{"id":121,"date":"2005-08-22T08:59:21","date_gmt":"2005-08-22T15:59:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/archives\/2005\/08\/22\/the-future\/"},"modified":"2005-08-22T09:07:03","modified_gmt":"2005-08-22T16:07:03","slug":"the-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/2005\/08\/22\/the-future\/","title":{"rendered":"The Future"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>What if it&#8217;s over.\u00c2\u00a0 What if everything this business was built upon, <br \/>everything we know, is disappearing.<\/p>\n<p>Well, this business WAS built upon music.\u00c2\u00a0 But that was a long time ago.\u00c2\u00a0 <br \/>That was before everybody got greedy.\u00c2\u00a0 Before it was demonstrated how much MONEY there was in the music business.<\/p>\n<p>Oh, there&#8217;s always been a music business.\u00c2\u00a0 Back to the days when cavemen were <br \/>banging on rocks and people sat around and listened.\u00c2\u00a0 But the sixties were <br \/>different.\u00c2\u00a0 We had recorded music, and a large ready audience, i.e. baby <br \/>boomers, with the money and wherewithal to buy it.<\/p>\n<p>Before the sixties the single was the dominant format.\u00c2\u00a0 First 78s, then 45s.\u00c2\u00a0 <br \/>You can&#8217;t make much money selling singles.\u00c2\u00a0 Just ask the labels how <br \/>profitable iTunes is.\u00c2\u00a0 And, there wasn&#8217;t much money.\u00c2\u00a0 There was a depression.<br \/>And then a war.\u00c2\u00a0 But when rock and roll hit, when the baby boomers came of age, when the Beatles turned it into an album format, purveyors started COINING DOUGH!<\/p>\n<p>You HAD to have the Beatle album.<\/p>\n<p>And the Beatles and the San Francisco sound begat concert venues.\u00c2\u00a0 And press <br \/>to cover the scene.\u00c2\u00a0 And suddenly, music was the driver, the hippest art form <br \/>extant.<\/p>\n<p>And the MONEY!<\/p>\n<p>First there were the records.\u00c2\u00a0 Then, Led Zeppelin changed the live deal.\u00c2\u00a0 To <br \/>90\/10.\u00c2\u00a0 And everybody wanted to SEE Led Zeppelin.\u00c2\u00a0 There was no venue too big, <br \/>they could sell every seat of a stadium.<\/p>\n<p>And there was radio to grease the way.\u00c2\u00a0 To turn people on to new bands.<\/p>\n<p>But then FM radio became formatted.\u00c2\u00a0 The acts became corporate.\u00c2\u00a0 The whole <br \/>thing tanked.\u00c2\u00a0 But MTV revived it.<\/p>\n<p>Suddenly, there was a new way to expose product.\u00c2\u00a0 And this new exposure sold <br \/>TONS of albums.\u00c2\u00a0 Killed acts as quickly as it made them, but the public was <br \/>hooked, they had to watch, MTV was the antithesis of corporate television.<\/p>\n<p>Then came the baby boomlet.\u00c2\u00a0 The CHILDREN of the baby boomers.\u00c2\u00a0 Whose parents <br \/>didn&#8217;t believe in denying them.\u00c2\u00a0 Lou Pearlman developed a whole new breed of <br \/>act to appeal to this group, and the Backstreet Boys and &#8216;N Sync sold DIAMOND!\u00c2\u00a0Over ten million albums per record.<\/p>\n<p>Then it died.<\/p>\n<p>Yup, died.<\/p>\n<p>The labels will tell you it&#8217;s file-trading.\u00c2\u00a0 That&#8217;s why we have no more <br \/>diamond albums.<\/p>\n<p>Concert promoters blame the acts, they&#8217;re too greedy.<\/p>\n<p>And if you listen to the public, everybody&#8217;s too greedy and the acts suck.<\/p>\n<p>But, is any of this TRUE???<\/p>\n<p>Well, all of it&#8217;s true to a degree, but are these the factors that are ailing <br \/>the music business or are their OTHER, unforeseen, unexplored reasons?<\/p>\n<p>There&#8217;s no center anymore.\u00c2\u00a0 No town square.\u00c2\u00a0 No marketplace that everybody <br \/>passes through.\u00c2\u00a0 We&#8217;re no longer one cohesive culture.\u00c2\u00a0 And therefore, you can&#8217;t <br \/>find ten million people to buy one album.\u00c2\u00a0 It&#8217;s not like the sixties, when <br \/>you heard everything.\u00c2\u00a0 Mariah Carey had the biggest track of the summer?\u00c2\u00a0 I bet <br \/>half of America never heard it.\u00c2\u00a0 Hell, most Americans are not familiar with <br \/>the Top Forty chart.\u00c2\u00a0 It&#8217;s meaningless to them.\u00c2\u00a0 They don&#8217;t listen to the radio <br \/>stations and they don&#8217;t like the urban-oriented sound.<\/p>\n<p>The acts that sell today, to the degree they DO sell, are overexposed.\u00c2\u00a0 <br \/>That&#8217;s what the major label&#8217;s business is.\u00c2\u00a0 That&#8217;s why you sign with a major rather <br \/>than an indie.\u00c2\u00a0 They&#8217;ll get you on the radio, MTV\/VH1\/Fuse, &quot;The Today Show&quot;, <br \/>maybe even &quot;20\/20&quot;, in &quot;Us&quot;, &quot;People&quot;, singing the national anthem at <br \/>sporting events, in movies, at least your songs.\u00c2\u00a0 Because if you don&#8217;t do ALL of the <br \/>above, not enough people are aware of your product, the major label can&#8217;t sell <br \/>enough copies to recoup its investment.<\/p>\n<p>But it gets worse.\u00c2\u00a0 In order to get everybody to buy in, in order to get all <br \/>the exposing media involved, the music has to be palatable.\u00c2\u00a0 Must be bland and <br \/>inoffensive.\u00c2\u00a0 Otherwise, it&#8217;s a tune-out, and ratings will decline.\u00c2\u00a0 UNLESS, <br \/>OF COURSE, it&#8217;s the edge, the danger that you&#8217;re truly selling.\u00c2\u00a0 It&#8217;s not like <br \/>the days of the Rolling Stones, words are not enough, how many times was <br \/>50 Cent shot?<\/p>\n<p>But it&#8217;s not only the labels that are in trouble.\u00c2\u00a0 The live business is never <br \/>going to be the same.\u00c2\u00a0 It&#8217;s got nothing to do with sheds or arenas.\u00c2\u00a0 Nothing <br \/>to do with the quality of food.\u00c2\u00a0 It&#8217;s just that not enough people know about <br \/>the touring acts that you can SELL 20,000 tickets a night.<\/p>\n<p>Classic rock acts.\u00c2\u00a0 They&#8217;re already ingrained in the public consciousness.<\/p>\n<p>The Dave Matthews Band?\u00c2\u00a0 Truly, the last one to squeak in.\u00c2\u00a0 When MTV still <br \/>played music, broke bands.\u00c2\u00a0 THEY can make the numbers.\u00c2\u00a0 And then there&#8217;s <br \/>Coldplay&#8230;\u00c2\u00a0 One has to ask, is Coldplay selling out because it&#8217;s such fantastic <br \/>music or because people need a rallying point?\u00c2\u00a0 To feel SOME connection to the <br \/>mainstream?<\/p>\n<p>But Coldplay is irrelevant.\u00c2\u00a0 Let&#8217;s just say there will be a COUPLE of new <br \/>bands that will break through and sell tickets for a year or two (if you think <br \/>Coldplay&#8217;s gonna be doing 20,000 a night three years from now, you&#8217;re dreaming, <br \/>or else they&#8217;re going to make a quantum leap in recorded material, since &quot;X&amp;Y&quot; <br \/>is so bland, so repetitive, so WEAK as to be laughable to anybody truly <br \/>listening).<\/p>\n<p>This business was built upon a NUMBER of acts selling out arenas.\u00c2\u00a0 Where are <br \/>those acts coming from?<\/p>\n<p>There&#8217;s no mainstream outlet exposing these acts, IRRELEVANT of how good the <br \/>material is.<\/p>\n<p>MTV plays almost no music.\u00c2\u00a0 Remember when you HAD to get a ticket to the <br \/>VMAs?\u00c2\u00a0 Could there be LESS buzz about next week&#8217;s show?<\/p>\n<p>Radio is run by advertising men, not music lovers.<\/p>\n<p>But music lovers still exist.\u00c2\u00a0 They haunt the Web.<\/p>\n<p>But the Web is narrowcasting.<\/p>\n<p>Music ain&#8217;t gonna die.\u00c2\u00a0 It&#8217;s just that each album is going to sell fewer <br \/>copies and each concert is going to have fewer attendees.\u00c2\u00a0 You&#8217;ll go to a club to <br \/>see a band that almost no one has ever heard of.\u00c2\u00a0 Just you and some other <br \/>people on MySpace.\u00c2\u00a0 It will be enough to sell a couple of hundred tickets in <br \/>Cleveland, but it won&#8217;t ever sell 20,000 a night.\u00c2\u00a0 Unless, of course, the act signs <br \/>to the major label, which will dumb down the music, sell it everywhere and <br \/>kill it.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s a funny era.\u00c2\u00a0 More people are making music than ever before.\u00c2\u00a0 More music <br \/>is AVAILABLE than ever before.\u00c2\u00a0 There are so many genres that even an expert <br \/>can&#8217;t keep them all straight.\u00c2\u00a0 But it&#8217;s bad for the old guard.\u00c2\u00a0 The old guard <br \/>is based on tonnage of individual acts.\u00c2\u00a0 Those days are through.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What if it&#8217;s over.\u00c2\u00a0 What if everything this business was built upon, everything we know, is disappearing. Well, this business WAS built upon music.\u00c2\u00a0 But that was a long time ago.\u00c2\u00a0 That was before everybody got greedy.\u00c2\u00a0 Before it was demonstrated how much MONEY there was in the music business. Oh, there&#8217;s always been a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-121","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-music-business"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p96vPs-1X","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=121"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=121"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=121"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=121"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}