{"id":158,"date":"2005-09-20T09:28:32","date_gmt":"2005-09-20T16:28:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/archives\/2005\/09\/20\/the-future-2\/"},"modified":"2005-09-20T09:33:18","modified_gmt":"2005-09-20T16:33:18","slug":"the-future-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/2005\/09\/20\/the-future-2\/","title":{"rendered":"The Future"},"content":{"rendered":"

Did you read that article about EMI in "Newsweek"?
(http:\/\/msnbc.msn.com\/id\/9378593\/site\/newsweek\/<\/a>)\u00c2\u00a0 WHAT A CROCK OF SHIT!<\/p>\n

This is what’s wrong with America.\u00c2\u00a0 (Well, this is the International Edition,
but who gives a fuck.)\u00c2\u00a0 There’s no such thing as a reporter anymore.\u00c2\u00a0 There
are just writers, who jot down what publicity people tell them.\u00c2\u00a0 Maybe adding
in just a couple of faux insights to show independent thought.\u00c2\u00a0 Nobody wants to
do the hard work anymore.\u00c2\u00a0 Nobody wants to spend the time to get to KNOW
something before they write about it.\u00c2\u00a0 God, it’s like watching curling.\u00c2\u00a0 The CEO
throws a stone and his flacks sweep furiously, landing the stone right in the
writer’s lap.<\/p>\n

The major labels are fucked.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s just that simple.\u00c2\u00a0 They’re suing
individuals, P2P sites, yet P2P usage keeps going UP!\u00c2\u00a0 There’s a revolution going on, a veritable WAR, and these fucking assholes can’t get out of their own way.\u00c2\u00a0
BIG THINKERS?\u00c2\u00a0 Their focus is so small that they couldn’t see Apple Computer
would dominate the online music world.\u00c2\u00a0 BECAUSE THEY KNOW NOTHING ABOUT
COMPUTERS!\u00c2\u00a0 They don’t know it’s about ease of use, seamless solutions, SOFTWARE!\u00c2\u00a0 In their world you just polish a turd and throw it into a store.\u00c2\u00a0 Do this in the tech world and it’s DEATH!\u00c2\u00a0 Not that the iTunes Music Store, which these
backward-looking execs are fuming about, is even RELEVANT!\u00c2\u00a0 Selling low quality
files for the same price as tracks on CDs, WANTING TO SELL THEM FOR MORE, this is
ECONOMIC DEATH!\u00c2\u00a0 You’ve got to sell the bundle.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s ALL ABOUT THE ALBUM!\u00c2\u00a0
People have GOT to buy a BUNCH of tracks.\u00c2\u00a0 Sell them ones and twos and you’re
going to go out of business.<\/p>\n

Still, the iTunes Music Store is relevant for one reason.\u00c2\u00a0 The indies and the
majors are on the same footing.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s a level playing field.\u00c2\u00a0 THIS IS NOT
TRADITIONAL RETAIL!\u00c2\u00a0 The indie on iTunes gets paid just as well as the major
(finally!)\u00c2\u00a0 And he knows he WILL get paid!\u00c2\u00a0 Whereas an indie with a hit in
physical retail won’t get paid unless he’s got ANOTHER hit.<\/p>\n

And here we have reality.\u00c2\u00a0 All those jerks who tell you content is king…\u00c2\u00a0
DISTRIBUTION IS KING!\u00c2\u00a0 That’s how the majors got their near-monopoly.\u00c2\u00a0 And that
monopoly is now threatened by digital distribution.\u00c2\u00a0 And they’re not
addressing this problem AT ALL!\u00c2\u00a0 Actually, if they know it, and they must, otherwise
they wouldn’t have been futilely suing P2P services all these years, they
CERTAINLY don’t want to let writers know about it.\u00c2\u00a0 Because the jig is up.<\/p>\n

In Monday’s "New York Times" they published the ratings for the best season
of family sitcoms.<\/p>\n

Number one, as you might predict, was "All In The Family".\u00c2\u00a0 Which garnered a
rating of 34.0.\u00c2\u00a0 Essentially the equivalent of thirty four million people
watching each episode.<\/p>\n

Next came "Laverne & Shirley".\u00c2\u00a0 Which had a 31.6.<\/p>\n

Then came "Roseanne".\u00c2\u00a0 With a 23.4.<\/p>\n

Now you’re probably saying "All In The Family" was BETTER!\u00c2\u00a0 And you might be
right.\u00c2\u00a0 I would advocate strongly, however, that "Roseanne" was superior to
"Laverne & Shirley".\u00c2\u00a0 Actually, "Laverne & Shirley" was SHITTY!\u00c2\u00a0 So, why did so
many people WATCH IT?<\/p>\n

Because there was almost nothing else on.<\/p>\n

The ratings champ, "All In The Family", its best season was 71-72.\u00c2\u00a0 When the
only people who had cable lived in the HINTERLANDS and employed it not to
watch movies on HBO, but to get any reception AT ALL!<\/p>\n

By time "Laverne & Shirley" peaked in 77-78, some households now had cable.\u00c2\u00a0
Maybe they only possessed 20-40 channels, but they had OPTIONS!<\/p>\n

And, when "Roseanne" peaked in 89-90…god, cable was EVERYWHERE!\u00c2\u00a0 Systems
had up to seventy channels.\u00c2\u00a0 Didn’t Bruce Springsteen release a song back then
that claimed there were 57 channels and there was nothing on?<\/p>\n

Well, that was his opinion.\u00c2\u00a0 But, it turns out that MANY people thought there
WAS something on.\u00c2\u00a0 Because they stopped watching network TV.<\/p>\n

But what about today??<\/p>\n

Well, for the September 5-11 week, the top rated network program was the
football game, the Raiders versus the Patriots.\u00c2\u00a0 It pulled an 11.7!!!<\/p>\n

"CSI", that big hit show?\u00c2\u00a0 It had an 8.8.<\/p>\n

The number 10 network show, a college football game between Miami and Florida
State?\u00c2\u00a0 That pulled a 6.5!<\/p>\n

God, if shows pulled these numbers back in the seventies they’d be on the
verge of CANCELLATION!<\/p>\n

Where did all the viewers go?<\/p>\n

CABLE!<\/p>\n

Many cable systems now have 300 channels.\u00c2\u00a0 A rotten one has got 100.\u00c2\u00a0
Stunningly, the number one cable show beat the number 10 network show.\u00c2\u00a0 The Colts\/Ravens football game on ESPN pulled a 7.4.\u00c2\u00a0 REAL WORLD, tied for eighth with two other programs, well the same program with two different episodes, "The
O’Reilly Report", it pulled a 2.9!<\/p>\n

How much do you think it cost to produce the "O’Reilly Report"?\u00c2\u00a0 Compared to
"All In The Family"?\u00c2\u00a0 Let’s see…you pay Bill O’Reilly and then you erect a
two-dimensional set you use EVERY NIGHT!\u00c2\u00a0 Think of the PROFIT!<\/p>\n

Now, Fox owns both the Fox Network and Fox News.\u00c2\u00a0 Give the company credit for
moving into cable.\u00c2\u00a0 Protecting its interests\/market share.\u00c2\u00a0 Hell, at this
point all the networks have cable cousins.\u00c2\u00a0 Sometimes, the cable companies OWN
the network…like Viacom with CBS.\u00c2\u00a0 NOW you know why Universal went into the
indie business with Fontana.\u00c2\u00a0 Why Sony BMG is killing RED I have no idea.\u00c2\u00a0
Warner is doing SOMETHING, but it seems to be about growing hit acts.\u00c2\u00a0 THAT’S NOT
THE FORMULA!\u00c2\u00a0 All those cable channels!\u00c2\u00a0 The other 200+.\u00c2\u00a0 They’re not trying to
pull a 20, they’re making programming for a market.\u00c2\u00a0 NARROWCASTING!\u00c2\u00a0 Making
cheap shows for a target audience.<\/p>\n

But, there are a limited number of cable channels.\u00c2\u00a0 The systems can only beam
so many channels to customers.\u00c2\u00a0 But there’s no limit to the number of records
you can sell at one time.\u00c2\u00a0 Furthermore, producing music is CHEAP!\u00c2\u00a0 Oh, it
might not be cheap to make and market a record that sells five million copies.\u00c2\u00a0
But, one can see from the cable example above, THAT’S NOT THE GOAL!<\/p>\n

Yes, the major labels are about to be pecked to death by ducks.\u00c2\u00a0 Once digital
distribution is the norm, their market share, like that of the television
networks, is going to SHRINK!\u00c2\u00a0 And, IT’S NEVER GOING TO RECOVER!<\/p>\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Did you read that article about EMI in "Newsweek"? (http:\/\/msnbc.msn.com\/id\/9378593\/site\/newsweek\/)\u00c2\u00a0 WHAT A CROCK OF SHIT! This is what’s wrong with America.\u00c2\u00a0 (Well, this is the International Edition, but who gives a fuck.)\u00c2\u00a0 There’s no such thing as a reporter anymore.\u00c2\u00a0 There are just writers, who jot down what publicity people tell them.\u00c2\u00a0 Maybe adding in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-158","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-music-business"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p96vPs-2y","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/158","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=158"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/158\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=158"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=158"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=158"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}