{"id":2516,"date":"2010-01-04T12:15:02","date_gmt":"2010-01-04T20:15:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/?p=2516"},"modified":"2010-01-05T10:56:02","modified_gmt":"2010-01-05T18:56:02","slug":"predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/2010\/01\/04\/predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"

1. Ticketmaster and Live Nation Will Merge<\/span><\/p>\n

After public outcry lasting a week, people will move on to tracking the exploits of faux celebrities and the two companies will get down to trying to improve their bottom lines.\u00c2\u00a0 Which will depend not so much on fees, but the artists in the Front Line stable.<\/p>\n

Expect innovative merchandising and distribution deals.\u00c2\u00a0 The ability to stream concerts at home.\u00c2\u00a0 And a ton of data delivered to acts that will allow them to enhance their careers.<\/p>\n

Will this be enough to improve Live Nation’s anemic bottom line?\u00c2\u00a0 Will Ticketmaster be able to demonstrate growth? Unclear at this time.\u00c2\u00a0 In a business where the lion’s share of the revenue goes to the acts, it’s hard to grow.\u00c2\u00a0 But this is their challenge.<\/p>\n

And if you want to compete with the behemoth, you’ve got to deliver more.\u00c2\u00a0 And better.<\/p>\n

Independent concert promoters must do more than pay an advance and sell tickets.\u00c2\u00a0 They too will be forced to go high tech. Government conditions will allow independent ticketing agencies to flourish, but will they?\u00c2\u00a0 Or will we learn that Ticketmaster does a good job (which Live Nation’s ticketing debacle proved).\u00c2\u00a0 Or will it all come down to money.\u00c2\u00a0 How much new agencies will kick back and how little they’re willing to profit.<\/div>\n

2. Major Labels<\/span><\/p>\n

History!<\/p>\n

Well, that’s not exactly accurate.<\/p>\n

The behemoth will be TM\/LN.\u00c2\u00a0 What does the act need the major label for when they get can almost all these services from TM\/LN and retain the lion’s share of revenue from selling the music they do?<\/p>\n

Expect major label rosters to continue to shrink.\u00c2\u00a0 The majors will focus on winners.\u00c2\u00a0 Broad-based acts that garner radio and TV airplay.\u00c2\u00a0 However, these acts tend not to be winners in the live arena, so those slices of live revenue and merchandising in the 360 deals are worth little.\u00c2\u00a0 And, the more people you try to reach, the blander the product.\u00c2\u00a0 And this business has always thrived on cutting edge product.\u00c2\u00a0 Which the major label won’t sign, because it doesn’t know how to expose it and doesn’t see instant revenue.<\/p>\n

In sum, a bad recipe.<\/p>\n

Best to spin off new artist development to a third party and turn the major into a licensing house.\u00c2\u00a0 Thrive from the catalog.<\/div>\n

3. Independent Labels<\/span><\/p>\n

Don’t have 360 deals and don’t have cash.\u00c2\u00a0 If someone is telling you they’re staring an indie label, laugh.\u00c2\u00a0 Unless that someone is a manager and already has an interest in 360 degrees of revenue.<\/p>\n

Suddenly, you’re your own label.\u00c2\u00a0 You get all the money, but you’re doing all the work.\u00c2\u00a0 Which artists are historically poor at.<\/p>\n

So expect a roll-up of new acts.<\/p>\n

So far, TM\/LN is not in this business.\u00c2\u00a0 And Red Light has a lot of acts, but little traction.<\/p>\n

Some smart cookie, much younger than the players of today, will build a hit act.\u00c2\u00a0 The old-fashioned way, slowly, via a lot of touring, employing new technology to spread the word.\u00c2\u00a0 The success of this act will draw other new acts to this person.\u00c2\u00a0 And out of nowhere, suddenly, you’re going to have a brand new powerhouse.<\/p>\n

These will be acts the oldsters want no part of at first.\u00c2\u00a0 Because they don’t see enough revenue.\u00c2\u00a0 That’s how new players always get started.\u00c2\u00a0 By finding that which few are interested in and becoming the new mainstream.\u00c2\u00a0 These new acts will be music focused.\u00c2\u00a0 They won’t even think about Top Forty radio.\u00c2\u00a0 They’ll put the fans first.\u00c2\u00a0 But, they might just end up writing a ubiquitous track.\u00c2\u00a0 Which is built by the people, not the industry.<\/div>\n

4. Acts<\/span><\/p>\n

Will focus on their niche instead of world domination.\u00c2\u00a0 It will be about making a living more than earning a private jet lifestyle.\u00c2\u00a0 These new acts will not be bitching that music is free, they’ll be giving away their material, just hoping that you pay attention.<\/p>\n

But don’t be surprised when one of these new acts suddenly becomes ubiquitous.\u00c2\u00a0 Because despite the balkanization of the Web, it also allows a story to be universally known, overnight.<\/div>\n

5. Terrestrial Radio<\/span><\/p>\n

A dying medium for music.<\/p>\n

The stations are overleveraged, or already in bankruptcy, and they’re cutting back infrastructure and banking on twenty plus minutes of commercials per hour.\u00c2\u00a0 You’re supposed to double down, innovate in a crisis.\u00c2\u00a0 But terrestrial radio has done just the opposite.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s dying, and it will never come back.\u00c2\u00a0 In a world where no one experiences a commercial they don’t want to, do you really expect people to listen to what you tell them and be sold to every third minute?\u00c2\u00a0 You’re dreaming.<\/p>\n

Terrestrial radio will be about news and talk, those elements that are immediate.\u00c2\u00a0 Music’s been recorded previously, there’s no urgency to sit through the b.s. to hear what you want to.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n


6. Satellite Radio<\/span><\/p>\n

Has the benefit of being in automobiles, but a bad image.\u00c2\u00a0 Will stay at the twenty million subscriber level unless the model is changed and the service becomes free.\u00c2\u00a0 Don’t expect that to happen.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

7. Pandora<\/span><\/p>\n

A winner.\u00c2\u00a0 I find the service tedious, requiring way too much effort to hear what I want.\u00c2\u00a0 Slacker is superior.\u00c2\u00a0 But Pandora is winning.<\/p>\n

All because of Tim Westergren.\u00c2\u00a0 Who kept his company in the public eye.\u00c2\u00a0 Who aligned himself and his company with the public, not the government or the powers-that-be.\u00c2\u00a0 Yup, Tim kept rallying his troops, telling them to write to their representatives in Washington, to keep the service alive.\u00c2\u00a0 To the point where Pandora got name recognition.\u00c2\u00a0 To the point where it thrives not only on computers, but mobile phones.\u00c2\u00a0 And is supposedly on the verge of profitability.<\/p>\n

Learn Tim’s lesson.\u00c2\u00a0 Keep yourself in the public eye.\u00c2\u00a0 Don’t condemn your customers, rally them.<\/p>\n

And know that the best service does not necessarily win.<\/div>\n

8. Piracy<\/span><\/p>\n

Will no longer be the focus of discussion.\u00c2\u00a0 It will be about signing people up to subscription music services.\u00c2\u00a0 How long will this take?\u00c2\u00a0 The cards are held by the rights holders, until they play ball, innovation will be stifled.<\/p>\n

Ever notice that Google search is free?\u00c2\u00a0 That people clicking on ads support the service for everyone?\u00c2\u00a0 This is the essence of a freemium model.\u00c2\u00a0 Those paying for music subscriptions will subsidize those employing a free version, albeit with limits…i.e. advertising.<\/p>\n

Until you’ve got the free version, you’ve got no incentive.<\/p>\n

Once people have free streaming services on their desktops, they’ll pay to have them on their mobile devices.\u00c2\u00a0 Because first and foremost, all the data will synch, you’ll have convenience and you’ll save time.\u00c2\u00a0 Furthermore, you’ll get what you want, all your music on the go.\u00c2\u00a0 And you’ll pay for this.<\/p>\n

Makes no sense to try to accumulate a library of tracks.\u00c2\u00a0 Especially when the health of the business depends on experimentation, getting people to listen to new tracks.\u00c2\u00a0 This process must be easy.\u00c2\u00a0 Sure, hard drive space keeps getting cheaper.\u00c2\u00a0 And broadband connections get faster.\u00c2\u00a0 But it still takes time to steal and catalog all that music.\u00c2\u00a0 So, if someone does it for you, will you pay a small price?<\/p>\n

Of course.<\/p>\n

Starting with small.<\/p>\n

It’s about regrowing the revenue stream.\u00c2\u00a0 Not figuring out how we get back to the numbers of yore, but delivering a service people want for a price…and slowly raising that price, like every other service in America.\u00c2\u00a0 Get ’em hooked first, then make your money.<\/p>\n

Traditional labels may rail that music is being devalued.\u00c2\u00a0 But savvy artists will realize it’s about exposure.\u00c2\u00a0 And that there’s more ways to make money than recorded music.\u00c2\u00a0 Which, of course, should be paid for, but should not be seen as the main way to earn your bread.<\/div>\n

9. Music Video<\/span><\/p>\n

Will be what it originally was.\u00c2\u00a0 A way for fans and potential fans to experience the act, not a mini-movie.\u00c2\u00a0 Vevo, if it ever works right, will not experience exponential growth because new acts will not make videos like those of the eighties and nineties, and will not be aligned with Vevo anyway.<\/p>\n

Just like Vevo’s videos are hosted by YouTube, so are the wannabes’.\u00c2\u00a0 They can be embedded anywhere. Google\/YouTube gives all artists this power.\u00c2\u00a0 The majors\/Vevo have no monopoly on distribution.<\/div>\n


10. Retail<\/span><\/p>\n

Already it’s hard to find vast inventories of CDs.\u00c2\u00a0 This will only get worse.\u00c2\u00a0 Sure, diehard indie stores will survive, but Wal-Mart and Best Buy will continue to shrink floor space for music, down to essentially nothing.<\/p>\n

But the big story will be the decline of the iTunes Store.\u00c2\u00a0 Sale by track has always been death.\u00c2\u00a0 You need to get more than a buck a track from a customer to survive.\u00c2\u00a0 You need the higher price point of a subscription, that is still low, but so desirable that many people buy it.<\/div>\n

11. Music<\/span><\/p>\n

Will need to reclaim its rightful place as the most powerful art form.\u00c2\u00a0 This will be done by innovative acts, not aligned with a major.<\/p>\n

Today’s audience sees music as background, not foreground.\u00c2\u00a0 Aural grease in a club, not something you sit on your floor and listen to again and again as it fulfills your soul.<\/p>\n

In order to turn the ship around, we’ll need a plethora of artists who can sing, write and play.\u00c2\u00a0 The new technological tools allow you to fake it in the studio, but it’s much more difficult to fake it live.\u00c2\u00a0 You may point to lip-synching divas as contradiction to this point, I’ll say those are productions, whereas real musicians, playing live, sans effects, sans canned backup, touch the audience in a wholly different way, which bonds fans to them, which makes people want more.<\/p>\n

Yes, we’re going to experience a return to basics.\u00c2\u00a0 Don’t be distracted by the vast gobs of crap, whether it be the wannabes on MySpace or the no-talents on Top Forty radio.\u00c2\u00a0 The growth will come from those who pay their dues, who rely on their talent.<\/p>\n

None of the oldsters believe this.\u00c2\u00a0 They point to grosses of jokes.\u00c2\u00a0 They point to dollars as opposed to emotions.\u00c2\u00a0 And that’s how we’ve gotten to this godforsaken place.\u00c2\u00a0 Until you focus on the essence, the music, motivating people to come to the show based on the sound alone, you’re screwed.\u00c2\u00a0 The shows will start smaller.\u00c2\u00a0 They’ll be cheaper.\u00c2\u00a0 But the acts will be better.\u00c2\u00a0 Because when there’s less money involved, you don’t do it for the fame, but the love.<\/div>\n

12. Conclusion<\/span><\/p>\n

The music business is going through a wrenching transition.\u00c2\u00a0 Which will continue and may not solidify in its new form until the end of this new decade.\u00c2\u00a0 But, when the new destination is reached, most of the old players will be extinct and music will thrive.<\/p>\n

We need to separate the wheat from the chaff.\u00c2\u00a0 This will be done online.\u00c2\u00a0 Someone like Arianna Huffington will roll up tastemakers and distill information for those not willing to surf all day to find what they want.\u00c2\u00a0 Wannabes will be seen as that. Esoteric blogs will complain that they host the real music, that they are the true keepers of the flame, but the more we let today’s shoegazers’ voices be heard, the further we are from the destination.<\/p>\n

Sure, all genres can succeed.\u00c2\u00a0 But let’s not confuse the marginal with the mainstream.\u00c2\u00a0 And there’s nothing wrong with being mainstream, if that means more than your family, your friends and your college buddies like you.\u00c2\u00a0 You can get plenty far without compromising.\u00c2\u00a0 As long as you’re good.<\/p>\n

Sure, you can post your wannabe music on the aforementioned MySpace, but we’re going to ignore it.\u00c2\u00a0 The same way we ignore your second grade diorama, or your high school talent show.<\/p>\n

Chaos will fade, solidification will emerge.\u00c2\u00a0 A new breed of acts not beholden to the old business mind-set who can play, who have something to say, will dominate.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s coming.\u00c2\u00a0 Not as soon as we want it to, but it’s coming.\u00c2\u00a0\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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1. Ticketmaster and Live Nation Will Merge After public outcry lasting a week, people will move on to tracking the exploits of faux celebrities and the two companies will get down to trying to improve their bottom lines.\u00c2\u00a0 Which will depend not so much on fees, but the artists in the Front Line stable. Expect […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2516","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-music-business"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p96vPs-EA","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2516","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2516"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2516\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2520,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2516\/revisions\/2520"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2516"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2516"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2516"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}