{"id":1030,"date":"2007-11-30T20:44:14","date_gmt":"2007-12-01T04:44:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/archives\/2007\/11\/30\/where-were-at\/"},"modified":"2007-11-30T20:44:14","modified_gmt":"2007-12-01T04:44:14","slug":"where-were-at","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/2007\/11\/30\/where-were-at\/","title":{"rendered":"Where We’re At"},"content":{"rendered":"

Clive Davis doesn’t break records, he breaks acts.<\/p>\n

In the latest issue of "Rolling Stone", Rick Rubin gushes about his Sonos with Rhapsody system.\u00c2\u00a0 Hate to tell you Rick, but you’re late to the game.\u00c2\u00a0 I’ve had one for years.\u00c2\u00a0 As have many rich techies.\u00c2\u00a0 But this does not mean this equipment and service is about to break through to the masses.<\/p>\n

Sonos throws your music to all the stereo systems in your house.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s pretty amazing, you use a hand-held controller that allows you to manage what’s playing in multiple rooms from anywhere in wireless range.\u00c2\u00a0 But this assumes you’ve got multiple stereo systems.\u00c2\u00a0 How many people have multiple stereo systems in their homes today?\u00c2\u00a0 I’d venture that hardly anybody has one stereo system in their house.\u00c2\u00a0 Unless you’re counting the speakers attached to their computer.\u00c2\u00a0 So Sonos is a niche product.<\/p>\n

Rhapsody gives you access to just about everything legally available in the music world.\u00c2\u00a0 Its shortcomings in catalog only matter to those who are going to steal and never pay anyway.\u00c2\u00a0 Its under twenty dollar a month cost is a bargain to the same people with stereo systems who are thrilled about Sonos.\u00c2\u00a0 But those less wealthy are frightened off by the caveat…\u00c2\u00a0 That if you don’t pay, you lose everything you’ve got.\u00c2\u00a0 Music as a service.\u00c2\u00a0 Sounds good if you’re a rich record executive, but two hundred dollars a year is more than most people presently pay for music.\u00c2\u00a0 And at least they get to keep what they purchase.<\/p>\n

But more interesting to me is the premise that rental subscription services will save the major labels.\u00c2\u00a0 That their only problem is theft.\u00c2\u00a0 This assumes that their business model is sound, as long as people pay for music.\u00c2\u00a0 But this is patently untrue.\u00c2\u00a0 The major labels of today resemble not a whit the record companies of the fifties, never mind the seventies.\u00c2\u00a0 The labels of yore were counting on singles and doubles, they were thrilled with the occasional home run.\u00c2\u00a0 Today’s labels are predicated on the grand slam.\u00c2\u00a0 Homers are the least they’ll settle for.\u00c2\u00a0 If you’re not going platinum, they don’t want you.\u00c2\u00a0 But how many acts can go platinum anymore?<\/p>\n

Did you read the David Brooks column?\u00c2\u00a0 The one revolving around Little Steven?<\/p>\n

\n

The Segmented Society<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

If you haven’t, and I’d wager that most haven’t, based on my discussions recently, that proves the point.\u00c2\u00a0 This guy is writing in the "New York Times", he’s a known quantity, and he’s got very little traction.\u00c2\u00a0 He’s preaching to the converted.\u00c2\u00a0 And it’s taken a long time to convert the public.\u00c2\u00a0 It took his insightful book "Bobos In Paradise" to even get the gig in the "Times".\u00c2\u00a0 David Brooks is not radically different from a musical act.\u00c2\u00a0 And, as his piece says, it’s hard to get noticed in today’s segmented society.<\/p>\n

Labels believe if they beat enough drums, run a track up Top Forty, that they’re going to sell a lot of records and establish a career.\u00c2\u00a0 Wrong.\u00c2\u00a0 Most people aren’t listening to Top Forty, and if they do, and become enamored, they only want the specific track.\u00c2\u00a0 And they’ve got no illusion the act’s follow-up will touch them in the same way, if they even hear it.<\/p>\n

This is where Clive Davis comes in.\u00c2\u00a0 He realizes it’s about more than a hit record.\u00c2\u00a0 That you’ve got to establish a platform, upon which you launch the record, which is only one element of the act’s stardom.<\/p>\n

How does Clive do it?\u00c2\u00a0 By choosing very few acts.\u00c2\u00a0 Usually only one at a time.\u00c2\u00a0 And then slowly introducing said act to the media, not the public, but the media.\u00c2\u00a0 Showcasing his unsigned performer at his Grammy party.\u00c2\u00a0 Letting the people who spread the word own the act for frequently over a year before the record is released.\u00c2\u00a0 Clive gets the press on his side.\u00c2\u00a0 And doesn’t put out the record until he’s convinced the insiders will sell it for him.\u00c2\u00a0 Everybody from the newspaper reporter to Oprah.\u00c2\u00a0 The career is managed.\u00c2\u00a0 We like the act.\u00c2\u00a0 No one hates Alicia Keys.\u00c2\u00a0 And no one hates Whitney Houston.\u00c2\u00a0 We might have a problem with Barry Manilow, but you can’t deny that Clive made Barry a star.\u00c2\u00a0 Barry left his fold for Concord Records but immediately returned.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s not about the disc, but the package!\u00c2\u00a0 You may not like Barry’s greatest hits of the decade series, but the public does.\u00c2\u00a0 Ditto for Rod Stewart’s execrable albums with Clive.\u00c2\u00a0 Not only do they sell, he’s doing boffo at the b.o.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, generals far younger than Clive are desirous of getting the music in the marketplace as soon as possible.\u00c2\u00a0 And milking it for all it’s worth.\u00c2\u00a0 They’re not managing the career so much as their short term bottom line.\u00c2\u00a0 And they’ve ended up in crisis.<\/p>\n

Still, Clive can’t sell many records.\u00c2\u00a0 There are no diamond awards in the music business anymore.\u00c2\u00a0 No Whitney Houston "Bodyguard" albums.\u00c2\u00a0 Gone, passe.\u00c2\u00a0 Clive’s just carved out a niche.\u00c2\u00a0 As has the jam band.\u00c2\u00a0 The jam band and the other touring denizens aren’t in search of a hit, they want fans, they want to stay alive, so they can tour ad infinitum.\u00c2\u00a0 They’re not looking to a Rhapsody-style service to save their bottom line, they’re oftentimes giving the music away.<\/p>\n

In conclusion:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. The public doesn’t want rental subscription today.\u00c2\u00a0 Maybe in the future, but not today.\u00c2\u00a0 If Steve Jobs anoints it, it will have a bigger impact, but it will not become dominant.<\/li>\n
  2. Subscription won’t save the majors, because superstars like those built on MTV are not coming back, you just can’t get enough mindshare, not enough people are paying attention to anything in this dense, incomprehensible, multi-choice world.\u00c2\u00a0 Hell, it took Katrina for most of the public to see the flaws of the Bush Presidency!<\/li>\n
  3. The record business is no longer about signing and releasing.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s about managing an act’s career.\u00c2\u00a0 Selling the act to the media and the public.\u00c2\u00a0 Aligning the audience with the performer, not the song.\u00c2\u00a0 It takes a lot of time.\u00c2\u00a0 The record must be solid, and radio-friendly.\u00c2\u00a0 The act must be likeable.<\/li>\n
  4. Stars are not the only musicians to inhabit the landscape.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s hard to become a star, you depend on the media and radio.\u00c2\u00a0 But you can be a working musician by going directly to your fans.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    We’re in a new era.\u00c2\u00a0 We’re never going back to the twentieth century.\u00c2\u00a0 No one can sell the tonnage he used to.\u00c2\u00a0 You can kick, scream and complain all you want, but you’d be better off spending time finding your place in the new landscape.<\/p>\n

    <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Clive Davis doesn’t break records, he breaks acts. In the latest issue of "Rolling Stone", Rick Rubin gushes about his Sonos with Rhapsody system.\u00c2\u00a0 Hate to tell you Rick, but you’re late to the game.\u00c2\u00a0 I’ve had one for years.\u00c2\u00a0 As have many rich techies.\u00c2\u00a0 But this does not mean this equipment and service is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1030","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-music-business"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p96vPs-gC","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1030","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1030"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1030\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1030"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1030"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lefsetz.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1030"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}