Harry Styles

Is he the biggest rock star in the world today?

YES!

Wait a second, how could this happen? Aren’t boy bands supposed to be a flash in the pan, purveying mindless drivel for prepubescent girls who promptly abandon their crush when they go through puberty, only to show up decades later for the reunion show?

Welcome to music in 2020. Where we’re completely divorced from what came before, the pre-internet era, and there’s no cohesive scene, despite the labels and the media telling us there is.

Today it’s all about longevity. Not the first week numbers, but whether you can last, whether you can sustain, and the irony is so many of the touted number ones don’t. Oh, you’ll see it in their bios, on their Wikipedia pages, it’s almost as worthless as a Grammy, anybody can debut at number one, but can they stay there?

Harry Styles does not have the best voice, not even in One Direction, but he knows the rule of rock and roll, that conception is more important than execution, that the talent is in the idea, not the raw skills, otherwise music would be dominated by the melisma monsters of “The Voice.”

They’ve even got the 808 in country now. If you were frozen in the seventies and defrosted today, you’d believe that melody was a lost art, that the beat was everything, and that a canned sound from the eighties is the only way to gain success, but Harry Styles proves this is patently untrue. I’m not saying that “Watermelon Sugar” has the lyrical complexity and underlying gravitas of anything on Bob Dylan’s “Rough and Rowdy Ways,” but it is a hell of a lot more listenable, it puts you in that late summer mood, where you lament the passing of those days in the sun, but you’ve still got the fumes of the feeling, which you want to maintain.

Harry Styles has been on a musical hejira, trying to find his identity, who he wants to be. Rather than just replicating what is on the chart, he pursued his own cobbled-together vision, a combination of SoCal seventies along with a modern pop sensibility, to the point where he’s making the most palatable music on the scene.

This should not be. We should all be listening to Jason Isbell, we should be hanging on every word of Drake and the Weeknd, not that they are not big in their own verticals, but Harry Styles seems to have transcended genre, he’s king of all the charts, everything but rock, because the wankers who control that format don’t want to admit this good-looking young ‘un beat the regulars at their own game.

In a world where you’re supposed to emerge fully-formed, Harry Styles has developed. Isn’t this the way it used to be, isn’t that why Warner Brothers stuck with you for five albums, because they believed you’d grow and find your groove? Styles’s solo debut, the eponymous “Harry Styles,” got all the publicity, but it’s the second LP, “Fine Line” which has burned its way into the public consciousness. And at this point, “Watermelon Sugar” is the fourth hit single from the LP. Anyone can come up with one hit, but to deliver four is nearly unheard of, and in the modern world these four hits have all hit the chart in less than a year, unlike the seventies and eighties when labels took two and a half years to dribble the hits out, if they could make the album last that long.

But it’s all image, right? Girls just want to look at and fantasize about Harry?

Wrong.

The official “Watermelon Sugar” video has 87+ million views on YouTube. And, then there’s another lyric version that has 52+ million views. Yet, the song has has 565+ million streams on Spotify, never mind competing services. So, all this crap about YouTube ripping off creators…it appears all active listeners are on dedicated music streaming services, and the fact that Harry is a hunk is irrelevant.

Repeatability. That’s the essence of a hit. Something you hear once and want to hear again. And the more you listen to it, the more you get into it, you’re entranced, that’s “Watermelon Sugar,” and it’s not even the best track on “Fine Line”…”Adore You,” which has 520+ million streams on Spotify, holds that title.

“Fine Line” is “Silk Degrees,” made by a more likable artist who has already had more sustained success than Boz Scaggs.

“Fine Line” is a Fleetwood Mac album, obviously hanging with Stevie Nicks has rubbed off on Harry.

It took years for people to acknowledge how great Michael Jackson’s
“Off the Wall” was. He was supposed to be a mindless boy band singer, but that album ultimately penetrated the culture, from blacks to whites, to the point where when “Thriller” was released, it dominated the culture, albeit helped by videos on MTV.

Every week there are new releases. You don’t know what to pay attention to. Maybe the work of old favorites, but after that? Furthermore, it takes so much effort to get into music, but it takes no effort to get into “Fine Line,” you get into it immediately.

The boomers, who are nearly irrelevant, who don’t count despite them telling us they do ad infinitum, would be positively stunned by “Fine Line.” Come on, just play it at a dinner party, everybody will immediately ask…”What is that”

Youngsters know Harry. But his lack of dominance has to do with the culture as opposed to his work. We live in a Tower of Babel society. It’s nearly impossible to take the temperature of not only the musical scene, not only the political scene, but any scene. So, something hiding in plain sight can be positively gigantic and you don’t know, you can’t feel it. But when you listen to “Fine Line” you do.

You may think I’m overstating the case. But the truth is Harry Styles is the little engine that could. Someone who everybody is aware of who has been dismissed out of the box, because the story is not sexy, despite his attractiveness he does not dominate TMZ, it’s not about the antics, but the music. No one is shooting him. He’s not making it by being featured on others’ music, nor importing rappers on his tracks to make them hits.

I’m not saying Harry’s team, both in the studio and at the label, don’t deserve credit for his success, but you need someone to guide you, to lead the team. It’s not like Harry worked with the producer du jour and employed their sound to dominate the chart, he did it his way, albeit with help, but almost no one can do it alone.

So, Harry Styles is this big. He may not be running for president, he may not be in the news every damn day, but he’s a part of 2020 culture. And if you don’t know, if you didn’t get the memo, you have now!

How far can you push people before they react?

It’s astounding to me how the minority rules, how the news reports, and nothing happens. This is what we studied in school. Nazi Germany, yes, Nazi Germany, and totalitarian regimes. Hell, it’s happening in Belarus as I write this, people are mad as hell and they’re not going to take it anymore.

Well, they said this in Hong Kong and then Xi cracked down. And despite some naysaying by western countries, he’s getting away with it. But the last time I checked the United States was a democracy, not a dictatorship.

I have no faith in the Democrats. Certainly not in Biden or Kamala, because they’re playing within the system and the system is broken. Come on, Trump breaks the law, admits his behavior in Ukraine and he’s impeached and…not convicted. Trump is on the side of the economy as opposed to the people and… The Donald always gets away with it. The Democrats say their hands are tied. But the public’s are not.

We are waiting for a trigger event. Just like the killing of George Floyd with Black Lives Matter. Maybe we’ll have to wait for the election, but it could happen before that. That’s the history of the world, discontent is festering and then a seemingly irrelevant event starts a conflagration.

This is not about Trump defenders. This is not about Fox News. The truth is, every single poll says there are more Democrats than Republicans. According to the Center for the Digital Future, Anderson Cooper is the most trusted source on cable for COVID-19 information. He gets 47%, Laura Ingraham gets 10%. Sean Hannity gets 17%. Tucker Carlson gets 17%. Meanwhile, Chris Cuomo gets 39% and Rachel Maddow gets 35%. In other words, the public knows the score, despite the bloviators on the right.

And people are scared. 26% of the public will not leave the house whatsoever before there is a vaccine. 45% won’t take a trip on a plane or a train. 42% won’t go to a movie or play. 33% won’t use a ride hailing service. Yes, if you follow the business news, Uber and Lyft have reported their numbers and investors are panicked and…come on, this is not a business story, this is a COVID-19 STORY!

In other words, most Americans are winning but they’re losing. After decades of false equivalences, after years of working the refs:

How Pro-Trump Forces Work the Refs in Silicon Valley

it looks like the right has more support than it does. So, you feel alone, but you’re not. What will it take to get you to take action?

You can vote. But that hasn’t worked for you in eons. Oh sure, the Democrats are better than the Republicans, but even the vaunted Obama didn’t speak to issues of income inequality. There’s no hope. Obama promised it, didn’t deliver it, and the only people believing in Biden and Harris have something to lose, when the truth is most people do not. When you’ve got nothing, you’ve got nothing to lose.

And now we have the post office situation. Just like with Ukraine, Trump admits its. He’s hobbling the post office in order to hobble the mail-in vote, even though he just registered for an absentee ballot.

The average citizen knows the score. Now the news is getting down to their level. Vice broke the story of the removal of sorting machines:

“The Post Office Is Deactivating Mail Sorting Machines Ahead of the Election”

And now TMZ is on about the removal of mailboxes in Manhattan today:

USPS Mailboxes Removed In NYC… As Trump’s War Rages On”

And they’re removing mailboxes in Oregon and Montana too. Hell, Senator Jon Tester wants answers:

Sen. Tester Presses USPS Following Reports of Removed Mailboxes

will he get them?

Government denials, government explanations, do not matter. Because Trump and his cronies have lost all credibility. Even if there are legitimate excuses, they won’t be accepted.

But, it’s now come down from the media giants to the hoi polloi. Their fire is being stoked.

As for the media giants…they’ve been no help in this crisis. They just report, that’s all they see as their role. Meanwhile, nothing happens. We’re supposed to believe in the election, which already seems unfair, never mind Trump putting his hand on the scale and admitting he’s unsure whether he’ll accept the results.

This is all hiding in plain sight. Trump says what he’s going to do and then he does it. How long do you expect this to continue?

So, there’s a disconnect between the press and the public, between the government and the public, between the police and the public. You can’t rely on institutions to solve your problems. You pay your taxes, but the corporations get relief, not you. Meanwhile, you’re about to be kicked out of your apartment. You’ve got no money in the bank, and after years of being told it’s your fault, you know nothing could be further from the truth.

It’s not like the U.S. is in uncharted waters, it’s not like this has never happened before, it just hasn’t happened in the U.S. We’ve been told forever that we’re better, that we’re superior, that it can’t happen here, meanwhile it is. Trump’s niece can write a book, insider Bolton too, and it makes no difference. If you’re expecting change, you’ve got another think coming.

Don’t shoot the messenger. I’m just saying the level of discontent in America is gigantic. And the pot is about to boil over. Trump is pushing it to the limit, taking away our freedoms, and he’s getting away with it. Those who believe in the rule of law are doing nothing, but those whom the rule of law is supposed to protect are fed up.

Come on. It took three and a half years of Trump until the killing of George Floyd caused international protests. Yes, not only here in the U.S., but around the world. And protests were even in rural areas. The level of discontent is just that high. This is not the sixties, this is the sixties on steroids!

So everything is calm, and then one day…POOF!

Hitler had defenders. The authoritarian always has defenders. But too often the majority is somnambulant. People awake too late. But in the information age, where everybody knows what is going on, where the president even tells us, things are different.

Come on, you read the news and you wince. You tell your spouse. Maybe a friend. And then it’s business as usual. Yesterday’s headline is replaced by today’s. But there is attrition. There does come a point when one more piece of straw, however light, breaks the camel’s back.

But let’s just say we have the election, that people don’t rise up before that. Well, no matter who wins in November there will be riots in the street. Never forget, the right has all the guns.

The bills are coming due. For the lack of diligence for decades. We were all hit in the face when we learned there was no preparation for the coronavirus. And instead of rebuilding infrastructure, Trump is tearing it down. Meanwhile, governors are afraid of him, and reopened their states way too early, even Newsom in California, he lacked the cojones to do the right thing. And now Covid is even rampant in the hinterlands.

Yes, a storm is brewing. I’m not being an alarmist. One event, which looks little on the surface, is gonna set our whole country on fire, just you wait.

The only person with universal mindshare is Donald Trump. However, as he tweets incessantly and lets Covid-19 run rampant some have tuned him out. But just as he’s sliding, he makes news with his statements re the Postal Service.

If you’re not making news, you’re not top of mind, you might as well not exist. It’s not “What have you done for me lately?,” it’s more like “What did you do for me this morning?”

Everybody has a voice. That does not mean every voice will be heard.

The internet makes people feel powerful.

The pre-internet powerful are not as powerful as they think. Twenty-plus years of the internet have resulted in the hoi polloi believing the stars, those in the news, are no different from them. Everybody’s reachable online. Hold your head too high and you’ll be brought right down.

People want to participate. This is the failure of Quibi. Passivity is for old folks, or for long form when you’re worn out.

Physical sports just don’t mean as much to the younger generation as they do to the older generation. Physical sports require physical skills, you’re limited by biology and they’re slow whereas online sports are very fast and anybody can triumph if they put in enough practice time. This is a sea change, it’s not only about baseball. Other than the NBA, which is intertwined with the culture, every other sport is at risk.

You make up your own truth.

People are either suspicious or gullible, you decide which tribe you’re a member of, either you believe nothing or everything.

It’s a software world. Hardware is fungible. Apple is the equivalent of Louis Vuitton, expensive, aspirational products for the elite and the wannabes. Everybody else, the masses, is satisfied with their PC and Android.

Privacy is not as big a deal as decision-makers believe it is, but it is rising in importance in the consciousness of the younger generation, which has been used to coughing up all its info all the time, and in a world where there’s a camera on every street corner and cookies follow you around the internet is there really any privacy left?

Masses may believe untruths. Whether it be QAnon or the ability to rekindle manufacturing in America.

There’s much more dissension and unrest on the street than institutions realize. Never forget, the internet has transformed almost every entity other than the government, which is light years behind. People cannot understand how there is gridlock in Washington when updates are downloading to their smartphones seemingly daily.

Everyone believes they’re entitled to a family even though oftentimes economics prevent them from supporting that family.

If you stick your head out it will be chopped off, whether you’re right or wrong, it doesn’t matter.

Is run by TV and social media. TV wins because it’s about story and there’s so much money that creators have multiple opportunities, but if you believe everybody will sign up for every service, you’re dreaming. Bundling is in your future. Not the cable of yore, but something more akin to Amazon Prime or the new Apple subscription bundle.

The only people unconcerned with opportunity are those who have it. While the wealthy and connected are fighting over the loaf, the rest of the country is fighting over crumbs, and when you go to bed hungry you’re unhappy.

The younger generation is concerned about climate change, all the things the boomers have put on the back burner. They’re already sacrificing, economically, unlike the boomers they’re willing to sacrifice for the good of the country, for the good of all.

No one has faith in anybody but themselves.

People pay the fees, on tickets, on hotel rooms, but disaffection is brewing.

Everybody hates the airlines.

It’s about the money. Anybody who prices one cent cheaper than someone else wins.

Comparison shopping rules. Every store is right next to another online. It’s all about price and trust.

Little will be different when Covid-19 recedes. We learned this after 9/11, the only thing that changed was it was harder to get on an airplane and into an office building. People will congregate, people will shake hands, and a limited number of movie theatres will open for event films.

Direct to video will be supplanted by direct to streaming service, whether it be Netflix or Disney or… VOD releases, where you have to pay for one film, just don’t feel enough like an event.

The only thing we have in common is our language. And our bodily needs. There is no cohesiveness, the internet blew it apart. Old school players think we live in a vertical world but the truth is it’s horizontal.

You express your identity via brands, they’re more trustworthy than people, certainly politicians, oftentimes entertainers.

Even though the country has shrunk, people have less of an idea what is happening other than where they live. Travel is expensive and the Great American Road Trip went the way of the Great American Novel. Now, you fly.

Luddites control mainstream media. They’re anti-computers, anti-screen time, they’re living in future shock and they believe technology is bad, meanwhile the younger generation ignores them. The generation gap is as wide as it was in the sixties.

Technology…you either get it or you don’t. Either you can troubleshoot a problem or you can’t. Either you know how to work the remote or you don’t. This is a huge dividing line, more than internet access itself in underserved communities. D.C. can’t be concerned with hackers because the elected don’t understand technology.

Nothing is secure, everything can be broken. But this does not mean you should not employ security tools. The harder it is to hack, the less interested the hackers are.

Celebrity gossip has been debased, it’s entertainment for the lower classes, the educated truly don’t care what minor celebrities they’re mostly unaware of are doing.

If you’re rich you show it. No one can hold back.

Social media stars are fungible. We need them, we just don’t need any specific one.

Virality is hard to achieve and can only go so far.

Is divided between those who will sacrifice for the future and those who won’t. Those who graduate from college and those who don’t. If you’re not willing to forgo momentary pleasures, your future is forever hobbled.

Stars are smaller than ever before. You might be number one on Spotify, you might generate a lot of ink in traditional media, but tons of people still might not know your name and those who do often only know your single, your album is for hard core fans.

There is no unity. You are on your own. Fight for recognition in your scene. That may be all you ever get.

If you’re not in the Spotify Top 50, if you’re not hip-hop or pop, you make your career on the road. Start practicing. Play wherever you can. All the criteria irrelevant in the pop world are incredibly relevant in the rest of the world. You MUST have a good voice. If you write great lyrics but your voice is a croak, hire somebody else to sing them. Roger Daltrey sang Pete Townshend’s words and Neil Peart, the drummer for Rush, wrote the lyrics. Auto-Tune, all the studio tricks, are irrelevant on the road. As for hard drives…the more real, the more honest your sound, the more people will relate to it. On the Top Forty, sheen is the goal. On the road, it’s edge, mistakes are cool, you want to show your humanity.

Every genre plays today. It’s not so much a long tail as a small head of hip-hop/pop and then everything else.

Only your hard core fans are interested in the album. Sure, if you’re in the Spotify Top 50, new fans might clamor for more and check out the rest of the album, but the truth is the acts on that chart are the most innovative, the ones who will release singles and three albums a year.

Are you satiating your fanbase or looking for something more? You can do good business giving people what they want. But oftentimes your business doesn’t grow. Sure, your fans are your greatest ambassadors, but if your music is niche, it will probably stay that way unless you switch it up.

We live in a mash-up culture. I.e. you can mix anything with anything. You can rap in country and you can sample rock in hip-hop. Broaden your horizons.

You need a manager. But if you’re starting out and are employing an amateur, DON’T SIGN ANY PAPER!

Agents only want you if they think they can find you gigs. But, despite all the hoopla about arena-level acts, most gigs are not booked for stars, but journeymen and up-and-comers. Agents need acts. Agents will leverage their power, especially with their other clients/roster, to build you.

You can be outrageous on stage, but you’d better not be that way in business. The music business is mature. When it comes to business, people expect you to be organized, with a team that can deliver. Don’t show up, break a contract and you’re out.

Credibility is the key to a long career. In other words, be wary of taking the short money at the cost of the long. Selling out may not matter if you’re in the Spotify Top 50, but it damn does if you’re not. Your fans are not momentary, but for life. They believe in you. If suddenly you prefer the corporation, if people get wind they’re paying more or losing access because the man comes first, you’re toast.

Ticket fees are here to stay. StubHub went all-in and sales went down.

Someone always bitches, isn’t that what the internet has proven? Your tickets will always be too expensive, the fees will be too high for a certain class of people and they’ll complain online. But if you don’t amplify their anger, it will dissipate. Anger wants an audience, without it it dies.

Production is irrelevant unless you’re selling arenas, where the belief is the audience expects it. But in smaller shows, the lack of production puts the focus on music, makes you more authentic.

More people can play, fewer can climb up the food chain.

Your first job is cutting through the noise. That’s a very slow process. If you’re not in it for the long haul, give up now. The Spotify Top 50 phenoms may make it their teens, you probably won’t make it until your thirties, if at all.

You need a hit. Every band should focus on creating that one indelible track that not only excites the base, but anybody who hears it. Who knew Portugal. The Man before “Feel It Still.” I don’t care how well you play, how cohesive your album, without a hit, forget it. Don’t confuse this with Tom Petty’s the A&R man didn’t hear a single. You’re not playing for the radio, you’re not adjusting your sound for anybody else, forget the radio, you’re speaking to the online audience, i.e. everybody, your music is available to all, you want to create something that people can talk about and share.

Artists know when they do something great. If you don’t think it’s great, it’s not. You’ve got to write crap before you can write well. You’ll look back at what you wrote in the past and wince. The key is to exercise the muscle, to the point where if you get inspired, you can lay it down.

Plenty of people will charge for advice, say they can help you, but the truth is you’ve got to help yourself.

Crossing over is nearly impossible. You’re in your genre, accept it.

Forget the traditional markers. Chart position, awards. Only you know how well your business is doing. You want to grow active fans, who sustain you. They don’t care about chart numbers, etc., they only care about you.

Touring numbers, not streams. It all comes down to the gross, and you can gauge how fervent your audience is by merch sales, how many bucks per head.

Don’t worry if you don’t get it, it’s not for you. The Spotify Top 50 is a sideshow, bigger than other shows, but there is no Big Top in the music business anymore.

Gain strength and then negotiate, the hotter you are, the better the terms.

You want to own as much as you can. The songs, the recordings…

Money breaks up bands. Figure it out early or people will get angry.

Money makes Top Forty records. That is the labels pay beaucoup bucks recording these tracks and ensuring they’re played on the radio. It’s a closed system, and unless you sign with a major you’re out.

The young audience is digital-savvy. It follows trends. If you’re young, or kids are your audience, you want to be where they are, this week TikTok, as opposed to terrestrial radio.

Successful acts communicate with their fans on a constant basis. Mystery is history. If you’re not willing to post on social media, don’t complain that you didn’t make it.

In the miasma of music, with so much stuff available, the old middle level acts have been dragged down in most cases. They were supported by label money and scarcity. Their revenue is not going down because streaming is the devil, but because with everything available their music is less desirable.

If you’re not breaking ground, don’t start. It’s too hard to get ahead today. You want to be great and you want to be innovative, otherwise you’ll have no longevity.