth?<\/p>\n

In other words, do we trust "research".<\/p>\n

Or, to cite the cliche, research will tell you where you’ve been, but not where you’re going.<\/p>\n

Every year there’s another highfalutin’ economist who whips out a study about P2P trades.\u00c2\u00a0 They impact sales, they don’t.\u00c2\u00a0 If you’re paying attention to these, you’re screwed.\u00c2\u00a0 Sales are down. So, what are you gonna do about it?\u00c2\u00a0 Listen to someone who’s not in the business?<\/p>\n

BACK TO CONCORD<\/span><\/p>\n

Rounder fetched a fire sale price.\u00c2\u00a0 Well, not that bad, but not close to what it would have sold for a decade ago.\u00c2\u00a0 Because what’s the upside for a company that sells a limited amount of mostly physical product.<\/p>\n

One can ask the same thing of Concord.\u00c2\u00a0 At least the "New York Times" raised the question.<\/p>\n

In other words, if you’ve got no other rights, can you make it selling music, and just music?\u00c2\u00a0 Especially when you can’t even get niche product into so many physical retail stores, especially the big boxes, which carry only a few titles?<\/p>\n

The future isn’t Concord Records.\u00c2\u00a0 And it most certainly isn’t Paul McCartney’s catalog.\u00c2\u00a0 Unlike the Beatles albums, it doesn’t move!<\/p>\n

Last year, McCartney sold a grand total of 357,000 records.\u00c2\u00a0 Not bad, except that two thirds of those were of a newly released live album.\u00c2\u00a0 Hell, in the year previous, 2008, McCartney sold just 128,000 albums.<\/p>\n

And no matter how many Paul sells, how much is Concord going to net?\u00c2\u00a0 What did they give up to get this deal?<\/p>\n

Paul’s a headline.\u00c2\u00a0 But business is bad.<\/p>\n

Business for all record companies is bad.\u00c2\u00a0 Because presently, most people are not paying for music.\u00c2\u00a0 The key is to look behind the facade and see that the way out is to get everybody to pay a little, like the cell phone companies.<\/p>\n


BACK TO iPHONE\/ANDROID<\/span><\/p>\n

So, if you read the L.A. "Times" story you’ll think that open systems are better than closed ones.\u00c2\u00a0 That Microsoft will always beat Apple. But didn’t Apple kill in the handheld music player world?\u00c2\u00a0 Isn’t Apple killing in smart phones?<\/p>\n

Apple’s not only selling the devices, at a premium price, they’re reaping revenue as a result of the App Store, and now with iAd revenues should jump further.\u00c2\u00a0 Isn’t it Apple that keeps rolling out successful new products?\u00c2\u00a0 Sure, Google is great, I love it, Bing doesn’t deliver anything close in terms of results.\u00c2\u00a0 But what is Google’s other success again, that generates revenue?\u00c2\u00a0 Wasn’t Microsoft supposed to kill AOL?\u00c2\u00a0 Wasn’t the Zune supposed to kill the iPod?\u00c2\u00a0 But it didn’t really happen that way at all.<\/p>\n

iPhones work better.\u00c2\u00a0 Ask anybody with a Droid.\u00c2\u00a0 Typing on the physical keyboard is a nightmare.<\/p>\n

iPhones can hold more apps.<\/p>\n

iPhones have more apps.<\/p>\n

In other words, the iPhone is more usable.\u00c2\u00a0 And usability is what triumphs today.<\/p>\n

Don’t believe the hype.\u00c2\u00a0 The Internet is about leveling the playing field, getting the real story out.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s better than old media this way, however flawed the online maelstrom may be.<\/p>\n

I don’t own an iPhone.\u00c2\u00a0 I need to be on Verizon, where voice works.\u00c2\u00a0 And I live by e-mail.\u00c2\u00a0 Which is far superior on a BlackBerry, especially if you don’t work for a major company with an exchange server.\u00c2\u00a0 But I’m following this story trying to divine the truth.\u00c2\u00a0 Is the straight media?<\/p>\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

RHAPSODY DROP From 800,000 subscribers a year ago to 650,000 today.\u00c2\u00a0 A nineteen percent drop. Pundits and players say this is evidence that no one wants a subscription. No, this is evidence that you can listen to all the music you want for free online anyway. Rhapsody portability has historically sucked.\u00c2\u00a0 Sure, you can take […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[4,2,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2887","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-apple","category-music-business","category-technology"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p96vPs-Kz","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2887","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2887"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2887\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2889,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2887\/revisions\/2889"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2887"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2887"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2887"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}