{"id":2566,"date":"2010-01-16T08:42:12","date_gmt":"2010-01-16T16:42:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/?p=2566"},"modified":"2010-01-16T08:44:53","modified_gmt":"2010-01-16T16:44:53","slug":"risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/2010\/01\/16\/risk\/","title":{"rendered":"Risk"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Lou Pearlman saw a structural hole in the music business.\u00c2\u00a0 He foresaw a desire for cute, young boys singing melodic songs, dancing all the while.<\/p>\n<p>Was anybody producing anything similar?\u00c2\u00a0 Was melodic music dominating the charts?<\/p>\n<p>No, as the nineties wore on, beats were the key.\u00c2\u00a0 Rap was king.\u00c2\u00a0 If you wanted to compete in the music business, you went into the rap business, after all, that&#8217;s what radio wanted.\u00c2\u00a0 And if you listen to anybody established in the business, you don&#8217;t pour money into something radio doesn&#8217;t want.<\/p>\n<p>And U.S. radio didn&#8217;t want the Backstreet Boys.\u00c2\u00a0 What traction they got was overseas, singing the songs of foreign producers and writers.\u00c2\u00a0 It was costing Lou Pearlman money.<\/p>\n<p>Then suddenly, boy bands blew up.\u00c2\u00a0 And Lou Pearlman made a fortune.<\/p>\n<p>This was before Internet downloading.\u00c2\u00a0 CDs were expensive.\u00c2\u00a0 But the company kept the lion&#8217;s share of the money, and you could sign wannabes for next to nothing.\u00c2\u00a0 Good-looking boys with good voices were a dime a dozen.<\/p>\n<p>In other words, how risky was Lou Pearlman&#8217;s venture?<\/p>\n<p>If you listen to anybody in the business today, they still say the same thing.\u00c2\u00a0 That everything starts with radio.\u00c2\u00a0 Sure, it costs you money, but radio reaches many people quickly.\u00c2\u00a0 And it requires beats, that&#8217;s the Top Forty radio sound, so you should make dance-oriented, bottom-heavy music.<\/p>\n<p>But few of these beat-oriented acts do good road business.\u00c2\u00a0 And the savviest know that most of today&#8217;s revenue comes from the road.\u00c2\u00a0 So, you should focus on what puts people in seats.<\/p>\n<p>Jam band aficionados will tell you it&#8217;s all about the players.\u00c2\u00a0 Get some long-haired twentysomethings who can noodle and the college audience will find them, it&#8217;s a sure thing.\u00c2\u00a0 But there are two problems&#8230;\u00c2\u00a0 One, the field is already populated with a throng of acts.\u00c2\u00a0 Two, despite being established for forty years, most people aren&#8217;t interested in jam band music.\u00c2\u00a0 This doesn&#8217;t mean that you can&#8217;t make good dough improvising to a rock beat, it&#8217;s just that it&#8217;s not easy to break through the clutter, and it&#8217;s almost impossible to become ubiquitous.<\/p>\n<p>But there is a hole in the business today.\u00c2\u00a0 Interestingly, it&#8217;s analogous to the one Lou Pearlman saw a decade and a half ago.\u00c2\u00a0 People want melodies, songs they can sing along with.<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s what separated the Backstreet Boys from New Kids On The Block.\u00c2\u00a0 The material was good.<\/p>\n<p>But as soon as Justin Timberlake grew up and went solo, he started making beat-driven music.\u00c2\u00a0 Britney too.\u00c2\u00a0 Why?\u00c2\u00a0 Because the acts wanted to shed their adolescence, because they wanted to be hip, they wanted to be where everybody else was.<\/p>\n<p>But if you make that music, you&#8217;re dependent on hits.\u00c2\u00a0 As big a star as Justin Timberlake is, he won&#8217;t do much road business if he doesn&#8217;t continue to release hits.\u00c2\u00a0 Just talk to Mariah Carey.\u00c2\u00a0 With hits, people want to see her, without them, not so much.<\/p>\n<p>So what if we get together a group of good-looking people (that always helps.)\u00c2\u00a0 And we have them sing melodic tunes.\u00c2\u00a0 Even better, what if they write this material themselves, giving the act substance, allowing adulation to be more than skin deep?<\/p>\n<p>Then we&#8217;ve got the Beatles.\u00c2\u00a0 Yup, that was the formula.<\/p>\n<p>And the Beatles sounded like nothing on the radio.\u00c2\u00a0 But soon, the sound that dominated the radio before them disappeared.<\/p>\n<p>Please read Malcolm Gladwell&#8217;s article &quot;The Sure Thing&quot; in this week&#8217;s &quot;New Yorker&quot; (January 18, 2010).\u00c2\u00a0 In it, he debunks the myth of entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurs are not big risk-takers, they&#8217;re very conservative, but they exploit the structural holes to achieve success.<\/p>\n<p>Gladwell references a book by two French authors, &quot;From Predators To Icons: Exposing the Myth of the Business Hero&quot;.<\/p>\n<p>I first encountered this book in a &quot;BusinessWeek&quot; review<\/p>\n<blockquote dir=\"ltr\" style=\"margin-right: 0px;\">\n<div style=\"margin-left: 40px;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessweek.com\/magazine\/content\/09_52\/b4161107212914.htm\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"Busting the Myth of the Heroic CEO\">Busting the Myth of the Heroic CEO<\/a><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>This is the key element:<\/p>\n<blockquote dir=\"ltr\" style=\"margin-right: 0px;\">\n<div style=\"margin-left: 40px;\">&quot;Captains of industry get ahead not by means of productive risk-taking and innovation, Villette and Vuillermot argue, but by &#8216;predation&#8217;: ruthless exploitation of market imperfections and rivals. The distinction between &#8216;good bosses&#8217; and &#8216;crooked bosses&#8217; is a fiction perpetrated by corporate propagandists. &#8216;The businessman spends his time getting around the laws and ordinary conceptions of morality.&#8217;&quot;<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>I know a lot of rich people.\u00c2\u00a0 They didn&#8217;t accumulate their wealth by being nice.<\/p>\n<p>Oh, there are exceptions, artists in particular.\u00c2\u00a0 But show me a man with a hundred million bucks, and I&#8217;ll show you a scumbag.\u00c2\u00a0 At least someone who bends the rules, someone whose actions would horrify the hoi polloi.<\/p>\n<p>You don&#8217;t get rich by accident.\u00c2\u00a0 But we don&#8217;t want to scratch the surface too deeply, because we can&#8217;t handle the truth.\u00c2\u00a0 Those we revere&#8230;if you knew the details, you&#8217;d love them no more.<\/p>\n<p>So, having a eureka moment, thinking I&#8217;d finally found a book that stated what I believed, I continued reading the review.\u00c2\u00a0 Which trashed the book. Because, after all, aren&#8217;t CEOs heroes?\u00c2\u00a0 Aren&#8217;t they entitled to that incredible compensation?<\/p>\n<p>Yes, according to &quot;BusinessWeek&quot;.\u00c2\u00a0 The opposite would be too much to swallow.\u00c2\u00a0 Like finding out Milli Vanilli didn&#8217;t play on their records.\u00c2\u00a0 Or Jimmy Page played lead guitar on many British Invasion hits.<\/p>\n<p>But Gladwell is on the same team as the French.\u00c2\u00a0 He thinks they&#8217;ve got it right.\u00c2\u00a0 That American CEOs are overpaid to take risks which rarely pan out. You&#8217;d be better off investing with the well-financed entrepreneur, who is much more conservative.<\/p>\n<p>Explain Warner Music&#8217;s investments in Bulldog and LaLa to me.\u00c2\u00a0 Both disasters.\u00c2\u00a0 The first predicated on an unproven theory, that the wealthy will overpay to be one of a thousand up close and personal&#8230;hell, isn&#8217;t a thousand too many to be up close and personal?\u00c2\u00a0 The latter on the fact that people not in the music business can figure out an online distribution platform, even though they&#8217;ve got no experience.\u00c2\u00a0 Both were losing propositions.<\/p>\n<p>Contrast that with Spotify.<\/p>\n<p>Spotify sees a looming disaster.\u00c2\u00a0 The day that CD sales fall through the floor and the labels are looking for alternative revenue.\u00c2\u00a0 By raising a boatload of cash, and furthermore signing the labels on as partners, Spotify can hold on, until its time comes.<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s what John Paulson did.\u00c2\u00a0 The hedge-fund manager who made four billion dollars in 2007, betting against mortgages.\u00c2\u00a0 He made more billions in 2008.\u00c2\u00a0 Everybody said houses only increase in value.\u00c2\u00a0 But Paulson&#8217;s research said otherwise.<\/p>\n<p>Every day I get e-mail from people saying they&#8217;ve solved the music industry&#8217;s online distribution problem.\u00c2\u00a0 I laugh.\u00c2\u00a0 They&#8217;ve got no money and no rights, and without both, you&#8217;ve got nothing.<\/p>\n<p>Look at it this way.\u00c2\u00a0 Rykodisc was successful because it had CD manufacturing capabilities when almost no one did.\u00c2\u00a0 They released atmospheric CDs, almost anything with sound sold in the CD boom of the mid-eighties.<\/p>\n<p>Razor &amp; Tie.\u00c2\u00a0 Kidz Bop was and still is a license to print money.\u00c2\u00a0 Get regular kids, not pros, to sing the hits of the day&#8230;\u00c2\u00a0 Production costs, almost zilch. Market via TV and you&#8217;ve got a juggernaut.<\/p>\n<p>Isn&#8217;t it interesting that both of these companies were independents (and in the case of Razor &amp; Tie, still is).<\/p>\n<p>If you talk to the owners of Razor &amp; Tie, you&#8217;ll see that they&#8217;re risk-averse.\u00c2\u00a0 They won&#8217;t pay more, they&#8217;ll pay less.\u00c2\u00a0 They realize they&#8217;re giving you an opportunity.\u00c2\u00a0 But they specialize in creating their own opportunities.<\/p>\n<p>Everybody is watching the major labels.\u00c2\u00a0 Why?\u00c2\u00a0 Their success was built on controlling the distribution pipeline, but that monopoly&#8217;s been broken.\u00c2\u00a0 As for banking on radio, &quot;bank&quot; is the appropriate word.\u00c2\u00a0 They spend a fortune for very little in return.<\/p>\n<p>As for competing with Front Line?<\/p>\n<p>Irving doesn&#8217;t want to pay for developing acts, he wants established acts.\u00c2\u00a0 Meaning the new music field is almost completely open to entrepreneurs. Irving will claim otherwise, but find anybody over thirty in this business and first they look at the purse, they want to see how much money they can make quickly.\u00c2\u00a0 Hell, this is how the major labels got into trouble, by focusing on today, not tomorrow.<\/p>\n<p>AEG competes with Live Nation by paying a fortune for guaranteed sellers.\u00c2\u00a0 Phil Anschutz has got a deep pocket and he doesn&#8217;t have the struggling real estate and clubs of Live Nation.\u00c2\u00a0 AEG found a hole and is riding to success right through it.<\/p>\n<p>There are a lot of holes in the music business.\u00c2\u00a0 A hole is something you see that the mainstream does not.\u00c2\u00a0 If you want respect, if you want instant accolades, entrepreneurship is not the right road.\u00c2\u00a0 You&#8217;re betting against the mainstream.\u00c2\u00a0 But the mainstream is so calcified in the music world that the landscape is ripe for innovation.<\/p>\n<p>Michael Rapino says his club business stinks.\u00c2\u00a0 But maybe you can figure out a way to grow the club business, and leverage that.<\/p>\n<p>But your best avenue is to come up with hit music.\u00c2\u00a0 It&#8217;s the cheapest way.\u00c2\u00a0 And hooky, melodic songs sung by people with good voices never go out of style.\u00c2\u00a0 That&#8217;s the huge hole in the music business today.\u00c2\u00a0 Exploit it.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lou Pearlman saw a structural hole in the music business.\u00c2\u00a0 He foresaw a desire for cute, young boys singing melodic songs, dancing all the while. Was anybody producing anything similar?\u00c2\u00a0 Was melodic music dominating the charts? No, as the nineties wore on, beats were the key.\u00c2\u00a0 Rap was king.\u00c2\u00a0 If you wanted to compete in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2566","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-music-business"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/s96vPs-risk","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2566","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2566"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2566\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2568,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2566\/revisions\/2568"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2566"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2566"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2566"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}