{"id":2371,"date":"2009-11-06T08:30:19","date_gmt":"2009-11-06T16:30:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/?p=2371"},"modified":"2009-11-06T12:36:28","modified_gmt":"2009-11-06T20:36:28","slug":"streaming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/2009\/11\/06\/streaming\/","title":{"rendered":"Streaming"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ownership is for pussies.<\/p>\n

Oh, don’t e-mail, you same people who said we should save the album.\u00c2\u00a0 Notice what a few years do?\u00c2\u00a0 Radiohead says no more albums, Rush the same thing.\u00c2\u00a0 So, when your favorite acts give up on the long form format, don’t you too?<\/p>\n

I know you do.\u00c2\u00a0 Because you’ve stopped sending me hate mail in quantity.\u00c2\u00a0 If I write the album is history, I now only get a couple of e-mails complaining.\u00c2\u00a0 Whereas I used to get hundreds!<\/p>\n

How many years until when I say streaming is the answer that I get the same miniscule response?\u00c2\u00a0 How long until you nod your head and say I’m right?<\/p>\n

The major labels are confused.\u00c2\u00a0 They were for streaming a decade ago, then they were for ownership, and now they’re afraid somebody’s gonna come up with a streaming solution and become the new MTV and have all the power.\u00c2\u00a0 But maybe not all the profits, the majors are investors in Spotify.<\/p>\n

But it’s no longer solely about Spotify.<\/p>\n

It’s about MOG.<\/p>\n

It’s about Deezer.<\/p>\n

Yes, while you’re fiddling with apps on your iPhone, investors are spending millions to try to find a solution, to be the answer.<\/p>\n

I don’t think LaLa will be the answer, because I think by track sales are not only history, but the wrong way to go.\u00c2\u00a0 You don’t want people making a million cheap decisions, you want them to make one big one, ten bucks a month.\u00c2\u00a0 How are you going to do this?<\/p>\n

MOG is going to charge five bucks a month.\u00c2\u00a0 Which Napster presently does and has no traction.\u00c2\u00a0 You can’t get people to pay first, that’s twentieth century thinking.\u00c2\u00a0 You give them a taste now, and then get them to pay.\u00c2\u00a0 Which is why you can listen to so much for free online already.\u00c2\u00a0 If you’re not making your material available to be listened to online for free, at least in a streaming format, you’re managing your career with your arm behind your back.\u00c2\u00a0 We live in an attention economy.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s almost impossible to get people to spend time with you.\u00c2\u00a0 Make it easy for them!\u00c2\u00a0 Convince them!\u00c2\u00a0 Then get them to spend money.<\/p>\n

That’s the Spotify model.<\/p>\n

I just spent time with Daniel Ek in New York.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s fascinating sitting down with him, because he’s so damn smart!\u00c2\u00a0 So different from traditional record business, where it’s about winning through intimidation, throwing down enough dollars to emerge victorious in a bidding war.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s like the traditional music business is GM and the techies like Ek are Lexus.\u00c2\u00a0 A streamlined Japanese company that has solved the basic functionality issues and is adding usable components.<\/p>\n

While other sites are focusing on social features, Spotify is trying to be your hub.\u00c2\u00a0 The place to manage all your music.\u00c2\u00a0 They want to sync to your iPod, manage your playlists and have social networking components.\u00c2\u00a0 Your Facebook friends appear in the application, you can notify them of what you’re listening to, you can add their playlists instantly in your Spotify app.\u00c2\u00a0 All these things are interesting, but the killer is mobile.<\/p>\n

Let’s be clear.\u00c2\u00a0 The problem is the free app.\u00c2\u00a0 Rights holders are skeptical.\u00c2\u00a0 But if Spotify launches with a paid subscription model, it will be dead on arrival.\u00c2\u00a0 Why should it succeed when Rhapsody and Napster have not?\u00c2\u00a0 But if the rights holders can see that you entice first with free, we’re gonna have a revolution.\u00c2\u00a0 Because free on the desktop leads to paid mobile.<\/p>\n

That’s what Deezer’s research says.\u00c2\u00a0 Deezer, a Spotify competitor in France, found out that 80% of its uses were keen on getting mobile access. <\/p>\n

\n
Digital music startup Deezer debuts desktop client, premium offering<\/a><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n

And with Spotify, you’ve got to pay for mobile access.<\/p>\n

And here we have the nexus between the iPhone and Spotify.<\/p>\n

The app already exists.\u00c2\u00a0 I’ve used it.\u00c2\u00a0 I’ve got it on my iPod Touch.\u00c2\u00a0 Which limits me to wi-fi, but not really.\u00c2\u00a0 I can stream anything via wi-fi, but I can download 3,000 tracks to my iPod Touch, for playability anywhere!\u00c2\u00a0 The top of Mt. Everest if I can hike that far…<\/p>\n

And do you know any iPhone users?\u00c2\u00a0 They’re insufferable!\u00c2\u00a0 They think they’re gods!\u00c2\u00a0 That they’re better than the rest of us!\u00c2\u00a0 Do you think they’re not going to pay $10 a month for Spotify Premium?<\/p>\n

Of course they are!\u00c2\u00a0 Just so they can show it to you and demonstrate their superiority!\u00c2\u00a0 People are gobbling up the Spotify iPhone app where it’s legally available, no advertising, no nudging of desktop users is necessary.\u00c2\u00a0 Because people need it!<\/p>\n

The same way they need to own the new car the day it comes out.\u00c2\u00a0 The same way they line up at the Apple Store when the new iPhone comes out.<\/p>\n

It’s about the iPhone.<\/p>\n

The Palm Pre is already dead.\u00c2\u00a0 No apps.\u00c2\u00a0 And with no apps, you don’t have a user base.<\/p>\n

Will an Android phone compete?<\/p>\n

The Droid is coming out on Verizon tomorrow.\u00c2\u00a0 Both David Pogue and Walter Mossberg said it was pretty good.\u00c2\u00a0 After all, it operates on a far better network!\u00c2\u00a0 But there are only 12,000 apps compared to the 100,000 on the iPhone platform.\u00c2\u00a0 And you’re limited as to how many you can put on your phone.<\/p>\n

In other words, the iPhone has a giant head start.\u00c2\u00a0 The iPhone platform could be the new Microsoft Windows.\u00c2\u00a0 Dominant, irrelevant of whether anything better comes down the pike, sheer user adoption insures this.<\/p>\n

But Spotify is making an Android app anyway.\u00c2\u00a0 And a BlackBerry one too.<\/p>\n

But the key is the iPhone.<\/p>\n

Spotify is into charging.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s just a question of how you motivate people to pay!\u00c2\u00a0 They think it’s manageability.\u00c2\u00a0 I say look at Apple products, the remote comes with almost no buttons.\u00c2\u00a0 The consumer doesn’t want features, the consumer wants usability!\u00c2\u00a0 And right now, the Spotify app looks essentially like iTunes, works almost the same way, and iTunes is the standard.\u00c2\u00a0 In other words, there’s no learning curve for Spotify!<\/p>\n

So the rights holders can play along with Daniel Ek, or forestall the future for a few more years.<\/p>\n

I’m not saying Spotify has to win.\u00c2\u00a0 I’m just saying it’s the most advanced platform today.\u00c2\u00a0 History tells us one application wins in the Internet world, there’s one Amazon, one iTunes, but I don’t think there’s a problem if MOG succeeds, or Deezer too…\u00c2\u00a0 They’ve all got the same basic business concept.\u00c2\u00a0 For a little money, you get to hear everything!<\/p>\n

Which you can already do if you’re savvy online.<\/p>\n

But how savvy are you on your mobile handset?\u00c2\u00a0 Are you using BitTorrent on your smartphone?\u00c2\u00a0 Managing playlists?\u00c2\u00a0 It’s easier to pay someone else to do this for you.<\/p>\n

So, mobile streaming with the ability to store tracks when out of cell range is the killer app.<\/p>\n

Do you get this?\u00c2\u00a0 It’s Google!\u00c2\u00a0 We are now here!\u00c2\u00a0 It’s just a matter of whether the labels and publishers agree to play ball!<\/p>\n

They already have in the U.K. and northern Europe.<\/p>\n

And once they do here, we’ve got a whole new ball game.<\/p>\n

People will be paying for music.\u00c2\u00a0 Maybe not everybody at first, but so many, there’s going to be a whopping revenue stream.<\/p>\n

And the focus will no longer be about enticing people to pay.\u00c2\u00a0 It will be about getting their attention, getting them to stream!\u00c2\u00a0 In other words, in the old days, if a person bought something and didn’t play it, the industry didn’t care, they still thought it was a hit.\u00c2\u00a0 Now, it’s going to be about how many actual plays you get!\u00c2\u00a0 That will determine your popularity!\u00c2\u00a0 And ultimately, your financial success.\u00c2\u00a0 Not only will you be paid by the streaming company, you’ll get fringe benefits, like live and merch revenues.<\/p>\n

Let me restate.<\/p>\n

The technology is here.<\/p>\n

First issue is rights.\u00c2\u00a0 They have to be granted.<\/p>\n

Second, the initial online service must have a free version.\u00c2\u00a0 Maybe with ads, but the key is to get people to check it out.\u00c2\u00a0 Believe me, they’ll spread the word!\u00c2\u00a0 Nobody ever says a bad word about Spotify, they use it and rave about it to all their friends!<\/p>\n

Third, convert users to the pay model.\u00c2\u00a0 Sure, you want people to pay for desktop usage.\u00c2\u00a0 But you’ve got to jump ahead, go in through the mobile door.\u00c2\u00a0 Everybody’s got a cell phone.\u00c2\u00a0 Remember the year 2000, when everybody finally bought one?\u00c2\u00a0 Kind of like 1995, when everybody bought a computer to play on AOL?\u00c2\u00a0 2010 could be the year of the mobile music app.\u00c2\u00a0 The product is just that enticing.\u00c2\u00a0 No one complained about the price of cell phones in 2000 or computers in 1995.\u00c2\u00a0 No one even complained about the twenty-odd dollar AOL subscription fee.\u00c2\u00a0 They wanted to be involved!<\/p>\n

People want to be involved with online music streaming.\u00c2\u00a0 They just don’t know it yet.\u00c2\u00a0 Because they haven’t tried it.\u00c2\u00a0 But once they do!<\/p>\n

This is not Pandora, listening to what you don’t want to get to the shit you do.<\/p>\n

This is not iTunes, same prices as CDs, just buying the tracks one at a time.<\/p>\n

This is a newfangled music model!\u00c2\u00a0 Not a newfangled model…\u00c2\u00a0 Hell, not only did AOL make you pay by the month, your ISP makes you do so now too!\u00c2\u00a0 And you pay by the month for cell service!\u00c2\u00a0 And for those who pay as they go, streaming music apps will be an incentive for them to upgrade to post-paid, the model carriers prefer!<\/p>\n

This is a win\/win\/win.\u00c2\u00a0 A win for right holders, retailers and users.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s a no-brainer.<\/p>\n

Argue with me.\u00c2\u00a0 Tell me I’m wrong.\u00c2\u00a0 I’m not listening.<\/p>\n

I’ve seen the future.\u00c2\u00a0 And it’s not being purveyed by Doug Morris, not even Jimmy Iovine.\u00c2\u00a0 But by techies who can run intellectual circles around them who are not in it to rip anybody off, but to make tons of money for both themselves and the rights holders.<\/p>\n

It’s a new age.<\/p>\n

Get ready.<\/p>\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ownership is for pussies. Oh, don’t e-mail, you same people who said we should save the album.\u00c2\u00a0 Notice what a few years do?\u00c2\u00a0 Radiohead says no more albums, Rush the same thing.\u00c2\u00a0 So, when your favorite acts give up on the long form format, don’t you too? I know you do.\u00c2\u00a0 Because you’ve stopped sending […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[2,5,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2371","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-music-business","category-online","category-technology"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p96vPs-Cf","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2371","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2371"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2371\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2373,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2371\/revisions\/2373"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2371"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2371"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2371"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}