I just got a call from a paper in Glasgow, wanting to interview me about the future of the music industry.\u00c2\u00a0 The writer proffered the term "access".\u00c2\u00a0 The new buzzword spoken by Paul McGuinness.\u00c2\u00a0 Isn’t that what people wanted?<\/p>\n
NO!!<\/p>\n
I find it hard to believe, nine years into this online music revolution, that industryites are still trying to put the consumer in a box.\u00c2\u00a0 The way you make money isn’t telling the consumer what he SHOULD want, but giving him what he DOES want!<\/p>\n
At some point in the future will music be a service, with delivery on demand, with most people owning nothing?\u00c2\u00a0 YUP!\u00c2\u00a0 But the question is, WHEN IS THAT FUTURE?<\/p>\n
It’s not tomorrow.\u00c2\u00a0 I’d say it’s at least five to ten years off.\u00c2\u00a0 So can Rick Rubin and the other poobahs stop prognosticating and come back to Earth?<\/p>\n
Have you been following the squabble with the iTunes movie rental service?\u00c2\u00a0 People are complaining, because they’re frustrated they can’t watch movies on THEIR iPods.\u00c2\u00a0 If they read the fine print, they’ll find out you’ve got to have a Classic or a new Nano (or an iPhone or iPod Touch).\u00c2\u00a0 What’s the percentage of the iPod population that fits this requirement?\u00c2\u00a0 DE MINIMIS!\u00c2\u00a0 You had to have purchased your iPod essentially in the last year.\u00c2\u00a0 So, if you were even a LATE early adopter, you’re shit out of luck, unless you buy a new device.\u00c2\u00a0 So, even if Steve Jobs announces a wireless rental service, as Paul McGuinness believes, it CAN’T be instantly successful, because most people don’t have the hardware, and aren’t about to pop for it.\u00c2\u00a0 Look at it this way, how many years has HD TV been available?\u00c2\u00a0 Does everybody have it?\u00c2\u00a0 Has everybody gone out and purchased a new set?\u00c2\u00a0 And, you can get the HD signal FOR FREE, over the airwaves (you can choose to pay for dish or cable, but that’s your prerogative).\u00c2\u00a0 Everybody’s going to rush out and buy a new iPod and start spending ten bucks a month?\u00c2\u00a0 Not gonna happen.\u00c2\u00a0 Steve’s got to proffer the new option, and then it will take years for it to gain traction.\u00c2\u00a0 As for the other players, have you used the Rhapsody-compliant Sansa?\u00c2\u00a0 The greatest advertisement for the iPod ever!\u00c2\u00a0 And Rhapsody’s software is not extremely intuitive.\u00c2\u00a0 And you wonder why subscription hasn’t taken off.<\/p>\n
Let’s not call it subscription, let’s call it rental.<\/p>\n
Do you think all the boomers, still buying CDs, are about to rent music?<\/p>\n
And, don’t forget that the movie studios prospered when Warren Lieberfarb turned the DVD market into one of sale, as opposed to the VHS rental model.\u00c2\u00a0 Turns out the public wanted to buy and the studios made more money.<\/p>\n
We live in an ownership society.\u00c2\u00a0 Forever?\u00c2\u00a0 I don’t think so.\u00c2\u00a0 But for now.<\/p>\n
As for future models, I believe bundling access\/ownership with ISP fee is a good idea.\u00c2\u00a0 But I don’t believe McGuinness is going to get his way by demonizing the ISP, by telling them they’re liable.\u00c2\u00a0 Sure, this jawboning might work, but history is not on his side.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s about the BUSINESS PROPOSITION!\u00c2\u00a0 It’s about the industry coming together and THEN going to the ISP and saying…for an extra fee of $1-$10 a month, people can download whatever they want P2P LEGALLY!\u00c2\u00a0 You don’t get a date by insulting a girl’s looks and telling her she’s a whore, you sidle up to her, YOU’RE NICE!<\/p>\n
And do you think you’re going to get what you want by calling technologists west coast hippys?\u00c2\u00a0 This insult technique may work in horse-trading at the radio station, even backstage, but the revenues of these tech companies dwarf those of the music industry.\u00c2\u00a0 The key is to come to the table as an educated businessman, not as a bully!<\/p>\n
Let’s stop pointing fingers.\u00c2\u00a0 Let’s stop saying who’s liable.\u00c2\u00a0 Let’s stop talking about thievery.\u00c2\u00a0 Let’s make both distributors and customers AN OFFER!<\/p>\n
Not once has a P2P thief had the option to pay.\u00c2\u00a0 NOT ONCE!\u00c2\u00a0 The labels won’t authorize such a deal, allowing people to pay for what they desire.\u00c2\u00a0 Because Mr. McGuinness and the labels don’t want them to acquire the music that way, with that business model.\u00c2\u00a0 Music must cost a dollar a track, there’s history here, publishing fees…\u00c2\u00a0 FUCK HISTORY!\u00c2\u00a0 The customer doesn’t care about history.\u00c2\u00a0 The customer does care about music though, and liability.\u00c2\u00a0 I’d pay ten bucks a month to avoid the long arm of the law, for a trading license.\u00c2\u00a0 So many others would too…\u00c2\u00a0 If only they were given the chance!<\/p>\n
We want to own our music.\u00c2\u00a0 When I hear a good song on satellite radio, my turn-on medium of choice, I don’t fire up Rhapsody to listen, I go to P2P to steal, to own.\u00c2\u00a0 Sometimes the track sounds as good at home, sometimes it doesn’t.\u00c2\u00a0 Don’t tell me to pay a buck for it, because then I can’t experience enough.\u00c2\u00a0 The new model is the availability of EVERYTHING!<\/p>\n
Oh, that’s right.\u00c2\u00a0 You don’t approve of that model.\u00c2\u00a0 You want us to stay in 1977…\u00c2\u00a0 Well, do you think Led Zeppelin would be able to sell out every gig when they finally hit the road if it weren’t for file-trading?\u00c2\u00a0 I’m not saying these transactions should be free, but that there are benefits to the free flow of information.<\/p>\n
But Mr. McGuinness and his cohorts want to deny all this.\u00c2\u00a0 They either want to look to the past, or the distant future.\u00c2\u00a0 When it’s necessary to play in the present.\u00c2\u00a0 The Yankees don’t wait for ten years for their 12 year old phenom prospect to grow up, they sign the best available talent NOW!<\/p>\n
Authorize what the public is doing now.<\/p>\n
Criminalizing, demonizing ANYBODY is not the path to the future.<\/p>\n
And it doesn’t work anyway.\u00c2\u00a0 Can the ISP stop me from IM’ing a track?\u00c2\u00a0 Can it stop me from trading USB sticks?\u00c2\u00a0 STOP WITH THE STOP!\u00c2\u00a0 Say YES instead of NO!\u00c2\u00a0 It’s a lot less complicated if you just set your mind free, let go of the old precepts and accept REALITY!<\/p>\n
The reality is many more people are going to own much more music, and this is GOOD FOR THE BUSINESS!\u00c2\u00a0 They’ll pay less for each track, which for the foreseeable future, the next half decade at least, they’ll want to own.\u00c2\u00a0 MONETIZE THIS BEHAVIOR!<\/p>\n
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