Tune in Saturday April 6th to Faction Talk, channel 103, at 4 PM East, 1 PM West.

If you miss the episode, you can hear it on demand on the SiriusXM app. Search: Lefsetz

Porn used to be a controlled business. Because of distribution. I.e. you could make a movie, but could you get it into a theatre? Probably not. Furthermore, it wasn’t so cheap to make a movie, you couldn’t be like Soderbergh and shoot it on your nonexistent iPhone.

And then came home video, first videocassettes and then DVDs. Suddenly, the barrier to entry was lower. Sure, you still had to shoot the movie, but maybe you did it on one of those newfangled video cameras instead of film, saving tons of money. And distribution was still a hurdle, but it was not a controlled environment with only a handful of theatres in even major markets. You could rent and buy videocassettes and then DVDs at your local video shop.

Needless to say, the market was saturated with new porn videos. And what did the usual suspect providers say…THEY WENT BERSERK! They couldn’t make as much money because of these interlopers. Star salaries went down. Companies went out of business and new corporations grew.

And then came the internet. Where porn is free. You only have to Google it.

But that might not be the experience you’re looking for. One to many is so last century, today everybody wants one to one. They want a connection, they want to feel special, that they’re a party of one and have a unique relationship with the talent.

Yes, porn providers are talent, just like Kim Kardashian is talent. They may not know how to play an instrument, but they certainly know how to market their wares.

And then came OnlyFans.

Never forget, the entire payment situation has changed. Today’s younger generations, even as old as millennials, believe in transparency, whereas boomers and their forebears love an opaque payment system. Good luck figuring out what your royalties were in the old days of physical media. There was manufacturing, shipping, returns, free goods… Furthermore, the company and the royalty participant oftentimes had a different belief what the royalty rate was.

Kind of like in the days before Live Nation. In the old days of the concert business, you were paid in cash, you were never going to take a check, because you didn’t trust the promoter. And, it wasn’t always easy to get the money you deserved. Talk to any road dog of the past. They’ve all got a story of a promoter with a gun enforcing his position.

Now old people think the old paradigm still exists. That Spotify, et al, are screwing with their money, ripping them off. But this is patently untrue. These are public companies with records, digital leaves a trail, they pay what they say they do. Might not be as much as you want or think you deserve, but they live up to the contract.

And so does OnlyFans.

OnlyFans provides the infrastructure and gives creators eighty cents on the dollar. Yes, this is a better deal than the Apple App Store, never mind YouTube. It’s transparent. You don’t feel ripped-off. If you can get people to consume your content…

Now the traditional porn stars have been squeezed out, or their returns have been minimized, because of the competition. There used to be a limited number of physical appearances and fetishes you could choose from, now there’s a cornucopia. If you can think of it, there’s someone providing it.

So your next door neighbor is a porn star.

All you have to do is go on Instagram. Or TikTok. Or X. Or even better, Reddit. If you see someone flaunting their figure, look for the Linktree. That’s where you’ll find their OnlyFans handle.

You don’t expect them to give it away for free do you?

Well, in some cases they do, but it’s just a come on, to get you in the door.

So, on Reddit… There’s a group for every physical desire extant. Search the communities. I don’t want to know what your fetish is, just know that it’s represented on Reddit.

So your next door neighbor and seemingly millions like her all have communities on Reddit devoted to themselves, but they also cross-post to other communities. Some they qualify for, some they don’t. The goal is to intrigue the viewer so they’ll check out their OnlyFans. And pay.

So these women at home, church-going (oftentimes they advertise this), married, with families… They’re selling their bodies online.

Now let’s be clear, only a limited number can be successful. But there’s an endless supply of women trolling for cash. Unless they hit, they drop out after a couple of months. But some hit. And those that do and sustain can often make millions. Makes playing music for a living look like chump change.

So what makes these women porn stars? NOTHING! Just an internal desire to participate. There’s no judge, no gatekeeper saying you’re not attractive enough, or don’t have a good enough personality, or don’t create content that is erotically titillating to most people.

Everybody is cottage industry. The big porn companies mean about as much as the major music labels, even less. Because they’re selling for everyone, and it turns out that people prefer the niches. And they don’t care if you like who they do, they’re satiated, they have their favorites.

But it’s not only porn and it’s not only music, it’s every walk of life today. The barrier to entry is so low that the hoi polloi have decided to play. And the Boomers and Gen-X’ers who control media, who think they write the through line in society, who believe they’re tastemakers and are in control, are not. Which is why almost everybody in the media missed Trump in 2016, but he’s not the only thing they’ve missed.

Once again, it’s distribution. At the turn of the century the belief was that all these acts that were overlooked by the labels would emerge and succeed. This didn’t happen. But now it has. Because you can create on the cheap and distribute for a de minimis price and market for free. Do you think Mr. Beast buys Facebook ads? That’s for the old school. The key is to be so hot that people are drawn to you.

First you have to build a fire, and that’s more difficult than ever, and most people don’t want to make the effort. Believe me, your next door neighbor on OnlyFans just doesn’t open an account and wait for money to come in. She puts her punim and body everywhere she can think of. She casts a wide net. And it’s all from the bottom up. Which is what old media can’t understand. That people would rather get their news, their tips, all their information from alternative sources created by self-styled experts who are creating cottage industries.

Used to be that you thought you couldn’t play, now EVERYBODY can play and the traditional world can’t cope with it. You’ve got Lucian Grainge not wanting those with few streams getting paid. And Daniel Ek caving to his biggest supplier, or at least the most lucrative one. But Spotify isn’t the only place to play. It’s just another place you’ve got to be, like X, Instagram, TikTok, Reddit… Notice comes before monetization.

And there’s no OnlyFans woman who thinks she deserves attention. She knows she’s a saleswoman. She’s got to find a way to convince the consumer. Unlike in music where people believe since they’ve decided they’re musicians they’re entitled to attention and remuneration. What a laugh.

Sure, OnlyFans is down and dirty. But in the digital world everything is down and dirty. It’s either a one or a zero. A success or not. Get on your high horse at your peril. Either you’re connecting, or you’re not. Either you’re a winner, or a loser.

And the OnlyFans women pivot. If this isn’t working, they try something else. They don’t say the public is at fault.

And, once again, the OnlyFans women superserve their customers. Sure, there’s money in the monthly subscription, but even more in the upsell. You want to talk on the phone? That’s possible, all you have to do is pay. It might be someone in a bathrobe who looks nothing like the picture, someone at a phone bank, but the end hit is good enough that the man is happy, and keeps coming back. You see these OnlyFans women are selling fantasies, dreams. Which is what a musician is selling too, if they are successful. People want to listen and be taken away, to a better life. They want to feel better, and it’s your job to provide this.

But this isn’t the dream you believe in. You’re waiting for someone in Hollywood to anoint you, give you the standard rich and famous contract and expose you to everybody. Yeah, right. That dream is done. You’re on your own, like the OnlyFans girls.

Who don’t go to Congress for guaranteed income. They’re not even organized. And in truth, neither are musicians, it’s everybody for themselves. The truth is the world needs pictures and videos of naked women, but they might not need a picture of YOU! Ditto on music. We need music, but maybe not yours.

But why does everybody feel so entitled in music?

They keep starting news organizations that fail. No one says they’re providing a necessary service and deserve to be profitable. No, the public votes. And if they don’t like you… Most people believe that’s the end. Or they’re delusional.

If there’s a big national porn star who’s emerged on the scene in the past five years, I’m unaware of her. Porn is more profitable than ever, it’s just that the proceeds are going to different people, and the middleman and his surcharge has been squeezed out. The OnlyFans women are going straight to the customers. They’re not looking for print articles or TV spots, they don’t want to convince gatekeepers who don’t get it, they just want to get started and live by their wiles, figuring it out as they go along.

Yes, music is just like porn. And few want to accept it. Spotify, et al, are OnlyFans. The direct connection to the customer is there for the taking, nothing is standing in your way. But how do you convince people to become fans and pay you?

Porn is no longer casual. Making a video in your bedroom for the fun of it? Now it’s serious business, and only the strong survive. As for the rest? They fall by the wayside, there’s no sour grapes. They get tired of the effort or blame the populace for not getting it, just like so many musicians.

Once again, only the strong survive. And being talented is just part of the equation. How do you get into the customer’s brain? How do you get them to whip out their wallet? What is the special something that titillates them?

You’re no better than the porn star or the influencer. You’re all in the same business, which is seeking attention. Sure, you can go to work for the man, who might lay you off willy-nilly, or you can go into business for yourself. But not every small business survives. And the proprietors of small businesses devote all their time and energy to them. Quick, quiz the owner of the bodega, see how many hours they work.

This is the new reality. We read endless stories in the straight press about Beyoncé, but in truth many people will never listen to her music. They don’t care. They have other interests. The belief used to be that major media can convince the public. But that dream is dying. Hell, ESPN is failing. I thought people needed sports? Turns out that’s not true!

If you want to know how to make it in the music business, research OnlyFans. This is what they should be teaching at Berklee. Porn is the bleeding edge of consumerism. Everything starts from the bottom up these days. You’ve got to believe in yourself and make the effort and that still might not be enough.

But it is for some. And those are the ones we need.

Charlie Brusco discovered the Outlaws, got them signed to Arista and steered their successful career. After resuming an earlier stint as a concert promoter, Charlie then worked with Gary Rossington and ultimately reformed Lynyrd Skynyrd and then Charlie did the same with Tommy Shaw and Styx. Today Charlie continues to manage Styx and Dave Mason and more!

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/charlie-brusco/id1316200737?i=1000651409573

https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/9ff4fb19-54d4-41ae-ae7a-8a6f8d3dafa8/episodes/8d0463cd-b115-4982-b47a-8265e397bfe8/the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-charlie-brusco

“Tesla sales plunge far more than expected”: https://t.ly/1FSIB

A first mover advantage only gives you a head start, to maintain it you must continue to improve to stay ahead of the pack.

Tesla is selling old vehicles in a world where the new is everything. Elon Musk wants you to buy a Model T when the competition is selling spaceships. That’s Detroit’s core competence, exterior design. As for interiors and engineering, the Germans dominate here.

Needless to say, Volkswagen bumbled its early start in electric vehicles by not getting software right, by approaching its development like physical items. Software needs a single team and oftentimes fewer developers are better. VW had multiple teams, had to change overseers and its first autos had to be shipped sans features because they couldn’t get the software right.

As for BMW… It was early, then hit the brakes, but in the decade since the introduction of the Model S, BMW has now turned its efforts around:

“BMW Is a Surprise Winner in Electric Vehicles”: https://t.ly/McKp1

Now in truth, when it comes to luxury vehicles, most are leased. Meaning someone might have started out with a Tesla, but after three years they want something different. And for a long while there were no real options, but now there are. Furthermore, the BMWs and MBZs are far more luxurious, the Tesla interiors are still spartan.

As for software… Musk’s self-driving software has been riddled with accidents and bad decisions, like not using LIDAR. Not everything Musk does is correct. And despite the introduction of a new system just recently, it is expensive and perception of the public is negative and perception is everything, just ask Joe Biden. And you have to pay attention anyway, not to mention that other manufacturers are gaining in self-driving.

And then there’s price. Despite Tesla’s lowering of cost to consumers, in China there are cheaper alternatives. And BYD and its brethren can introduce a new model in less than two years. Meanwhile, Musk over-promises and under-delivers. The new cheap Tesla? Keep waiting. Hell, the Cybertruck few wanted took years to finally come to market, which is like promising new housing and only building a high end needle skyscraper years late.

And then there’s Stellantis, which says its EVs are now profitable. Which is a black mark on GM and Ford, who just can’t get it right.

“Why Stellantis’s CEO Remains All-In on EVs as Others Retrench”: https://apple.news/ASZQPI5ITTF-eHdWaPZab7g

Needless to say, there’s an anti-EV drumbeat, led by the “Wall Street Journal” and the right. But for all those winter charging stories… Turns out most people charge at home and no one ever talks about gas car batteries dying in winter, cars not starting, which you know all about if you’ve ever lived north of the Mason-Dixon Line.

And you can’t fight progress. Remember all the people who said they wouldn’t give up their CDs? That MP3s sounded inferior? That they had to own things?

Change happens, and oftentimes the mainstream customer wakes up last. Worst is when the customer wakes up before the industry, which is what happened in music, with Napster. You’ve got to be a shark in business, never sleeping, always improving.

And in what kind of world can you have your CEO so distracted? Running a car company is a full-time job.

And then there’s Musk’s identity/personality. Tesla was a cult, new cars were sold by old customers testifying. Now you don’t want to testify because you’re going to be inundated with Elon hate. You stay quiet. In today’s multifarious world selling is done bottom-up, not top-down. There are just too many messages for yours to gain traction. What you need are acolytes, spreading the word.

What happens to Tesla? Right now it’s too valuable for another manufacturer to swallow it. Maybe there can be a merger. Because Tesla’s software is still valuable, and could be put to good use by a competitor. Tesla’s core competency has always been software, not manufacturing. Apple doesn’t manufacture most of its products, why should Tesla?

And the bottom line is the U.S. is moribund. While we fight tribal wars, China and the rest of the world are taking great leaps forward. If you think everything starts and grows in the U.S. today, you’re plain wrong. Electric vehicles are surging in China and in Europe. It’s only a matter of when you drive an electric car. Do you even have a CD player anymore?

If you are an industry leader, you cannot rest on your laurels. You must continue to improve your product or others will eat your lunch, especially if there are legacy competitors who are given time to wake up.

We’ve learned this again and again in tech, where what you did yesterday does not matter today. Microsoft fell asleep. But now it has pivoted into storage a la AWS. Suddenly Apple is behind the eight ball on AI. How come Microsoft saw the future and Tim Cook did not?

This applies to all verticals. You might be a leader today, but you must continue to innovate and risk to be a leader tomorrow. And image is everything. You mess with it at your peril.