{"id":2584,"date":"2010-01-20T08:27:07","date_gmt":"2010-01-20T16:27:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/?p=2584"},"modified":"2010-01-20T08:27:07","modified_gmt":"2010-01-20T16:27:07","slug":"end-of-an-era-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/2010\/01\/20\/end-of-an-era-2\/","title":{"rendered":"End Of An Era?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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"I think records were just a little bubble through time and those who made a living from them for a while were lucky. There is no reason why anyone should have made so much money from selling records except that everything was right for this period of time. I always knew it would run out sooner or later. It couldn’t last, and now it’s running out. I don’t particularly care that it is and like the way things are going. The record age was just a blip. It was a bit like if you had a source of whale blubber in the 1840s and it could be used as fuel. Before gas came along, if you traded in whale blubber, you were the richest man on Earth. Then gas came along and you’d be stuck with your whale blubber. Sorry mate – history’s moving along. Recorded music equals whale blubber. Eventually, something else will replace it."<\/p>\n

Brian Eno
On gospel, Abba and the death of the record: an audience with Brian Eno<\/a><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n

In his new book "Linchpin", Seth Godin says the factory era is over.\u00c2\u00a0 The concept of playing the game, tamping down your creativity in a social contract with the corporation for a lifetime job is history.<\/p>\n

My uncle was a company man.<\/p>\n

The only problem was the companies he worked for kept going out of business.<\/p>\n

Is it companies going out of business, or has business irrevocably changed?<\/p>\n

It’s hard to get someone to overpay anymore.\u00c2\u00a0 We can complain about Wal-Mart ruining downtowns, but blame the Internet too. Google any product and you’ll see offers for it at a rock bottom price in the ads on the right.<\/p>\n

I still believe in overpaying for service, do it all the time.\u00c2\u00a0 But how often do you get service?\u00c2\u00a0 I go into a department store and after yelling for help, the clerk tells me I’m on my own.<\/p>\n

So for all you people telling us to erect walls, to bring all the jobs back home, I ask you how do you feel about paying $5,500 for a flat screen TV?\u00c2\u00a0 Or three hundred dollars for a basic pair of shoes?\u00c2\u00a0 That’s what they’d cost if made in America.<\/p>\n

Oh, don’t get your knickers in a knot.\u00c2\u00a0 I don’t want to get into a debate about protectionism and NAFTA and…<\/p>\n

I’ll just say we can’t go backwards.\u00c2\u00a0 The public expects easy availability of high quality commodity goods.\u00c2\u00a0 I realized this when a VCR started selling for under a hundred bucks.\u00c2\u00a0 You no longer cared if it broke, you just bought a new one.\u00c2\u00a0 As for fixing it…where could you find someone with that expertise, never mind the fact that the resulting fee would be eighty percent of a brand new item.<\/p>\n

It’s hard to compete with the behemoths unless you’re selling a unique item.\u00c2\u00a0 That’s Mr. Godin’s point.\u00c2\u00a0 To utilize your creativity to evidence your uniqueness, and ultimately climb up the ladder.<\/p>\n

But even more interesting to me is his thesis that we’re not in a dip, not in a bad period we’re supposed to endure to get to the other side, but that things have irrevocably changed.<\/p>\n

Maybe no one will pay for recorded music again.<\/p>\n

I actually don’t believe that, but I will say that the major label model is history.\u00c2\u00a0 The idea of getting millions to pay a lot for more music than they want is passe.\u00c2\u00a0 Mr. Godin would say that by stifling creativity, the labels are signing their death warrant, and I agree, without unique music, without young people employed who are empowered to do things a different way, revenues can not return.\u00c2\u00a0 But what if it’s not about mismanagement so much as a paradigm shift?<\/p>\n

Like newspapers.\u00c2\u00a0 Mr. Godin says that journalists all write the same story the same way and want to be handsomely remunerated because they’re doing important work.<\/p>\n

He’s right.\u00c2\u00a0 Oftentimes I read the same story from different outlets.\u00c2\u00a0 And the AP, Reuters, L.A. "Times" and "New York Times" reports are essentially identical.\u00c2\u00a0 One writer would be enough.\u00c2\u00a0 More were necessary when we didn’t have such easy access to information, but now?\u00c2\u00a0 As for the "Wall Street Journal", it tends to be the exception.\u00c2\u00a0 Catering to an intelligent business crowd, the "Journal" shoots higher, which might just be why its residence behind a pay wall online works, financially.<\/p>\n

But what if the Internet is not something to be stopped, but is something impossible to stop, like a tsunami, toppling not only music, but movies, news and TV in its wake.<\/p>\n

You can’t stop a tsunami.\u00c2\u00a0 You can get out of the way, but you can’t put up your hand and tell it to cease coming forward and turn around.\u00c2\u00a0 As for building a wall…\u00c2\u00a0 A good idea years ahead of time, but when the wave’s on its way, it’s too late.<\/p>\n

Maybe there was a way out of this mess for these media companies, Seth says the "New York Times" had an offer from Amazon that would have delivered billions, but was too afraid of pissing off Barnes & Noble to take it.\u00c2\u00a0 But it’s almost too late now.<\/p>\n

We’ve got a press.\u00c2\u00a0 Reporting what it deems reality.\u00c2\u00a0 But is it?<\/p>\n

Why should we trust the reporter, asking questions, when every topic known to man has an online expert with years of experience speaking the truth, explaining what’s going on.<\/p>\n

And is something really important if I don’t have to pay attention?<\/p>\n

Sure, the disaster in Haiti is important.\u00c2\u00a0 But I didn’t bother to look at the list of Golden Globe winners.\u00c2\u00a0 Why?\u00c2\u00a0 Nothing in there is going to change my opinion on the content.<\/p>\n

It used to be if the "New York Times" said something was important, it was.<\/p>\n

Today the "New York Times" reviewed the new Eels album.<\/p>\n

Expect it to stiff just like the last one.<\/p>\n

But at least the "Times" is bringing it to attention.<\/p>\n

I say no.\u00c2\u00a0 I can’t read a review by someone whose taste I don’t know, who may not be a fan of the Eels to begin with.<\/p>\n

I’m just saying that maybe you can’t beat back the march of progress, maybe the public has power it’s never going to give back. Not only to steal music, but to bite back, ruining your reputation online if you make a misstep.\u00c2\u00a0 We no longer live in a top-down society.\u00c2\u00a0 And no one has such a lock on the public’s attention that he’s guaranteed revenue.<\/p>\n

Seth focuses on how to cope in this new era.\u00c2\u00a0 He tells you to embrace everything that’s been drummed out of you, all the creativity, all the risk-taking.\u00c2\u00a0 That uniqueness\/insight\/creativity is ultimately recognized and rewarded.\u00c2\u00a0 I think that’s great advice.<\/p>\n

But more interesting to me is those on the other side.\u00c2\u00a0 Those who used to have the power.<\/p>\n

It’s hard to make money on a commodity.\u00c2\u00a0 Pioneer stopped making flat screen televisions, Circuit City went out of business. Southwest Airlines is victorious, but the old carriers with legacy costs just can’t get the numbers right.<\/p>\n

Point being that there’s always someone who will deliver the necessary commodity goods at the lowest price.\u00c2\u00a0 But what are the necessary goods, and what is that price?<\/p>\n

Maybe arguing with online music distributors over free goods is a waste of time.\u00c2\u00a0 Maybe getting people to pay for music is about all the extras, a bundle at a low cost.\u00c2\u00a0 You might think the value of a hit record is a zillion dollars, but there’s absolutely no way to prevent the easy digital copying and distribution of that item, no way.\u00c2\u00a0 So why fight a war you can’t win?<\/p>\n

Everybody’s trying to keep us in the past.<\/p>\n

The record companies want us to buy overpriced CDs.<\/p>\n

The movie companies want us to wait until we can see a movie in our home.\u00c2\u00a0 Then they’ll let us buy it, but not rent it.<\/p>\n

Newspapers are stating they’re a public good and must be maintained, you must pay them for the news.<\/p>\n

But maybe all this outcry is completely futile.\u00c2\u00a0 Maybe we’ve entered a new era.\u00c2\u00a0 Maybe the Internet killed the old paradigm.\u00c2\u00a0 Maybe it’s not worth crying about anymore.<\/p>\n

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